XLY 目前位于一条上升趋势线以及104-105的关键支撑区间之上；进一步下跌是一种风险。相对 XLP，XLY 正处于2026年盘中新低，正在挑战其2025年3月的低点，这是一个看跌信号；盘中流动性尚未回流至非必需消费品股票。
逐段跳播
那我们来看一下 XLY 指数。首先，只看绝对走势图。这是 XLY，代表奢侈品消费板块，过去十五年的走势，重点看最近六年左右。疫情后的底部、2022年周期性熊市结束时的底部、2025年初那轮非常短的周期性熊市中的底部，然后是现在的位置。
我们几乎正好坐在趋势线上。我认为奢侈品板块从现在起需要证明自己的价值。我们必须极其小心，不能再继续下跌。XLY 近期的低点大约在104和105，而有一条上升通道线正好在测试我们当前的位置。
因此，我认为从现在到104或105这个区域是 XLY 指数的关键支撑区。我们不希望看到非必需消费品股进一步下跌。
So let's take a look at the XLY index. First, the absolute graph only. This is XLY for luxury consumer goods over the past fifteen years, and just look at the last six years or so.
The bottom since the pandemic, the bottom at the end of the cyclical bear market of 2022, the bottom in the very short cyclical bear market at the beginning of 2025, and then where we are now.
We are literally sitting right on this trend line . I think luxury goods need to prove their worth from here. We must be extremely careful about falling any further . The recent XLY lows were around 104 and 105, and we have an ascending channel line that is testing our current level exactly.
Therefore, I believe that the area from here to 104 or 105 is a critical support zone for the XLY index. We don't want to see consumer discretionary stocks fall any further.
这张图用两种不同方式展示了 XLY 相对 XLP 的表现。在这张图的上方，也就是上面那个面板，忽略了价格跳空。因此，我在 StockCharts 上维护了一个自定义指标，跟踪 XLY 相对 XLP 从开盘到收盘的表现。
我完全忽略昨天收盘到今天开盘之间发生的情况。所以，如果出现大幅向下跳空，它会显示在中间那个面板里。这个面板包含跳空。上面那个则忽略跳空。我经常发现，当市场疲软时，你会在早盘就开始看到盘中抛售；价格跳空往往涉及操纵，但你无法操纵交易时段内发生的抛售。
因此，我认为这张图非常重要。如果你回看2025年4月，标普处于最低点时，看看非必需消费品板块在盘中做了什么。它的表现远远超过核心消费板块股票。盘中，资金在强劲流入可选消费股。如果算上跳空，我们就不会注意到这一点，因为那个板块一直在向下跳空。
早上的感觉很差，但之后我们看到了反弹。所以，当我们开始看到盘中早段出现抛售时，我认为在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个看跌信号。当然，市场上还有其他因素需要考虑，但我不喜欢可选消费板块股票表现糟糕。
看看我们现在的位置。按日内交易计算，XLY 相对 XLP 的指标正在创下2026年新低。这不是一个好信号。我们现在正按日内交易基准挑战2025年3月创下的低点。这是必须改变的事情。
因此，我们不仅需要守住这条通道线或趋势线，还需要看到流动性在盘中重新流回可选消费股，而这是我们目前还没有看到的。
Here is a graph showing how XLY performs against XLP in two different ways. At the top of this chart, the top panel, price gaps are ignored . Therefore, I maintain a custom indicator on StockCharts , and I track the performance of XLY vs. XLP from the opening bell to the closing bell.
I completely ignore what happened between yesterday's closing and today's opening. Therefore, if we have a large downward gap, it appears in the middle panel . This panel includes gaps.
The one above ignores the gaps. I have often found that you start to see intraday selling early in the day when the market is weak; Price gaps often involve manipulation, but you cannot manipulate the selling that occurs during trading.
For this reason, I believe this graph is very important. If you look back to April 2025, when the S&P was at its lowest point, look at what the consumer discretionary stock market was doing during the day.
Its performance far outperformed that of core consumer sector stocks. During the day, capital was moving strongly into optional shares. We did not notice this if we included the gaps because that group continued with downward gaps.
The feeling was bad in the morning, but we were seeing a rebound afterward. So , when we start to see early sell-offs during the day, I think that's a bearish signal, all other things being equal .
Of course, there are other things in the market that we need to take into account, but I don't like it when optional sector stocks perform poorly. Look where we are now. Based on daily trading, the XLY vs. XLP index is recording new lows for 2026.
This is not a good indicator. We are now challenging the low we recorded in March 2025 on a daily trading basis. This is something that needs to change. Therefore, we not only need to maintain this channel line or trend line, but we need to see liquidity move back into the option stocks during the day, and that is something we have not seen yet.
这个频道对 $XLY 的历次判断
StockCharts TV 在这只股票上共 5 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。