XOM 处于强劲上升趋势,突破 170 阻力上方,170 可能成为支撑;在进一步反弹和上行浪之前,可能先回落至 170。即便原油已见顶或下跌,上行空间依然存在,因为像 XOM 和 Chevron 这样的综合石油巨头并未受损。股价处于三年高位,部分投资者可能获利了结。
逐段跳播
我今天选择埃克森美孚作为交易示例,是因为它的流动性更好,期权市场的活跃度更高,而且单从动能来看,它也在持续维持这轮上涨趋势。我也知道,油价可能已经处于高位,这可能导致价格出现一定回落。
坦白说,我们已经看到,即便是最近这波回升到95。但与此同时,这并没有影响到综合型公司,我指的是像埃克森美孚和雪佛龙这样的公司。所以我认为,即便原油已经见顶,或者也许已经下跌,这里仍然存在机会。
The reason I chose Exxon for today's trading example is that it is more liquid, with greater activity in the options market, and also in terms of sheer momentum, it continues to maintain this upward trend.
I know again that oil may be at a high level, which may lead to some price decline. We have seen that, frankly, even this recent rise back to 95. But at the same time, it has not affected integrated companies.
I mean companies like Exxon and Chevron. So, I think there is still an opportunity here even if crude oil has peaked or perhaps fallen.
我同意Dan的看法。我觉得这张图非常有意思,尤其是在大型综合型公司当中。事实上,这是综合型石油公司里规模最大的一家。你要记住,这是一种此消彼长的关系,因为它一方面受到生产成本的拖累,另一方面最终又受益于高炼油利润率。
所以这里存在一种拉扯。但与此同时,看看这只股票在年中的走势,从1月到大约6月和7月。当时形成了一个较大的“头肩”形态,作为一种可能的反转形态。同时还有一个较小的“头肩”形态,也是一种正在形成的反转形态。
在6月和7月之后的那次突破中,这两个形态都没有接近完成。随后我们迎来了这波非常强劲的向上拉升。因此,投资者似乎很难把股价压到某些支撑位之下。这并不意味着他们做不到,也不意味着这不会发生。
不过,股价突破了170这一水平,而该水平作为阻力位现在已经测试过一次、两次、三次。股价出现突破并小幅向上跳空,然后今天又因油价波动而遭到抛售。与此同时,我认为这是此前走势的延续。
我们看到了非常强劲的跳空走势,这可能只是一次小幅回调。从动能角度看,出现了轻微的下移。这只股票的隐含波动率相对稳定。我认为,也许如果有的话,你会看到一次技术性回调,回到170支撑位,然后再可能出现进一步反弹和一轮新的上涨。
需要注意的是,我们又回到了上涨之中,如你所知,今天我们处于或略高于3年来的最高水平。因此,我们正处在高位,对某些投资者来说,获利了结可能是合理的。
Well, I agree with Dan. I mean, I think this chart is really interesting, especially among large integrated companies. In fact, this is the largest among integrated oil companies .
You have to remember that it's a give and take , because it suffers from production costs and also benefits from high refining margins in the end. So, there's a kind of push and pull here.
But at the same time, look at this stock in the middle of the year, from January to approximately June and July. And you had the larger “head and shoulders” pattern as a possible reversal pattern forming.
And you had a smaller "head and shoulders" pattern as a reversal pattern that was also forming. Neither of them came close to completion at that breakthrough after the June and July period.
Then we got this very strong upward surge. Therefore, it seems as though it is very difficult for investors to push the stock below some of these support levels. This does not mean that they cannot do it.
That doesn't mean it won't happen. However, you get a breakout above the 170 level, which has now been tested once, twice, and three times as a resistance level. You get a breakout and a slight price gap upwards, then today's sell-off due to oil movements.
At the same time, I believe it is a continuation of what came before. We get very strong gap movements that may just be a slight pullback. From a momentum perspective, you get a slight downward shift.
The implied volatility is relatively stable for this stock. And I think perhaps, if anything, you will see a technical pullback to the 170 support level before a possible further bounce and a new upward wave.
It is important to note that we are back on the rise, as you know, where today we are at or slightly above the highest level in 3 years. Therefore, we are at high levels where taking profits may make sense for some investors.
是的,它们非常相似。是的,如你所知,我们正在挑战并有可能突破我认为是3月底的水平。我再次在这里找到了一些稳定性,并维持了这轮价格上涨。而且我认为,如你所知,当你观察这里市场的整体基调时,今天的交易示例就是买入这只股票。
持有股份是我们会做的事;我们在一些产品中持有埃克森美孚。因此,这是一项长期投资。所以,我认为这就是这里的概念。然后,卖出1月195美元的看涨期权,价格大约在3.75美元,这样就能在下一季度收取一些权利金。
而且,有意思的是,Ben看到了和我一样的东西。这使盈亏平衡点更接近170水平。我认为,如果我们在接下来一两个月看到一些疲软,170很可能是一个支撑位。再次强调,收取这笔权利金能让盈亏平衡点降到更接近该水平的位置,但如果我们维持价格上涨走势,它也提供了很强的上行空间。
Yes, they are very similar . Yes, as you know, we are challenging and potentially breaking through the levels of the end of March, I believe. Once again, I was able to find some stability here and maintain this upward price movement.
And I think, as you know, when you look at the general tone of the market here, the example of trading today is buying this stock. Owning a stake is something we do; we own Exxon in some of our products.
Therefore, it was a long-term investment. So, I think that's the concept here. Then, writing the purchase option for January at $195, at approximately $3.75 here, allows for the collection of some installments during the next quarter.
And again, it's interesting that Ben saw the same thing I saw. This brings the break-even point closer to the 170 level. I think if we see some weakness in the next month or two , 170 is likely to be a support level.
Again, collecting this premium allows the breakeven point to drop closer to that level, but it also gives a strong range for upward movement if we maintain the upward price action .
这个频道对 $XOM 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。