Cash Flow Machine | Mark Yegge | Wealth Architect 对 $JPM 的判断变化

2026-10-09看跌
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利率上升导致JPM的美国国债投资组合贬值,迫使其披露资产负债表受损,并造成盈利亏损。

JPMorgan 的股票,看看这个轻微的下跌趋势。我来告诉你会发生什么,这是我的看法。那就是,我们在加息。我们仍处在利率上升的环境中,尽管我认为本月讨论此事时他们加息的概率很小。

但他们一直在加息,现在利率处于2000年代初以来的最高水平。这意味着什么?当利率上升时,债券价格下跌,而像 JPMorgan Chase、Wells Fargo 和 Bank of America 这样的银行,资产负债表上都持有国债。

当他们持有国债而国债价值下降时,他们在公布业绩时就被迫披露资产负债表受到的损害。她受到了负面影响。所以,我认为当 JPMorgan 和其他银行开始公布业绩时,你会看到一些亏损,这对银行业来说不是好事。

JPMorgan stock, look at this slight downward trend. I will tell you what happens, in my opinion. That is, we are raising interest rates. We are still in an environment where interest rates are rising, although I believe the likelihood of them raising rates when the matter is discussed this month is slim.

But they were raising interest rates, and they are now at their highest levels since the early 2000s. What does that mean? When interest rates rise, bond prices fall, and banks like JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America all have Treasury bonds on their balance sheets.

When they own treasury bonds and their value decreases, they are forced to disclose the damage to their balance sheets when announcing their results. She is negatively affected.

So, I think you will see some losses when JPMorgan and other banks start announcing their results, and that will not be good for the banking sector.