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$XLY

$XLY · StockCharts TV · 2026-11-04

AI 摘要 · StockCharts TV

XLY 在2026年全年多次在同一阻力线处失败,随着其再度逼近超买,目前情况并无不同;但在周线对数图上,它正以更高的低点在该线处测试,处于上升趋势中,若突破将挑战今年年初的高点,并最终挑战年初峰值。其近期相对科技板块的领先地位暗示成长板块内部的轮动,这可能帮助标普维持纪录高位。

他说的是几个月内
《Tech Is Breaking Down. So What’s Keeping the S&P 500 Afloat?》
StockCharts TV发布 2026-11-04 · 4 段内容
17:02/ —打开原视频

逐段跳播

4 段内容

然后我还想看看 XLY 消费类基金,因为昨天,也就是周一,它是表现最好的。科技板块是表现最差的投资基金之一,而 XLY 作为另一个成长型同类基金却位居表现最佳之列,这种情况确实罕见。

所以我们经常听到板块之间的轮动,但成长股内部本身也可能存在一些轮动。如果这种情况持续下去,我们看到消费可选板块表现良好,那显然可能是标普指数能够继续维持在纪录高位附近的原因之一,但这需要付出努力,因为 XLY 基金以前就这样做过。

不是吗?整个2026年就是一个巨大的三角形,每次都在阻力位附近出现抛售,而在由这条上升趋势线和那条下降趋势线所代表的支撑位附近出现买入。因此,最近的反弹是在跌破最后一条上升趋势线、在7月支撑位附近盘整之后出现的,然后强势启动,回到同一条线上。

Then I want to look at the XLY consumer goods fund as well because yesterday, Monday, it was the best performer. It is truly rare to see this, where technology is one of the worst performing investment funds, while XLY, another growth counterpart, is among the best.

So we often hear about rotation between sectors, but there may also be some rotation within the growth stocks themselves. If this continues, and we see good performance from the consumer discretionary sector , then that could clearly be one of the reasons why the S&P index might continue to hold near its record levels, but it will take effort because the XLY fund has done this before.

Isn't that so? The entire year of 2026 was one huge triangle, with sell-offs near the resistance level each time, and buy-offs near the support level represented by this uptrend line and that downtrend line.

Therefore, the recent recovery came after breaking the last upward trend line, consolidating near the July support level , and then launching strongly to return to the same line.

所以问题是,现在会有什么不同?它们会直接回到之前失败的那条线,再次接近超买区域,对吧?到目前为止,还没有发生任何不同的事情。

So the question is, what will be different now? Will they go straight back to the same line where they failed before, approaching the overbought zone once again, right? Nothing different has happened so far.

当我们知道这在周线图上是什么样子时,这就变得更加重要。这张图是对数坐标。同样,同一条线正在被测试,同时低点不断抬高,并且仍处于上升趋势中。

It becomes even more important when we know how this looks on the weekly chart. This graph is on a logarithmic scale. Again, the same line is being tested while recording higher bottom levels and is still in an upward trend.

过去几年里,我们可以看到最终的突破有多么重要,因为如果它成功做到这一点,就会挑战今年年初的高位,并最终——距离并不太远——也会挑战今年年初的峰值水平。

Over the past few years, we can see how important a breakthrough finally is, because if it manages to do that, it will challenge the high levels from early this year and, eventually , not too far off, the peak levels from early this year as well.

这个频道对 $XLY 的历次判断

StockCharts TV 在这只股票上共 6 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

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