看多 Zeta Global:Athena OS 与数据隐私相关公告提升了我的乐观情绪;营收增长正在加速,利润率改善,管理层目标到 2028 年保持 20% 以上增长。Athena 的财务数据未知,定制芯片也还很遥远,但在 30% 复合年增长率下 5 倍的 EV/sales 支撑未来十年十倍的潜力。
逐段跳播
在上周 Zeta Life 大会之前,我就已经对 Zeta Global 持乐观态度,但公司宣布的一些产品有可能在未来十年左右让其业务规模扩大十倍。
I was already optimistic about Zeta Global before last week's Zeta Life conference , but the company announced some products that could potentially increase its business size tenfold over the next decade or so.
这是我在“Asymmetric”组合中持有股份的公司之一。事实上,它在该组合中排名第二,这让我对公司的长期未来更加乐观。
Now, this is one of the companies in which I own shares within the "Asymmetric" portfolio. In fact, it ranks second in that portfolio, and that makes me more optimistic about the company’s long-term future .
今天,我想让我们回顾一下我们在 Zeta Global 大会上究竟了解到了什么,哪些是重要的,以及哪些事情可能在几年后产生更大的影响。
Today, I want us to review exactly what we learned at the Zeta Global Conference, what was important, and what things might have a greater impact a few years from now.
然而,这是一家年复一年持续实现累计营收增长的公司。他们的利润率正在改善,我们上周听到的一切都表明这一趋势将会延续。
However, this is a company that continues to achieve cumulative revenue growth year after year. Their profit margins are improving, and everything we heard last week indicates that this trend will continue.
因此,我认为 Zeta Global 的股票在未来十年增长十倍的潜力可能比这还要大。
Therefore, I believe the potential for Zeta Global's stock to grow tenfold over the next ten years may be even greater than that.
好,我们来简单介绍一下 Zeta Global 的背景,因为如果你还没有投资它,这可能是一家你没听说过的公司。
Okay, let's give a little background on Zeta Global because it's a company you may not have heard of if you're not already invested in it .
Zeta 帮助各类机构做出更好的决策,并在组织内部的营销渠道中提供主动式智能,以加速增长。正确的理解方式是,“Zeta”经营的是需求领域。
Zeta helps organizations make better decisions and deliver proactive intelligence across in-organization marketing channels to accelerate growth. The correct way to think about it is that " Zeta" operates in the demand field.
通过他们自己的数据以及从客户那里收集的数据,他们决定广告支出将投向哪里?会投向联网电视吗?会投向电子邮件营销吗?也许是短信营销。还有社交媒体渠道。
Through their own data and the data they collect from their customers, they decide where advertising spending will be directed? Will he go to the internet-connected television?
Will he go into email marketing? Perhaps SMS marketing. Also through social media channels.
Zeta 与全球最大的营销商合作,帮助他们更好地决定如何花营销费用。
Zeta works with the world’s largest marketers to help them make better decisions about how to spend their marketing money.
因此,他们不会自己创作创意内容,也就是广告中使用的图像或视频。相反,他们会决定这笔钱花在哪里能最好地投放这则广告。
Therefore, they will not be creating the creative content itself, i.e., the image or video that will be used in the advertisement. Instead, they will decide where that money can be best spent to place this advertisement.
所以,正如我所说,就目前状态而言,这是一项需求侧业务。这项业务表现非常好。看 2024 年 3 月这个季度,你可以看到营收增长翻倍,达到 37.6% 的速度。你可以看到,营收增长在过去几个季度一直在加速。
So , as I said, this is a demand-side business in its current state. This work is performing very well . Looking at the March 2024 quarter, you can see that revenue growth has doubled at a rate of 37.6%.
You can see that revenue growth has been accelerating in the last few quarters .
再看看这个营业利润。所以,他们的经营杠杆正在改善。他们正变得更具盈利能力。这应该会持续下去。管理层为 2028 年设定了一些目标,要提高调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA),并提高自由现金流利润率。
And look at this operating profit. So, their operational leverage is improving. They are becoming more profitable. This should continue. Management has set some goals for 2028, to improve adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization ( EBITDA), and to improve the free cash flow margin.
所以,一切都在朝着正确的方向发展。上周宣布的就是所谓的“Athena OS”。Athena OS 不仅会与业务的需方,也就是 Zeta Global 的传统部分相连,还会与供方相连。
So, everything is going in the right direction. What was announced last week is what is called " Athena OS". Athena OS will be linked not only to the demand side of the business, i.e., the traditional part of Zeta Global, but also to the supply side.
这样他们就能了解库存位置、订单位置和定价结构。但对 Zeta 来说,操作系统这一部分之所以叫“Zeta OS”,是因为它不只关乎营销,不只关乎创造需求,它还与供方相关。
So that they can understand inventory locations, order locations, and pricing structure. But for Zeta, the operating system component, the reason it's called " Zeta OS" is that it's not just about marketing.
It's not just about generating demand. It also relates to the supply side.
我们如何确保供给能满足你可用的需求?如何以最大盈利能力做到这一点?如何以最高效率做到这一点?这正是让这家公司真正有意思的地方。它扩大了潜在市场总量。
How can we ensure that the supply meets your available demand? How do you do that with maximum profitability? How do you do that with maximum efficiency? This is what makes it really interesting for the company. It expands the total addressable market.
我们并不确切知道这款特定产品的财务数据会是什么样。它会以试用版的形式发布。因此,我认为它对早期用户会是免费的。
We do not know exactly what the financial data for this particular product will be. It will be released as a trial version. Therefore, I think it will be free for early users.
但这类事情,随着合同的签署,以及顺带一提,与像 Palantir 这样的公司进行整合,将带来市场扩张,并提升他们能够为客户提供的价值。
But this is the kind of thing that, with the signing of contracts and with integration with companies like Palantir, by the way, will lead to market expansion and increased value that they will be able to offer their customers.
他们还宣布了所谓的 MCP。这与自动化聊天程序有关。
They also announced what is known as the MCP. This is what is related to automated chat programs.
所以,他们说他们将能够利用“Zeta”的信息做同样的事情。所以,现在如果你是在 ChatGPT 里做生意,你可以进入 ChatGPT 说:“好,联系 Zeta,制定一个计划,让我未来六个月在美国西北部的销售额增长30%。”这将利用来自“Zeta”的信息帮你做到这一点。
So, they say they will be able to do the same thing using "Zeta" information. So, now if ChatGPT is where you do your business, you can go into ChatGPT and say, "Okay, contact Zeta and develop a plan to increase my sales by 30% in the US Northwest over the next six months."
This will help you do that using information coming from "Zeta".
所以,这是一种用你常用的聊天程序访问“Zeta”平台的方式。我并不一定认为这会大幅改变游戏规则。我认为从增长角度看,操作系统更有意思。
So, it's a sort of way to access the "Zeta" platform using your traditional chat programs. I do n't necessarily think this changes the rules of the game much. I think the operating system is more interesting from a growth perspective.
不过,许多公司都在走这条 MCP 路线,不想被落下。因此,这对他们来说是一个值得关注的公告。
However, many companies are taking this MCP route and do not want to be left behind . Therefore, this is a noteworthy announcement for them.
另一件引起我注意的事是 Zeta Global 与 Fireworks 合作,利用 Nvidia Neumotron 推出新的专用 Athena 推理模型。
Another thing that caught my attention was Zeta Global's collaboration with Fireworks to unveil new specialized Athena inference models using Nvidia Neumotron.
Zeta 试图做的是让公司能够保持自己数据的私密性。所以,他们这里说的是它是用“NVIDIA NeMo”构建的。
What Zeta is trying to do is allow companies to keep their own data private. So, what they 're saying here is that it's built using "NVIDIA NeMo".
它是利用“Fireworks”基础设施进行精细调优的。“Athena”推理模型是为专门的“Athena”操作系统任务而设计的。
It was finely tuned using the "Fireworks" infrastructure . The "Athena" inference models are designed for specialized "Athena" operating system tasks.
因此,开发“Athena”系统涉及解读该领域的语言,并遵循品牌的语气。
Therefore, developing the "Athena" system involves interpreting the language of the domain and following the voice of the brand.
如果你是一家叫“Nike”的公司,你希望你的广告看起来与“Gap”不同,当然也与“LuluLemon”这样的竞争对手不同。因此,学习那种语气将非常重要,因为你不希望任何自动化聊天程序发出同样的语气。
If you are a company called "Nike," you want your advertisement to look different from " Gap," and of course different from competitors like " LuluLemon." Therefore, learning that voice will be really important because you don't want the same voice coming from any automated chat program.
格式和输出要求。因此,你可以看到模型本身的专业化如何能成为一个潜在的区分因素。“Athena”推理模型支持企业数据控制和主权要求。在这一点上,他们向机构提供的方案同样是:数据由你保留,那是你自己的数据。我们不会用这些数据来帮助训练我们自己的模型。
Format and output requirements. Therefore, you can see how the model's specialization itself can be a potential distinguishing factor. The "Athena" inference model supports enterprise data control and sovereign requirements.
Here too, their offer to institutions is that you keep your data, which is your own data. We will not use that data to help train our own models.
我认为这是一个非常有吸引力的方案。这也是他们邀请 Palantir 的 Alex Karp 到 Zeta Global 的舞台上演讲的原因之一。他们看待事物的方式非常相似。
I think this is a really compelling offer. This is one of the reasons why they invited Alex Karp from Palantir to perform on stage at Zeta Global. They look at things in a very similar way.
所以,我认为这是一款非常重磅产品的发布,而且可能对业务中营销一侧的更多公司具有吸引力,尤其是在“Athena”系统推出之后。
So , I think this is an announcement of a very prominent product and something that may be attractive to more companies on the marketing side of the business , especially with the launch of the " Athena" system.
那么,因为你在“Zeta”乃至“Palanter”中拥有这种数据主权,这会不会导致依赖度上升?在这一切都朝着正确方向推进的同时,他们宣布的第四件事是,他们将打造自己的定制芯片。
So, will this lead to increased reliance because you have this data sovereignty in "Zeta" and even in " Palanter"? With all of this moving in the right direction, the fourth thing they announced was that they would be building their own custom chips.
这看起来仍然有些遥远;也许要到2027年,我们才能真正看到那会是什么样子。我很有兴趣在未来听到更多关于这方面的消息。
This still seems somewhat far off; perhaps in 2027 we will really see what that will look like. I am interested in hearing more about this in the future.
这似乎属于那种可能让你把部分推理流程带到自己工作场所的事情。所以现在,如果你是一家营销公司,不必再把所有信息发送到云端、甚至可能发送到大型实验室,你现在可以保留对它的控制权。
It seems to be the kind of thing that might enable you to bring some of these inference processes to your workplace. So now, if you are a marketing company, instead of sending all your information to the cloud, and possibly to large laboratories, you can now retain control of it.
也许这就是一个简单的区分因素。再说一次,我并不认为这一定是个颠覆性的改变,但如果你把所有这些事情加在一起,它将继续扩大 Zeta 的业务市场。
Perhaps that is a simple distinguishing factor. Again, I don't think this is necessarily a game-changer, but if you add all of these things together, it will continue to expand Zeta's business market .
那么这最终会走向何方?对 Zeta 来说,需要关注的关键指标之一是它扩大客户群的能力,以及每位客户带来的收入金额。
And where will this end up ? One of the key metrics to monitor for Zeta is their ability to expand their customer base and the amount of revenue per customer.
因此,一个扩展客户能带来10万到10万美元,而一个超级扩展客户能带来超过100万美元的收入。他们现在拥有近2亿这样的客户,但这个数字会增加吗?
Therefore, an expanded client generates $100,000 to $100,000, and a hyper-expanded client generates more than $1 million in revenue. They now have nearly 200 million of these customers, but will that number increase?
正如我所说,他们专注于世界上一些最大的营销公司。过去一年他们做的事情之一,就是向规模稍小的细分市场扩张。他们的产品“Athena”变得更容易被小企业和代理机构使用。
As I said, they focused on some of the biggest marketing companies in the world. One of the things they did during the past year was expand into slightly smaller market segments .
Their product, "Athena," was made more accessible to small businesses as well as agencies.
关于他们的定价体系如何运作,还有很多需要了解。他们的大部分定价中有一个固定部分,然后还有一个可变部分,取决于通过“Athena”平台花费的金额。
There is still much to learn about how their pricing system works . There is a fixed portion in most of their prices, and then a variable portion that depends on the amount spent via the " Athena" platform.
但话说回来,这些正是将持续推动公司收入增长的因素。管理层计划至少到2028年都实现超过20%的增长。如果在下一份季报中听到一些相关更新,我不会感到意外。
But again, these are the things that will continue to drive the company's revenue growth. The management has plans to achieve growth exceeding 20% until at least 2028. I wouldn't be surprised to hear some updates about that in the next quarterly report.
不仅是在这些目标方面,我认为他们会在接下来的篇章中把这些目标延伸到2031年和2032年。
Not only with regard to those goals, but I think they will extend those goals to 2031 and 2032 in the coming chapters.
这最终带来的效果是,让“Zeta”的潜在业务规模大得多。如果这只是需求侧的工作,或者只是营销和广告工作,那么这项工作的规模最终会有一个上限。
What this ultimately does is make the potential business volume for "Zeta" much larger . If this were just demand-side work, or just marketing and advertising work, there would be a limit to the size of that work in the end.
我当然相信,这可能是一门未来几年增长超过20%的业务,但你现在要从加上“我会帮你更高效地运营业务”开始。我会帮你摆脱其他系统。构建库存和订购原材料有很多系统。如果这一切都能在“Zeta”内部完成,那么这是一个价值极高的定位,大公司可能会为此支付数百万甚至数千万美元来让运营更高效,因为这些公司的供应链部门里有很多人在工作。
I certainly believe it could be a business with over 20% growth over the next few years, but you start now by adding "I will help you run your business more efficiently." I will help you get rid of the other systems.
There are many systems for building inventory and ordering raw materials. If all of this can be done within " Zeta," then this is a very high-value position, and it is something that large companies might pay millions or tens of millions of dollars to make their operations more efficient, because there are many people working in the supply chain departments of those companies.
因此,这是值得关注的事情。正是这类事情、这类进展、这类广告,让我对 Zeta Global 更加乐观。正如我所说,这确实是“Ace Metric”组合中的第二大投资。
Therefore, it is something worth monitoring . This is the kind of thing, the kind of progress , the kind of advertising that makes me more optimistic about Zeta Global. As I said, this is indeed the second largest investment in the "Ace Metric" portfolio.
只是一家市值84亿美元的公司。目前的市销率仅为5倍,复合年增长率为30%。我很喜欢 Zeta 上周宣布的消息。在下一份季报中进一步了解这方面的情况会很有意思,因为他们正以非常快的速度开发产品。
Just a company with a market value of $8.4 billion. The enterprise value-to- sales ratio is only five at the moment, with a compound annual growth rate of 30%. I loved what Zeta announced last week.
It will be interesting to learn more about this in the next quarterly report, as they are developing their products at a very rapid pace .
“Athena”真正向部分客户推出才不过一年。我认为那是在2025年第二季度。
It has only been one year since "Athena" was actually launched to some of their customers. I believe that was in the second quarter of 2025.
观察点
这个频道对 $ZETA 的历次判断
Asymmetric Investing by Travis Hoium 在这只股票上共 3 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。