Steve Miller 对 $NDX 的判断变化

2026-09-26
《US Stock Market - S&P 500 SPX NDX RUT & VIX Price Projections & Cycle Timing》
NDX出现罕见的周线动能未获确认,显示潜在疲弱,但短期动能仍为正,若突破30,782的双顶阻力,则有望上探31,300。

这与我们看纳斯达克指数时看到的情况不同,我稍后会展示给你看。那么,我们在这里看到的是动能下降的状况。当我在这里看纳斯达克NDX指数时,我们面对的是一个真正罕见的情况。我这么说,具体指的是我们的动能指标,即“反转探测器”。

我们看到的是缺乏确认,而这种情况在这张图上已经20年没有出现过。当我看着它,并试图更深入地分析时,我发现这个断裂相当急剧,正如你在这里看到的那样。随后纳斯达克指数经历了一次不错的回调。

然后它又开始非常迅速地攀升。这告诉我,这种罕见的缺乏确定性可能意味着这是一次假突破。

This is different from what we see when we look at the Nasdaq index, which I will show you in a few moments. So, what we are seeing here are conditions of declining momentum. When I look here at the Nasdaq NDX index, what we have is truly a rare case .

When I say that, I am specifically referring to our momentum indicator, the "reversal detector". What we have is a lack of confirmation that has not been present on this chart for 20 years.

When I look at it, and try to analyze it more deeply, I find that this fracture was quite sharp, just as you can see here. Then the Nasdaq index experienced a good correction. And then it started climbing again very quickly .

What this tells me is that this rare lack of certainty could mean that this was a false breakthrough.

2026-09-05
《US Stock Market Setting Up For Strong Q4? SPX & NDX Cycle & Chart Analysis With Projections》
预测纳斯达克100指数(NDX)技术面看跌,近期存在下行风险,可能触及特定水平,但若突破29,770点则预示看涨转变。

让我们看看纳斯达克和X指数。我说得有点多了,所以我会把VIX波动率指数留给我们的会员。我已经为你更新了VIX指数的图表。正如你所看到的,NDX指数上有多个卖出信号。

Let's take a look at the Nasdaq and X indices. I've gone on a bit too long, so I'll leave the VIX volatility index to our members. I have put up an updated chart for the VIX index there for you .

As you can see, there are multiple sell signals on the NDX index.

现在的问题是,这可能是早期底部,股市在区间底部触及最低点,还是我们可能会看到另一次显著下跌。存在大量相互矛盾的信息,这就是为什么我们处于一个波动的区间,回调不可能很深。我曾预测最大跌幅约为7.3%,现在我已根据所见进行了调整。

The question now is whether this could be an early bottom, with the stock market hitting its lowest point at the bottom of the range, or whether we might see another significant decline here.

There is a lot of conflicting information, and that is why we are in a fluctuating range with a correction that cannot go very deep at all . I had predicted the biggest drop of around 7.3%, and now I have adjusted that based on what I see.

2026-09-05
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