我持有 Nvidia。有一段视频。Nvidia 是一个长期标的。所以 Nvidia 会一直存在到 1 月。
I have an Nvidia There's a video. Okay , Nvidia is a long- term. So Nvidia will be around until January.
NVDA 这一页 20 条观点条目,其中 1 条方向发生变化。
我持有 Nvidia。有一段视频。Nvidia 是一个长期标的。所以 Nvidia 会一直存在到 1 月。
I have an Nvidia There's a video. Okay , Nvidia is a long- term. So Nvidia will be around until January.
我们能找到哪十只可能跑赢市场上最大的股票之一——Nvidia——的股票?本周我们能找到什么可以跑赢Nvidia表现的东西?
what are the ten stocks we can find that might outperform one of the biggest stocks in the market, Nvidia? What can we find this week that will outperform Nvidia's performance?
我们没有任何直接投资,只有一笔非常小的 Nvidia 空头头寸,这完全是基于估值,以及我认为他们无法维持 58% 的净利润率这一想法,尤其是随着事态的发展,不过,作为一个用户来说。
We don't have any direct investments except for a very small short position in Nvidia, which is based solely on valuation, and the idea that I do n't think they are able to maintain a net profit margin of 58%, especially as this has evolved , but you know, as a user.
Nvidia 上涨 2.5%。然而,到目前为止,我们还没有触及 Nvidia 的 227。我以为我们会测试那个水平。我们最终收在 222 美元。我们没有达到 227。我原本希望到周五能测试那个突破。
这一点我错了。我们没有到那里。我们只到了 222。
Nvidia up 2.5%. However, so far, we haven't hit 227 on Nvidia yet. I thought we would test that level. We ended up at $222. We didn't make it to 227. I was hoping to test that breakout by Friday.
I was wrong about that. We didn't get there. We only made it to 222.
我今天早上说过,我们不太可能达到 227。所以,我试着跟进,说:“好吧,看起来它开始了。”“走弱之类的。”我们仍然在 222。但我们下调评级是对的。今天我们在说的就是观望。
I said this morning that it was unlikely we'd make it to 227. So, I tried to follow through and said, "Okay , it looks like it's starting." " Weakens or something like that." We're still at 222.
But we were right to downgrade. Wait and see is what we were saying today.
但他们会把它们与“Nvidia”的网络设备配对。这真的很有意思,尤其是对 Nvidia 来说,它正在收购自身生态系统之外的网络设备,而如果这与苹果结合起来。
but they will pair them with networking equipment from "Nvidia". This is really interesting, especially for Nvidia, which is acquiring networking equipment outside of its own ecosystem, and if that's coupled with Apple.
到目前为止,这一切都还只是传闻,但我认为这对 Nvidia 来说将是一个重要的发展。
So far, this is all just a rumor, but I think it would be an important development for Nvidia.
黄仁勋也将出席那场宴会。因此,这个话题会被提出来讨论。这还没有结束,它还会继续,我并不真正知道结果会怎样,也不知道市场最终是否会因此崩溃。
Jensen Huang will also be present at that banquet. So, I mean, this topic will be put up for discussion. This is not the end. It will continue , and I don't really know what the outcome will be, or whether the market will eventually collapse because of it.
因为《华尔街日报》有一篇报道称,Meta 的马克·扎克伯格、黄仁勋和埃隆·马斯克曾反对此前一项关于人工智能行业监管的计划,而且人们担心中国在这一领域的主导地位。
Because there was a report in the Wall Street Journal saying that Mark Zuckerberg of Meta, Jensen Huang, and Elon Musk had objected to a previous plan regarding the regulation of the artificial intelligence industry , and there is concern about Chinese dominance in this field.
但 Nvidia 的算力要强 735 倍。
But Nvidia is 735 times more powerful,
Nvidia 的股价下跌了 1%。
Nvidia's stock fell by 1%.
这个人拥有防御性的护城河,但他本周表示,视频芯片的产量将翻倍,就在明年。这意味着什么,简直难以想象。我的意思是,这家公司已经在以惊人的速度增长,而我预计它的价值明年将翻倍,因为需求疯狂到极点。
This man has a defensive trench, yet he said this week that the video chips will double. By next year. It's unbelievable what that means. I mean, this company is growing at an incredible rate already, and I expect its value to double next year because the demand is insane.
Nvidia,刚刚脱离买点,随后回落,测试了 50 日移动均线,正试图沿右侧缓慢爬升。这是 AI 交易的王者。所以,如果你长期相信 AI 交易,Nvidia 可能是值得关注的一个。
Nvidia, uh you know, just off the buy point here and uh came back, tested the 50-day moving average, trying to creep up the right side. This is the king of the AI trade. So, if you believe in the AI trade over time, Nvidia is probably a good one to look at.
我认为 Nvidia 有望实现三位数的利润增长。
I think Nvidia is expected to achieve triple- digit profit growth.
在当前阶段,就价值与增长的对比而言,Nvidia 仍是明显的领先者。
Nvidia remains the clear leader in value compared to growth at this stage.
以及一些影响 MetaPlatforms 和 Nvidia 的事情。
as well as some things affecting MetaPlatforms and Nvidia.
我投资于 Nvidia、AMD、Credo 和 Astera Labs 等公司,以及 Coreweave 等现代云计算公司。
I invest in companies such as Nvidia, AMD, Credo and Astera Labs, as well as modern cloud computing companies such as Coreweave and others.
现在,我想谈的最后一件事是 Nvidia。Nvidia 目前的市值是 5.3 万亿美元,约合 220 美元。Jensen 是真正的巨人,不是吗?Jensen 是 AI 世界的猛兽。
Now, the last thing I want to talk about is Nvidia. Nvidia's market capitalization is currently $5.3 trillion , which is about $220. Jensen is a real giant, isn't it? Jensen is a beast in the AI world .
他随后在洛杉矶的一场技术会议上,直接把英伟达总裁黄仁勋请上了台,并被引述说:“机器人不会接管世界。”人工智能也不会接管。这一切都只是个把戏。
He then called Nvidia's president, Jensen Huang , directly onto the stage at a technology conference in Los Angeles, and was quoted as saying: "Robots will not take over the world."
Artificial intelligence will not take over. It's all just a trick.
这一1.2万亿美元的估值,相比去年3月该公司从包括英伟达、亚马逊和软银在内的投资者那里筹集1220亿美元时的8520亿美元有所上升。
This $ 1.2 trillion valuation represents a rise from $852 billion just last March when the company raised $122 billion from investors including Nvidia, Amazon and SoftBank.
我会掌控自己的数据。我不会允许模型访问它,这就是为什么 Nvidia、Palantir 以及许多其他公司都在谈论主权人工智能。
I will control my data. I will not allow models to access it, and that is why companies like Nvidia, Palantir, and many others are talking about sovereign artificial intelligence.
Nvidia 一个季度接一个季度地实现奇迹般的利润,但股价却始终原地踏步。是的,我认为如果你想拿 Nvidia 和它那种低盈利倍数下的先进模型来类比,那正是苹果当年的故事,不是吗?
别忘了,当时没有人认可它的 App Store,也没有人认可它实际上掌控了一切,然后苹果的市盈率有一天就翻了一倍。
Nvidia continues to achieve one miraculous quarterly profit after another, but the stock remains stuck in place. Yes, I think if you wanted to think about Nvidia and its advanced model with a low earnings multiple , that was Apple's story, wasn't it?
Remember that no one gave her credit for the App Store and the fact that she effectively controls everything, then Apple's price-to-earnings ratio doubled one day.
最近,我听到 Austin 说了类似这样的话:“我看到 Nvidia 很便宜,所以我不得不暂停一下,去买上 1 万美元的它。”
Recently, I heard Austin say something along the lines of, "I saw Nvidia was cheap, so I had to hit pause and go buy $10,000 worth of it."
就像,我不知道,大概两三个月前吧,Nvidia 大概在 1 块 9 毛、1 块 8 毛、1 块 9 毛 5 左右,差不多那样。
Like I don't know, maybe like two or three months ago, Nvidia was at like a buck 90, a buck 80, a buck 95, something like that.
然后你看看它从市盈率角度的历史估值。他们刚刚公布了极其亮眼的财报。我就想:“这说不通啊。我得在这里多持有一些 Nvidia。”
And you look at its like historical valuation from a price to earnings perspective. They just had a killer uh earnings results. And I was like, "This makes no sense. I got to own some more Nvidia here."
第一,他们现在正在洽谈进入服务器领域,使用自己的芯片,并实质上在 Apple 服务器中使用 Nvidia 的网络硬件与 Nvidia 竞争。
One, they're now in talks to get into servers to use their own chips and essentially compete with Nvidia using Nvidia's networking hardware in Apple servers.
数据中心这部分来自 The Information,你知道,现在基本上到处都在报道,但我觉得这非常有趣,因为就在几周前,The Information 报道了公司如何购买 Mac 硬件,Nvidia 实际上将 Apple 视为本地 AI 领域的一大竞争对手,因为他们有 DGX Spark 这款 AI 台式电脑,它甚至不如一台装有 Blackwell 6000 或 5090 的工作站,但最先进的 Mac mini 和 Mac Studio 型号,也就是那些芯片和内存配置对 AI 开发者最具吸引力的型号,已经缺货数月。
The data center piece is from the information and you know now it's essentially being reported uh all over the place but I find it very interesting because just a few weeks ago the information reported how companies are buying Mac hardware that uh Nvidia actually sees Apple as a big competitor in local AI because they have the DGX Spark an AI desktop computer which isn't even as good as just having a workstation with like a Blackwell 6000 or a 5090 in But most the most advanced models of Mac minis and Mac Studios, which have the chips and memory configurations most appealing to AI developers, have been out of stock for months.
但你可以看到,就连 Nvidia 上一季度的指引方式,他们显示毛利率为 75%,然后下一季度为 74%,股市就出现了恐慌。你们还记得,我们当时因为毛利率从 75% 降到 74% 就下跌了大约 4% 到 5%。
然后到了再下一年,是 73% 或 73.5%。所以我认为,人们很快就会习惯公司所承受的利润率水平。
But you can see even the way that like uh Nvidia, you know, was guided for last quarter, they show up 75% gross margins and then next quarter 74% gross margins and there's a panic in the stock market.
Like you guys remember, we were down like four or five% on the fact that gross margins were going from 75 to 74. Then the year after that 73% or 73 and a half%. So I think people get used to or accustomed to the margin that companies are taking on pretty quickly.
Nvidia在平价位置也见顶了。Nvidia的SKHENX短期看跌期权也奏效了。
Nvidia toppy on the dollar too. Short-term bare calls as well on Nvidia SKHENX that worked.
现在它略微下跌,但记住QQQ是由Nvidia、Tesla、Micron这些名字驱动的,这才是你需要关注的,才能理解这东西要往哪走。
Right now it is slightly down but remember the QQQ is driven by Nvidia Tesla Micron all those names and that's what you need to look at to understand where this thing is going.
Nvidia上周我在231讲过的明确卖出信号,它确实转向并崩了。不过,我们在这里从这个低点形成了一个略高的低点。还没有买入信号,但今天确实触及了210。其实不对,今天没触及212。
但我确实相信我们正朝着这个阻力位,也就是228到230这个水平,重新往上走。我们会一路震荡上行,直到第四季度突破。所以,这不是你现在想卖的一只,而是你想在回调时逐步吸纳的一只,但我不确定我们还能不能再见到200以下。它实在是一家太好的公司。好得太多太多了。
Nvidia clear sell sign I talked about last week at 231 and it did it turned and burned. However, we have a little bit of a higher low here from this one down here. No buy signal yet, but we did hit 210 today.
In fact, no, we didn't hit 212 today. But I do believe we're heading back up up to this resistance level, the 228 230 level. and we'll churn higher until we break out in Q4. So, this is not one you want to sell here and one you want to kind of accumulate on dips, but I don't know if we're going to get sub 200 again.
It's just too good a company. Way too good a company.
但到了最近这段时间,要找到增长已经非常困难。所以我很兴奋能谈谈我称之为AI之王的Nvidia。我们将深入剖析这家公司,真正把它拆解开来。我还把它输入了我们新的AI工具Charles,它基本上会谈谈这家公司到底有多强大。
But now in more recent times, it's been very hard to find growth. And so I'm very excited to talk about the king of AI, as I call it, Nvidia. And we're going to go through this company and really take it apart.
And I've also put it through our new AI, Charles, which is basically going to talk about how powerful this company really is.
Nvidia。这里仍然有一个缺口。有人说有大量的看涨期权买入。它升破 1277,给了你一个 1 美元的缺口回补。现在看看这里会发生什么。这是 21394。
Nvidia. Um there's still a gap here. Um some said there was a ton of of of call buying. Um this got above 1277 and gave you a dollar gap fill. Now we'll see what happens here. This is 21394.
如果你认为它会为了现金流回补这个缺口的剩余部分,那么它必须升破 21394,然后你还有 3 美元来补这个缺口。所以这就是 Nvidia 的那个缺口。
If you think that it's going to fill the rest of this gap for cash flow, well, hey, um it's got to get above 21394 and then you have $3 to fill the gap. So here is here is that gap in Nvidia.
所以这只是最前沿的模型,以及它们开发的速度。如果这个速度放缓,会带来什么影响?我最直接的反应是,Nvidia 在为模型开发所用的 GPU 中拥有最大的市场份额。Nvidia 的 GPU 是一流的,至少可以说领先竞争对手一步。
你甚至可以说,在推理和智能体 AI 以及其他类别上,它领先竞争对手两步。虽然也有其他选择,但如果你想开发最新最强的模型,Nvidia 在这一类别中拥有最大的市场份额。所以,如果模型开发放缓,短期内很可能会对 Nvidia 产生负面影响,对吧?
但关键在于,我不认为这对 Nvidia 的长期表现会是负面的。我认为这只会拉长支出周期,对吧?它延长了持续时间。我们一直在讨论,AI 支出可能会断崖式下跌,因为如此多的支出集中在如此短的时间内。
但这会做的是把它分散开来。与其把如此多的支出集中在短短几年内,它可以分散到更长的持续时间,更缓慢地逐步发展。
So this is just the most cutting edge models the development the pace at which they develop these models. If that slows down what impact could it have and most notably my initial reactions are that Nvidia which has the largest market share in GPUs utilized for model development.
So Nvidia's GPUs are bestin-class, arguably at least one step ahead of the competition. You could even argue it's two steps ahead of the competition on inferencing and agentic AI and other categories, there are other options, but if you want to develop the latest and greatest, Nvidia boasts the largest market share in that category.
So, if there's a slowdown in model development, that's likely to impact Nvidia negatively in the near term, right? But here's the thing. I don't expect that to be negative for Nvidia in the longer term.
I expect this just prolongs the spending, right? It extends the duration. We've been talking a lot about how AI spending could fall off a cliff because so much spending is happening in such a short amount of time.
But what this will do is kind of spread it out. Instead of having so much spending concentrated in so few years, it can be spread out in longer duration and develop this over time more slowly.
而 Nvidia 正在直线上涨。
and Nvidia is going straight up.
这就是 Jensen 今天早上说的,Elon 与那些研究机构之间,会稍微趋于平衡。
this is what Jensen was saying this morning, Elon, versus the research organizations, they'll be a little bit in balance.
我不认为 GPU 和 CPU 能达到 AGI。
I don't think GPUs and CPUs can get to AGI.
所以,我认为这正是 Nvidia 现在把部分芯片拆包的原因。人们对此大惊小怪。他们会说,天哪,Nvidia 为什么要拆包?围绕 Nvidia 拆包这件事闹得沸沸扬扬,基本上就是更小的芯片,这里说得过于简化了。
So, and I think that's exactly why Nvidia is now despacking some of their chips. People freak out about this. They're like, "Oh my gosh, why is Nvidia despacking?" giant freakout over uh Nvidia Dspec which is basically you know um smaller chips essentially uh oversimplifying here.