Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. 对 $SPY 的判断变化

2026-10-02看跌
《S&P 500 Intrinsic Value》
SPY 估值过高,缺乏安全边际;当前价格意味着回报不佳且风险偏高。

标普500指数被用作通用的投资基准。但它的内在价值是多少?

The S&P 500 index is used as a general investment benchmark. But what is its intrinsic value?

我们在寻找低风险、高回报的投资,从这个角度看,我们要处理的就是标普500指数。不过,回到接近历史高点的标普500指数,让我们深入探讨一下它的内在价值。

We are looking for low-risk, high-return investments, and from this perspective, we will be dealing with the S&P 500 index. However, returning to the S&P 500 index, which is close to its record highs, let's delve into its intrinsic value.

2026-09-15看跌
《above 5%... means, much more work for me...》
SPY 因 AI 泡沫推高盈利而被高估,其合理价值约为 3,000。

标普500指数不受影响,因为它正处于AI泡沫之中。

The S&P 500 is unaffected because it is in an AI bubble.

如果没有这个AI泡沫,标普500的盈利不会达到300,因为考虑到AI的情况、熵调整、OpenAI,这些盈利是虚假的。假设在合理衰退的情况下,现在盈利会是200,乘以合理的市盈率15,也就是历史平均水平。那么标普现在会在3,000点。

Without this AI bubble, S&P 500 earnings would not be at 300 because those are fake given the AI situation, the entropic adjustments, open AI. Let's say those with a fair recession would be at 200 now times a fair P ratio of 15, which is the historical average. The S&P now would be at 3,000.