$XLV · David Lin · 2026-11-09
XLV 极度拉伸——相对标普500在100天内偏离约三个标准差，接近历史纪录；自6月以来的防御性轮动因盈利预测上修而加速。说话者自10月起做空，但这笔交易走势与其相反，需要重新评估，因为拉伸的资产可能继续拉伸。
逐段跳播
我们看到资金大规模轮动流入了医疗保健板块 XLV。医疗保健板块的相关性跌到了极其离谱的低位，这种低位我们有三四十年没见过了。所以，医疗保健板块开始走出与大盘其他部分不同的走势，你能看出轮动已经启动，随后金融板块也跟随医疗保健板块而动。
而且医疗保健板块还在上调盈利预期，盈利预测也在上调。医疗保健通常是一个防御性板块。所以，当高贝塔的品种遭到重挫时，你就会看到医疗保健这类防御性板块开始获得买盘支撑。情况正是如此。从六月起就一直在发生，而且还在加速。
You know, we saw a huge rotation into healthcare XLV. Correlations got you know, in healthcare just fell to real crazy lows that we haven't seen in 30 or 40 years. So, that what's what's healthcare started pulling trading away differently from how the rest of the broader market was trading, you could tell that the rotation had started and it followed in the financials after after healthcare.
But and healthcare also had they've been raising earnings expect earnings projections on top of that. So, you know, healthcare is typically a defensive sector. So, when you know, the the high beta stuff gets whacked you start seeing the the defensive sectors like healthcare start catching a bid.
That's exactly what happened. It's been happening since June and it accelerated.
我觉得这其实有点过头了。XLV 现在，我认为，相对于标普500在过去100天里已经达到三个标准差。所以，看起来很有吸引力。就在它不断拉伸的时候，它不可能拉伸得更多了，但它确实已经拉伸了，而过去三四个月里吸纳资金的主要就是医疗保健板块。
I think it's actually a little over the top. XLV is now I believe three standard deviations relative to the S&P 500 over the last 100 days. So, you know, it looks attractive. You know, just as it stretches I mean, it can't get more stretched, but it's it's it's stretched and that's been the predominant sucker of capital for the past you know, three to four months is healthcare.
但就像你说的，XLV 现在仍接近历史高点。这是否是一个机会，也许可以做这个配对交易的反向操作？也许开始做空一直在涨的，开始买入一直在跌的？
But to your point, the XLV is now near all-time high still. Is this an opportunity to maybe do with the reverse of that pair trade? Maybe start shorting what's been going up and start buying what's been coming down?
所以，答案是：我试过，但没成功。再说一次，已经拉伸的东西会拉伸得更厉害，实际上我现在就做空 XLV。我记得我从十月起就一直做空。这并没有奏效，走势对我不利。所以，希望随便哪天就能反转，但这笔交易需要重新评估，因为已经拉伸的东西会拉伸得更厉害。
所以，某个东西在短期内已经拉伸，并不意味着它不能继续走下去。
So, the answer is I've tried that and it's not hasn't worked out. Again, things that are stretched and get more stretched and actually I'm short XLV. I've been short since I believe uh uh October.
Um and um you know, that hasn't worked out. It's gone against me. So, you know, hopefully any day now, but um I that trade needs to be reassessed because again, what is stretched and get more stretched.
So, you know, just because something is, you know, stretched in the near term doesn't mean it can't it can't keep going.