Joseph Carlson After Hours 对 $AMZN 的判断变化

频道资料 →本频道有 2 位标注的说话人:Michael Burry、Wall Street Journal article共 2 条
2026-09-28看涨
《Google Has Fallen Behind》
Amazon 多元化的实力与物流护城河使其在代理式商务中占据有利位置,当前估值合理。

接下来是 Amazon。这是持仓规模第四大的股票,占比 12%。这是一个 18 万美元的仓位,浮盈 5.5 万美元。很多人抱怨 Amazon,因为这只股票的走势确实不像其他很多公司那样强劲。

过去五年它有点落后,但如果我们看这里的图表,其实看起来并没有那么糟。Amazon 过去 5 年上涨了 50%。标普 500 上涨了约 70%。所以过去 5 年 Amazon 确实略有跑输。

但如果你在回调期间的任何时间段买入 Amazon——它给了你充足的时间买入——那么你就跑赢了标普 500。所以除非你正好在 5 年期的起点买入、之后再也没买过,否则你投资 Amazon 很可能都跑赢了标普 500。

此外,看 10 年维度,这才是它真正跑赢标普 500 的地方。Amazon 过去 10 年上涨了 495%。标普 500 上涨了大约一半。所以除非你只在最糟糕的时间段——也就是 5 年前股价平台期的那个时点——买入,那才是你唯一表现不佳的时间段。

这只股票实际上表现不错,而且是在风险较低的情况下做到的。

Now next up we have Amazon. This is holding number four in size, a 12% position. It's a $180,000 position, $55,000 in the green. Now, a lot of people have complained about Amazon because the stock really doesn't rock it up like a lot of other companies.

It's been a little bit of a lagard over the past five years, but if we look at the the chart here, it actually doesn't look that bad. Amazon is up 50% in the past 5 years. The S&P 500 is up around 70%.

So we have a little bit of underperformance in Amazon over the past 5 years. But if you invested in Amazon any time period during the dip, which it gave you ample time to buy, then then you've outperformed the S&P 500.

So unless you bought right at the beginning of the 5-year period and never bought again, you probably have outperformed the S&P 500 investing in Amazon. Furthermore, when we look at the 10 years, this is where it really outperforms the S&P 500.

Amazon is up 495% over the past 10 years. The S&P 500 is up around half of that. So unless you invested at the worst time period only only 5 years ago during this plateau of the stock price, that is really the only time period that you had poor performance.

The stock has actually done well and it's done so with a low amount of risk.

2026-08-24看涨
《I’m Buying $10,000 Of This Company Next》
亚马逊在每股200美元时值得买入,保守假设5年EPS增长16.1%、市盈率27倍,可带来19.3%的复合回报和2.4倍资金增长。

亚马逊,这也是一个非常大的仓位。现在,当我们看这三个最大的持仓时,我只想向你们展示它们之间的差距有多小。谷歌占13.8%,万事达卡占13.3%,亚马逊占12.8%。所以它们几乎是等权重的,然后无论它们朝哪个方向交易,无论哪一个表现好一周或一个月,那一个就会跃居首位。

到目前为止,谷歌已经保持了相当长一段时间,但亚马逊最近一直在上升。亚马逊是一个191,000美元的仓位,其中67,000美元是收益。现在,当我看亚马逊时,这只股票的买入目标价是每股200美元。

如果亚马逊先达到200美元,那么这家公司将获得那10,000美元。

Amazon, which is also a very big position. Now, when we look at these top three positions, I just want to show you how close together they are. Google's 13.8%, Mastercard's 13.3, and Amazon's 12.8.

So they're almost evenly weighted and then whatever direction they trade, whatever one has a good week or a good month, that one will leaprog to the top place position. So far, Google has held its own for quite some time, but Amazon has been working its way up more recently.

Amazon is a $191,000 position, $67,000 of that being gains. Now, when I look at Amazon, the buyin target for this one is at $200 per share. If Amazon reaches $200 first, then this company's getting the $10,000.