$ZTS · Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. · 2026-10-29
ZTS 看起来是一项有意思的价值投资：市盈率为 12，ROIC 高，尽管营收展望略有下调但利润率仍具盈利能力，年现金流约 20 亿美元、对应 420 亿美元市值，用于支持回购/分红。兽医制药寡头市场预计增长 10.73%；保守的 7% 增长加上回购/分红，合计回报约 12%，这需要接受制药板块的波动性以及公司在美股市场企稳方面的不确定性。文中引用了 Michael Perry 的“15 年 15%”观点，但说话者并未采纳，最终认为 ZTS 非常有意思，且与 AI 泡沫无关。
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我收到了很多关于 Zoetis 这家兽药公司的问题。当然，评论多就意味着这只股票价格低，而这只股票确实明显偏低。
I received many questions about Zoetis, a veterinary pharmaceutical company. Of course, when there are many comments, it means that the stock is low, and this stock is significantly low.
此外，Michael Perry 把它看作一个黄金投资机会，意味着未来十五年每年可能有 15% 的回报。这意味着你的投资五年后翻倍，十年后再翻倍，然后再翻倍。这相当于本金的 8 倍。
Moreover, Michael Perry sees it as a golden investment opportunity, implying potential returns of 15% annually for the next fifteen years. This means that your investment doubles after five years, then after ten years, and then doubles again. That is equivalent to 8 times the capital.
因此，研究这里的风险和回报非常有意思。短期内，他还把它看作一个转向价值股的机会，因为 AI 热潮转为衰退，资金流向价值更高的公司。
Therefore, studying the risks and returns here is very interesting. In the short term, he also sees it as an opportunity to shift towards value as the AI boom turns into a recession, and money flows into higher-value companies.
他们以 120 的价格回购了可转换股份，花了很多钱，但 Perry 说它们仍然有价值。
They repurchased convertible shares at 120, spending a lot of money, but Perry says they are still valuable.
公司表示不知道美国市场何时会稳定下来，是 6 个月、12 个月还是 18 个月。这正是华尔街讨厌的东西：不确定性。
The company says it does not know when the US markets will stabilize, whether in 6, 12 or 18 months. This is something Wall Street hates: uncertainty.
不过，还有股票回购和股息分配。Perry 还关注交易量和成交股数。所以，几年前买入的那些成长型投机者现在已经离场，目前持有这只股票的是不同的投资者。
However, there are share buybacks and dividend distributions. Perry also looks at trading volume and the amount of shares traded. So, those growth speculators who bought in a few years ago are now out, and we have different investors who currently own the stock.
此外，这是一项高质量的投资，投入资本回报率很高。我们来看看“Zoetis”能否成为你未来的存钱罐。
In addition, it is a high-quality investment with a high return on invested capital. Let's see if "Zoetis" can be a piggy bank for your future.
前景略有调整，收入小幅下降，但净利润仍然盈利，回报出色，利润率非常好。一切看起来都不错。调整后每股收益是 6，报告值是 5.5，这可以接受。
The outlook has been revised slightly, with a slight decrease in revenue, but net income remains profitable, returns are excellent, and margins are fantastic. Everything looks good.
The adjusted earnings per share are 6, and the reported amount is 5.5, which is acceptable.
但如果我们看历史，会发现随着市场增长，增长缓慢而稳定，净利润在增加，一切看起来都不错。资本支出稳定并略有增长，投入于新药。有两种药物会到期，最重要的是 2030 年和 2042 年。有 12 种新药在研发中，所以很有意思。
But if we look at history, we find slow and steady growth as the market grows, net income is increasing, and everything looks good. Capital expenditures are stable and growing slightly, with investment in new drugs.
There are two drugs that expire, most importantly in 2030 and 2042. There are 12 new drugs in development, so it's interesting.
重点在于回购，他们为此通过可转换债券借了一些钱，因为他们认为这些回购具有很高的价值。
The focus was on repurchases, where they borrowed some money to do so via convertible bonds because they saw them as having high value.
股价又跌了一点，但没关系。重点是股票回购、向股东恢复流动性和分配股息。当我们看现金流时，尽管表现疲弱，我们发现每年有 20 亿，其中更多分配给回购，股息分配略少。20 亿对 420 亿市值。有股息支付和回购增长。
The stock fell a little more, but that's okay. The focus is on share buybacks, restoring liquidity to shareholders, and distributing dividends. When we look at the cash flows, despite the weakness, we find 2 billion annually, more of which is allocated to repurchases, and slightly less to dividend distributions. 2 billion against a market value of 42 billion. There is dividend payout and repurchase growth.
好，但所有这些配上 12 倍的市盈率似乎很便宜。因为如果我们看市场预期，它们总是线性的，但仅兽药市场的增长预计就有 10.73%。这是一个寡头垄断，三家参与者，这很有意思。
Okay, but all that with a price-to-earnings ratio of 12 seems cheap. Because if we look at market expectations, they are always linear, but the growth of the veterinary pharmaceuticals market alone is expected at 10.73%.
It's an oligopoly, three players, which is interesting.
如果我们不看10%的增长，而是看7%，再加上回购和股息，那实际上意味着在此基础上还能多出12%。我们需要考虑高投入资本回报率。
If we don't look at 10% growth, but 7%, plus buybacks and dividends, that actually means an additional 12% on top of that. We need to think about a high return on invested capital.
市场不喜欢这只股票，所以Perry喜欢这种暴跌，并以低价买入这些他跟踪多年的股票。如果必须把它放进我们的分类里，那就放在这里。所以，这里12%应该更合适一些，但为了更保守，10%算是与市场相当的风险。
所以，我把价值这一侧稍微多归入价值投资这一类，这样我们可以长期跟踪它。所以，总的来说，这看起来很有意思。
The market doesn't like this stock, so Perry likes these crashes and buys these stocks he's been following for years at a bargain price. If we have to put it in our box, let's put it here.
So, 12% should be a little more here, but to be more conservative, 10% is a market-like risk. So, I'm crowding the value side a bit into the value investment box, so we can track it over time. So, in conclusion, it seems very interesting.
在制药行业，你总是不得不接受更多的波动。一款药没获批，这个那个，或者别的事情，竞争对手做了什么。所以，你必须接受这一点。你可以看到，这里就有波动。
In the pharmaceutical industry, you always have to accept more fluctuations there. A drug that doesn't get approval, this or that, something else, a competitor does this. So, you will have to accept that. You can see that here, fluctuations there.
它会继续下去，但如果你想要一门好生意、高投入资本回报率、好的仓位、盈利、增长、好的市场，一切都好，并且与AI泡沫之类的东西分开。
It will continue, but if you want a good business, a high return on invested capital, a good position, profitable, growing, a good market, everything good, and separate from AI bubbles or the like.
也许借助人工智能，他们能把情况稍微改善一点。这很有意思。我理解Barrick在这里的仓位看起来像是一个买入机会。我们已把它加入分类，随着时间推移，我们会了解更多、理解更多，谁知道呢，也许市场会给我们更好的机会。
Perhaps with artificial intelligence they can improve things a little. This is something very interesting. I understand that Barrick's position here looks like a buying opportunity.
We've added it to the box, and as time goes on we'll learn more, understand more, and who knows, maybe the market will give us better opportunities.