$AAPL

AAPL equity is not worth buying here: 10 times sales and a $5 trillion market cap versus 2-6 times sales over 30 years, and it could be wiped out if rates rise 1-2% and destroy the economy. The AA Apple bond at 47 cents is attractive: ~72-73 if the 30-year Treasury returns to 4% in a recession, ~18%/year over 3 years.

Bearish
“Larry McDonald: S&P 500 Could Crash 30% Over the Next Year”
WealthionPublished Oct 16 · 9 passages

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9 passages
7:2240:28

I have an Apple bond behind me, Maggie. It is trading at 47 cents against the dollar. It's rated double A, Maggie. It was issued at a par value of 100. It's trading at 47 cents because it has a 2.55% coupon and interest rates have gone up , so the value of that bond has dropped a lot.

So the point is, if you were to buy something like that, would you want to buy Apple equity at 10 times sales, right? Market cap of $5 trillion. Buying it here is a bit of a fool's errand.

However, you can buy the bond that is trading at 47 cents. It's giving 2.55% , but your actual profit is much higher than that. But you know what? If for some reason the 30-year Treasury bond returns to 4% during a recession, that Apple bond will be worth about 72, 73.

And the main thing for the audience is that if this happens in the next 3 years, it will give 18% profit per year.

Apple has traded at 2 to 6 times sales for 30 years , not 10 times now. And, what is their new product ?

Now the top two stocks, Nvidia at 8 percent and Apple at about 6 percent, account for 13 percent of the S&P 500.

I come back, you were talking about Apple earlier, you sounded negative but again you were interested in Apple bonds, with the idea that bond yields would go down. Because it seems like Apple has become a common product now.

Their memory consumption is increasing. They do n't have any new products, yet bonds look attractive if Treasury yields fall, right?

Maggie, they're selling the phone for $3,400. I'm telling you, the first iPhone I bought cost seven hundred dollars. Although I admit, today's phones have a lot more memory, a lot more modern technology, and everything.

We are working a lot with these. These are the center of your life now , you understand.

But it's hard to believe, when McDonald's , Home Depot are down 35% , all the consumer companies including Harley-Davidson, then why is Apple at $5 trillion?

I've seen people do it, it's a pretty complicated trade, but if you buy a bond at 47, you can take the coupons. Let's say you invested one million dollars. You are getting coupons.

Maybe that's $30,000 out of a million. And you bought a two-year put option on Apple equity.

So, think about it a little. If the bond price is 47, the only way the bond can go down to 40 is if interest rates rise another 1 or 2 percent, which would destroy the economy and wipe out Apple stock , right ? Because they sell products directly to buyers.

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