T3 Live 对 $GLD 的判断变化

I think the worst trade I did last week, well, not the worst with the worst option trade. Um which I would do was gold. I bought a little bit of gold options though right here.

On this day, I bought a little GLD 410s. I didn't buy GLD itself. I bought the 410s. I gave it I'm like, "Hey, you know, a higher low. It's looking okay. Down from 509. I didn't add to it and uh it's making a new low and you know, there's nothing you can do about that.

You know, if you trade if you buy gold every single month, you don't care. You know, if you buy silver every single month, port, you know, part of an asset allocation program, you're going to do just fine.

If you trade these things and you want to get paid in October, in September, then you have to be a little careful. This is below all the moving averages. It's a little bit a little bit vulnerable.

So when that's the case and I'm trying to anticipate, I do a little bit of options.

GLD. It's It's good that you asked. So GLD, I thought this is going to be a long-term top when we saw that parabolic uh move to the upside. I shorted silver, not GLD. I did silver short, but I didn't keep it all the way to to the 20 on this is a monthly chart.

So, I was actually a little bit surprised to see GLD bounce as hard as it did off that off that buy setup on the monthly chart. So, now that's the monthly. Here's the weekly. The weekly is not looking too hot.

We had that big bounce, but it's come it's come back in too much. So, now we want to see it reclaim that 20 and base a little bit. If it can do that, then maybe it has a chance of going back up.

But as is GLD does not look good. We have that little base pop drop and then base and then kind of a breakdown. So GLD is not looking too hot. If I was in it, if I was in it, I'd be worried.

I'd be probably out of it already. But if you're in it, see if it can base a little bit and then start to go back up. In which case, you can use today's low as your stop. But GLD um it's not something that I would be thrilled to own.

Unlike Palunteer, unlike you know Ethereum, Bitcoin, this thing might take a while before it's actually ready to go back up. If I were to show you GLD from if we go back to like 20 early part of my career really 20 2009 or I don't know when it topped out 2012.

I mean, it took this is 2011, August 2011. When did when did it exceed that high? It took I mean, okay, maybe it exceeded it a little bit here. But really, it took all the way until 24.

So, from 2011 till 2024 to get your money back. I mean, pretty much. And even here, that's like in 2020 when everything went higher. So it took like nine years, 9 to 15 years, 14 years for it to actually take out the top.

Not every top eventually gets taken out. Not right away. We saw that in the Q's also the NASDAQ when it topped out in in Mar in in 2020. I'm sorry, in 2001. It took 16 years for it to actually take out that high.

So, you know, I don't want you to think, oh, well, gold always goes up. Sure. But if it takes 20 years to get your money back, is is it worth it to hold? Not not always, right?

Usually is not. So GLD, I love the rally, but I am not thrilled about the pullback. It's hasn't been good. It's not something I would hold personally.