Zillow 是一个强劲的长期投资机会，驱动力来自其平台网络效应、高增长的租赁/按揭业务、利润率改善、低廉估值以及激进的股票回购。
逐段跳播
记住，我要找的是未来10年能给我带来10倍回报的股票。我并不太在意一只股票在未来一两个月里的价格是多少。我想知道的是，这家公司在未来十年会如何增长？会不会有营收增长、利润率扩张和估值倍数扩张的机会？
甚至可能还有股票回购的机会。对于一家公司，我主要看这四件事。
Remember, I'm looking for stocks that will give me 10x returns over the next 10 years. I don't really care what the price of a stock is in the next month or two. I want to know how the company will grow in the next decade ?
Will there be opportunities for revenue growth, margin expansion, and multiple expansion? There may even be an opportunity for a share buyback. In a company, I mainly look at these four things.
而这家公司充分具备所有这些特征。公司的营收增长率为17.7%，并且在稳步上升。它的估值非常突出。所以这是一个绝佳的估值倍数扩张机会。它的预期市盈率只有11倍，市自由现金流率只有15倍。随着它们削减运营成本，这些利润率很可能会上升。
And this company has all these characteristics in abundance. The company's revenue growth rate is 17.7% and it is increasing steadily. Its valuation is extraordinary. So this is an excellent opportunity for multiple expansion.
Its forward price-to- earnings multiple is only 11 and price-to-free cash flow is only 15. These margins are likely to increase as they reduce their operating costs.
我说的这只股票是Zillow。没错，它是市场上最被忽视的公司之一，因为它与房地产市场相关联。事实上，它的股价在过去一年里下跌了61%。
The stock I'm talking about is Zillow. Yes, one of the most overlooked companies in the market, because it is associated with the housing market. In fact, its share price has fallen 61% in the past year.
但在我看来，对于长期投资来说这是一个极好的价值，也是一个极好的买入价格。我很快就会详细讨论Zillow。
But in my opinion, it's a great value for a long-term investment and a great price to buy. I will discuss Zillow in detail very soon.
好，我们来谈谈Zillow，以及我喜欢这家公司的原因。这是一个典型的聚合平台业务。Zillow的价值在于它们掌控着客户需求。这意味着，如果你想卖房，或者你是一名经纪人、想接触到这些客户，你就必须去找Zillow。
这就是如今做生意的方式。数百万人来到它们的网站只是为了看房，而它们的价值就在于此。而这就是一个简单的聚合平台。
Okay, let's talk about Zillow and what I like about this company. This is a typical aggregator business. The value for Zillow is that they control customer demand. This means that if you want to sell a home, or if you're an agent and want to reach those customers, you have to go to Zillow.
This is how business is run these days. Millions of people come to their site just to view homes, and that's where their value lies. And this is a simple aggregator.
过去几年发生变化的是，以前它们只针对房子本身。现在它们说：“你知道吗？大多数人其实是从房贷开始搜索的。我能负担得起什么样的房子？而不只是我想买什么样的房子？月供是多少？我能贷到多少？”所以，这是业务的另一个基础。
What has changed in the last few years is that before they were only for the home. Now they're saying, "You know what? Most people actually start their search with a mortgage .
What kind of house can I afford? Not just what kind of house do I want to buy? What are the monthly payments? What do I qualify for?" So, this is another foundation of business.
然而，更大、更重要的问题是租房或租赁。如果你没有租过房，这可能会让你感到意外，但这是一个巨大的增长型业务，而且现在它已经成为人们寻找所有住房问题答案的地方。聚合的价值就在这里。
如果经纪人能为我们的生活做更多的事，那也是值得的。那些经纪人会去哪里寻找信息？世界上数百万个不同的城市里会有数百万个不同的网站吗？我认为会是一个像Zillow这样的网络。这就是为什么它的可持续性远高于市场上许多人目前的看法。
However, the bigger and more important issue is rent or rentals. And if you have n't rented a home , this may come as a surprise to you , but it's a huge growth business and it's now a place where people are looking for answers to all their housing questions.
This is where the value of aggregation lies. If agents do more for our lives, that's also worth it. Where will those agents look for information? Will there be millions of different websites in millions of different cities around the world?
I think it will be a network like Zillow. This is the reason why its sustainability is much greater than what many in the market currently think.
我们来看一些数字。这里绿色的部分是住宅业务。这是它们的传统业务。它从每笔住宅交易中抽取一小部分。经纪人基本上是在支付这笔费用。所以，它们对一些工具收取平台费，而根据与Zillow的协议，Zillow会从通过Zillow完成的销售中抽取一小部分。
所以，这不是一个巨大的增长型业务。8%的复合年增长率。这还可以。它们实际上正在提高自己在住宅房地产市场中的份额。
Let's look at some numbers. The green part here is residential business. This is their traditional business. It takes a small portion from each residential transaction. Agents are essentially paying this cost.
So, they have platform fees for some of their tools, and based on the agreement with Zillow, Zillow takes a small cut of the sales that are completed through Zillow. So, it's not a huge growth business. 8% compound annual growth rate.
That's okay. They are actually increasing their share in the residential housing market.
但我们先把它放一边，因为我提到了17.7%的增长率。增长实际上来自房贷和租赁业务。所以，这就是两个部分。租赁业务现在达到734美元，以34%的复合年增长率增长。这真的很惊人。而这些数字展示了Zillow平台的实力。
But let's hide it for now , because I mentioned the 17.7% growth rate. The growth is actually coming from the mortgage and rental business. So, these are the two parts. The rental business is now at $734, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 34%.
This is really amazing. And these numbers demonstrate the power of Zillow's platform.
看看它们收入的变化。在2024年3月季度，它们的同比增长只有6%。房地产市场正在加速，尽管它表现得并不太好。现在，股市在想，嘿，你知道吗？房贷利率在上升。这对Zillow来说会很糟糕。
短期内，这可能是对的。但随着时间的推移，人们总得卖掉自己的房子。我不认为市场在成交量方面会显著恶化。这最终才是对Zillow最重要的。所以，它会继续增长，尤其是因为它们的租赁业务在不断增长。
Look at this change in their income. In the March quarter of 2024, their growth was just 6% year- on-year. The housing market is accelerating, even though it's not doing very well.
Now, the stock market is thinking, hey, you know what? Mortgage rates are rising. This is going to be bad for Zillow. In the short term, this is probably true. But over time , people have to sell their homes.
I don't think the market will get significantly worse in terms of volume. That's ultimately what matters for Zillow. So, it will continue to grow, especially since their rental business is constantly growing.
但关于Zillow还有另一件事要记住。我们来看两件事。它们的营业利润和营业利润率，我现在把这个数字放到这里。它一直在持续改善。我谈到了营收增长，我们想要的是利润率增长以及估值倍数扩张的潜力。
好吗？所以，我们来看收入问题。这就是利润率扩张。2024年3月季度营业利润率为-13.5%。现在，它已经略微转正。好吗？我们希望它继续朝着正确的方向前进。它们已经宣布将裁员500名员工，也就是说它们在缩减员工规模。
But there's another thing to remember about Zillow. Let's look at two things. Their operating profit and operating margin, I'm bringing this number here right now. It has been continuously improved.
I talked about revenue growth, what we want is margin growth and the potential for multiple expansion. Okay ? So, we are looking at the income issue. This is margin expansion. Operating margin was -13.5% in the March 2024 quarter.
Now, it has become slightly positive. Okay? We want it to continue moving in the right direction. They have announced that they are laying off 500 employees, meaning they are reducing their workforce.
关于Zillow需要注意的一点是，它们的营业利润与自由现金流非常不同。所以，这里橙色的部分我们看到的是它们的营业利润。你可以看到营业利润只是略微为正。然而，自由现金流实际上是显著为正的。
所以，去年为2.58亿美元。它有所波动，但在过去几年里大致保持在同一趋势上。那么，这是什么原因呢？真正的原因是股权激励。现在，我想让你注意到股权激励要高得多。这是我对Zillow最大的批评之一，但现在它正在减少。
所以，在过去一年里，你可以看到它从4.23亿美元下降到3.63亿美元。它还需要进一步减少。它们在股权激励上花得太多了。不过，公司已经开始着手解决诸如减少员工人数、或许以不同方式支付薪酬等问题。
One thing to note about Zillow is that their operating profit is very different from their free cash flow. So, here in orange we see their operating profit. You can see that operating profit is very slightly positive.
However, free cash flow is actually significantly positive. So, $ 258 million in the last year. It has fluctuated a bit , but has remained roughly on the same trend over the past few years.
So, what is the reason for this ? And the real reason is stock- based compensation. Now, I want you to notice that stock- based compensation is much higher. This is one of my biggest criticisms of Zillow, but it is diminishing now.
So, in the last year, you've seen it go down from $423 million to $363 million. It needs to be reduced further. They are spending too much on stock-based compensation. However, the company has started working on issues such as reducing the number of employees and perhaps paying them differently.
所以，你可以看到我们的营收在增长，我们的利润率也在增长。现在，我们来谈谈那些估值倍数。所以，估值倍数已经大幅下降。现在，市销率只有2.2倍。如果你想看市自由现金流率，现在只有24倍。
我提到过，按预期计算大约是15倍。另一个看它的方式是 enterprise value to operating cash flow（企业价值与经营现金流之比）。现在，只有大约16倍。
所以，估值倍数在下降。这意味着，未来如果这是一个好的估值，并且经营继续良好，那么估值倍数有很大的上升机会，因为今天我们处在一个相当低的倍数上。
So, you can see that our revenue is growing , our margins are also growing. Now, let's talk about those multiples. So, the multiples have decreased significantly. Now, only 2.2 times sales.
If you want to look at the price to free cash flow, it is now only 24 times. I mentioned that on a forward basis, it's about 15 times. And another way to look at it is enterprise value to operating cash flow.
Now, only around 16 times. So, the multiple is decreasing. This means that in the future, if this is a good valuation and the operations continue well, there is a lot of opportunity for the multiple to increase because today we are at a fairly low multiple.
然而，另一个大问题是，随着估值倍数下降、经营改善，管理层正在用大量现金回购股票。所以，你可以看到，仅在过去几个季度里，我们就看到了大约8亿美元的回购。流通股数量已从大约2.42亿股减少到2500万股。
它们仍有增加回购的机会。它们的资产负债表上有净现金。所以，这是提高估值倍数的另一种方式。你提高了市盈率。当市场看到你以正确的方式向股东返还现金时，你就会从市场获得略好一些的估值。
However, another big issue is that as multiples come down and operations improve , management is using a lot of their cash to buy back shares. So, you can see that in the last few quarters alone, we're seeing about $800 million in buybacks.
The number of outstanding shares has decreased from approximately 242 million to 25 million. They still have the opportunity to increase that buyback. They have net cash on their balance sheet.
So, this is another way to increase the multiple. You increase the price-to- earnings multiple. When the market sees that you are returning cash to shareholders in the right way , you get a slightly better valuation from the market.
所以，如果你把这一切都看一遍并加总起来，再加上这是一个数万亿美元的市场这一事实。Zillow有机会在数万亿美元的美国住房市场中成为一家聚合平台或具有网络效应的企业。这是一个很棒的领域，而数字向我们表明，随着它们向房贷、住宅和租赁业务扩张，营收增长正在加速。
如果住宅业务开始好转，将对它们产生重大的积极影响。我们的利润率正在扩张。基于当前的估值倍数，有很多扩大估值倍数的机会。与此同时，管理层将能够用业务产生的自由现金流回购大量股票。
So, if you look at all of this and add it up , and the fact that this is a multi- trillion dollar market. Zillow has the opportunity to become an aggregator or network effect business in the multi- trillion dollar US housing market.
It's a great place to live and the numbers show us that revenue growth is accelerating as they expand into the mortgage, residential, and rental businesses. If the residential business starts to turn around, it will have a major positive impact for them.
Our margins are expanding. There are many opportunities to expand your multiple based on the current multiples. Meanwhile, management will be able to buy back a significant amount of shares with the free cash flow from the business.
所以，我非常看好 Zillow 目前的处境。我认为他们的业务不仅对购房者非常重要，对经纪人也是如此。如果你在找房子，没有比 Zillow 更好的技术来汇集你所需的各种资源，无论是制作户型图，还是为客户提供准确的信息。
这才是市场上真正的价格。这就是为什么我认为这是一只被低估的股票。过去一年，股价已下跌超过 60%。在我看来，这将成为长期成功的基础。在未来 5 到 10 年，我相信它的表现会跑赢市场。
So, I really like Zillow's current position. I think their business is very important not only for home buyers, but also for agents. If you're looking for a home, there's no better technology than Zillow to build all the resources you need to create floor plans or provide accurate information to customers.
This is the real price in the market. That's why I think it's an undervalued stock. The stock price has fallen by more than 60% in the past year. In my opinion, this is going to be the foundation for success in the long run.
In the next 5 to 10 years, I am sure it will outperform the market.
这个频道对 $Z 的历次判断
Asymmetric Investing by Travis Hoium 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。