Zscaler值得买入；尽管增长放缓，但凭借强劲的有机基本面，其估值具有吸引力（按市盈率看略微低估，按现金流折现看则属合理）。
逐段跳播
Zscaler管理层表示，这是公司产品和服务需求的一大驱动因素。管理层对其前景持乐观态度，预计到2031年年度经常性收入至少达到80亿美元。
The Zscaler management team stated that this is a major driver of demand for the company's products and services. Management is optimistic about its prospects, expecting at least $8 billion in annual recurring revenue by 2031.
换个角度看，该公司过去12个月的收入略高于33亿美元。此外，管理层认为，在基于智能体的AI持续普及的乐观情景下，到2031年其年度经常性收入可能高达100亿美元。
To put that in perspective, the company generated just over $3.3 billion in revenue over the past 12 months. Furthermore, management believes that in a positive scenario where agent-based AI continues to proliferate, they could generate up to $10 billion in annual recurring revenue by 2031.
那么，在眼下10月这个时点，这是否让Zscaler股票成为长期投资者的买入机会？
So, does this make Zscaler stock a buying opportunity for long-term investors right now in October?
这正是我想回答的问题：把这些近期进展与公司的长期表现结合起来，对照其估值加以权衡，并判断它现在看起来是否是一只值得买入的股票。
This is the question I want to answer by combining these recent developments with the company’s long-term performance, weighing them against its valuation, and determining whether it looks like an attractive stock to buy now.
近年来，Zscaler一直是增长最快的网络安全公司之一。过去12个月，其总收入达到33亿美元。这高于2017年的约2.5亿美元。在此期间增长了略多于10倍。
Zscaler has been one of the fastest growing cybersecurity companies in recent years. Its total revenue reached $3.3 billion during the past 12 months. This is up from about $250 million in 2017.
It's a slightly more than 10-fold increase over that period.
如前所述，管理层乐观地认为，到2031年其收入可能达到100亿美元。跟踪Zscaler的华尔街分析师则略没那么乐观，他们认为这一预测偏于激进，而非保守。
As mentioned, management is optimistic that its revenues could reach $10 billion by 2031. Wall Street analysts who follow Zscaler are slightly less optimistic, suggesting that this forecast is ambitious rather than conservative.
事实上，跟踪Zscaler的华尔街分析师预计，其收入增速将在当前财年（截至2027年7月）大幅放缓至18%，然后在截至2028年的财年进一步放缓至16.5%。接着在截至2029年7月的财年进一步放缓至16.2%的增速，届时华尔街分析师预计Zscaler过去12个月的收入为53亿美元。
In fact, Wall Street analysts who follow Zscaler expect its revenue growth rate to slow significantly to 18% in the current fiscal year, which ends in July 2027, then slow further to 16.5% in the fiscal year ending in 2028.
It then slows further to a growth rate of 16.2% in the fiscal year ending in July 2029, at which point Wall Street analysts expect revenue of $5.3 billion for Zscaler over the past 12 months .
因此，跟踪Zscaler的分析师仍预计公司会增长，但增速达不到管理层预期的水平。好消息是，Zscaler的业务拥有可盈利的利润率。
Therefore, analysts who follow Zscaler still expect growth, but not at the level that management anticipates. The good news is that Zscaler's business operates with profitable profit margins.
管理层预计毛利率超过80%；至于现金流与销售额之比，公司过去12个月达到33.7%，较2019年有明显改善，当时现金流与销售额之比不到10%。
Management expects gross profit margins of more than 80% , and as for the cash flow to sales ratio, the company achieved 33.7% in the past 12 months, which is a significant improvement since 2019, when the cash flow to sales ratio was less than 10%.
因此，我喜欢看到收入与利润率同步增长的公司。对我来说，这证明市场对其产品和服务有强劲的内生需求，它们的增长并非只是因为加大了某一类别的支出，或是因为投放了更多广告、招聘了更多人，或是提供了优惠和折扣。
都不是这些原因。这是由市场对公司产品和服务的需求所驱动的内生收入增长。这是我在评估一家企业、考虑投资它时希望看到的东西。
Therefore, I like to see companies that grow their revenues and profit margins simultaneously. This is evidence for me that there is strong organic demand for their products and services, and that they are not growing just because they spend more money in a particular category, or because they advertise more, or hire more people, or offer deals and discounts.
It's none of those things. It is organic revenue growth driven by market demand for the company's products and services. This is what I like to see when I'm evaluating a business and thinking about investing in it .
Zscaler股票的远期市盈率为38，按照这一估值指标，这接近该股几年前交易区间的低端。以更低水平重新估值该公司的主要原因是增速放缓。要知道，前几年这项业务的增长要快得多，超过20%；而随着基于智能体的AI普及推动行业收入增长加快，分析师预计其收入增长将明显放缓。
Zscaler shares are trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 38, which is close to the lower end of what the stock has traded at, according to this valuation metric, several years ago.
The main reason for revaluing the company at a lower level is the slowdown in the growth rate. Remember that in previous years this business was growing much faster, by more than 20%, and analysts are predicting a significant slowdown in revenue growth as industry revenue growth accelerates as a result of the spread of agent AI.
因此，这些因素导致投资者对Zscaler的情绪下降。但近几个月来，股价大幅上涨。事实上，在触及每股125美元的低点后，Zscaler股价涨到了212美元以上。
Therefore , these forces have led to a decline in investor sentiment towards Zscaler. But in recent months , the stock price has risen significantly. In fact, after hitting a low of $125 per share, Zscaler's stock rose to over $212 .
我还用我的现金流折现估值模型计算了这只股票的公允价值，该模型考虑了我预计公司从今天到很长一段时期能产生多少现金流。然后我用加权平均资本成本把这些估算的现金流折现到今天，加权平均资本成本考虑了公司的债务成本和用资本资产定价模型计算出的股权成本。
我把这些综合起来得出一个公允价值，Zscaler 的公允价值是每股203美元。
I also calculated the fair value of the stock using my discounted cash flow valuation model, which takes into account how much cash flow I expect the company to generate between today and the very long term.
I then discount those estimated cash flows to the present day using the weighted average cost of capital, which takes into account the cost of the company's debt and the cost of equity using the capital asset pricing model.
I put all of that together to arrive at a fair value, which for Zscaler was $203 per share.
这与当前213美元的市场价格非常接近，只相差5%，而且在我的安全边际之内。因此，我会说，用我的现金流折现（DCF）模型来看，这只股票似乎正好处于其公允价值。用预期市盈率来看，我会说这只股票似乎略微被低估。
This is very close to the current market price of $213, with a difference of only 5% , and is within my safety margin. Therefore, I would say that using my discounted cash flow (DCF) model makes the stock appear to be valued at its fair value.
Using the forward price-to-earnings ratio, I would say the stock appears to be slightly undervalued .
因此，我上一次评估这家公司是在8月11日，当时我告诉投资者，它确实看起来像是一个买入机会。那时，这只股票的价格在每股160美元到170美元之间。现在它已经涨到每股212美元以上。
所以，自从我上次给出建议以来，它的表现一直不错。
Therefore, I last assessed the business on August 11, informing investors that it did indeed look like a buying opportunity. At that time, the stock was trading between $160 and $170 per share.
It has now risen to over $212 per share . So, it has performed well since my last recommendation.
今天，我将重申我对 Zscaler 股票的买入评级。它是我仍然评为买入机会的最后几只网络安全股之一，因为网络安全股整体在2026年大幅上涨。
Today , I will reaffirm my buy rating for Zscaler stock. It is one of the last cybersecurity stocks that I still rate as a buy opportunity because cybersecurity stocks as a whole have risen significantly in 2026.
Zscaler 仍然是我仍然评为买入机会的少数几只网络安全股之一。
Zscaler remains one of the few cybersecurity stocks that I still rate as a buying opportunity.
这个频道对 $ZS 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。