T3 Live 对 $SPY 的判断变化

2026-10-01
《Scott Redler’s #630club - LIVE Premarket Stock Market Update》
SPY 技术面疲弱/不稳,受新季度机械性资金流影响,预计将出现短线反弹。

顺便说一句,SPY 开始有点不稳了。我能理解为什么,人们在某种程度上是在降低风险。昨天你确实有机会管理一部分风险,当时它涨到 76695 上方,但未能守住。

by the way the spy is getting a little iffy. I could see why, you know, people are kind of risk down. Yesterday you did get a chance to um manage some of your risk when it uh traded above 76695 and failed to hold it.

但如果你做空了,你就得凭经验知道,新的月份、新的季度通常会带来一些资金流入。而且当天最后八分钟有 120 亿美元的卖出失衡。不是因为宏观原因之类的,而纯粹是机械性的。

But um if you went out short, you know, you just kind of had to know from experience that new month, new quarter usually gets some flows. And there was a selling balance of 12 billion to sell in the last eight minutes of the day. not because you know of macro reasons or this and it was just mechanical.

2026-09-16看涨
《Sami Abusaad & James Young: How to Become an Elite Trader》
由于近期突破具有可持续性,预计SPY将形成更高的低点并在随后走高。

SPY 大概率会上涨。如果你看标普500指数,这是一次非常看涨的走势。所以,是的,我们今天确实出现了一次跌破,但我相信这会引发长期看跌的止损吗?我不这么认为。因为那次突破,我们仍然处在那个突破区间之内。

而且注意这个突破是怎么形成的。我们最初先出现了一次跌破。于是所有人都做空或卖出了自己的仓位,然后我们就暴涨上去了。这通常是可持续的。所以,无论这里发生什么,我们最终应该会形成一个更高的低点,并在之后继续上涨。

也许需要一段时间,因为这里最终会像一个圆弧顶,一个看跌的顶部。但,我们拭目以待。

Probably the spy spy will move up. If you look at the the the S&P 500, this was a really bullish move. So, yeah, we we got a breakdown today, but do I believe it's going to lead to a long-term bearish stop?

I don't think so. Because of that breakout that we got, we're still inside of that breakout. And notice how the breakout formed. We initially got a breakdown. So, everybody went short or sold their positions and then we went exploded higher.

That's that's usually sustainable. So, whatever happens here, we should end up with a higher low and end up moving up later on. Maybe might take a while because this ends up being like a rounded top, bearish top. But, uh, we'll see.

2026-09-06
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