AAPL 股票当前不值得买入：市销率10倍、市值5万亿美元，而过去30年市销率仅为2-6倍；若利率上升1-2%并摧毁经济，它可能被彻底抹去。而47美分的AA级苹果债券则具吸引力：若经济衰退中30年期美债收益率回到4%，价格约72-73，3年约合年化18%。
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我身后就有一张苹果债券，Maggie。它的交易价格是面值的47美分。它的评级是双A，Maggie。发行时的面值是100。现在交易在47美分，因为它票息是2.55%，而利率上升了，所以那张债券的价值大幅下跌。
I have an Apple bond behind me, Maggie. It is trading at 47 cents against the dollar. It's rated double A, Maggie. It was issued at a par value of 100. It's trading at 47 cents because it has a 2.55% coupon and interest rates have gone up , so the value of that bond has dropped a lot.
所以关键是，如果你要买这样的东西，你会想以10倍市销率买苹果股票吗？市值5万亿美元。在这里买入有点像是白费力气。不过，你可以买那张交易在47美分的债券。它给2.55%，但你的实际收益远高于此。
但你知道吗？如果因为某种原因，30年期美国国债在经济衰退期间回到4%，那张苹果债券大约会值72、73。对观众来说，最重要的是，如果这发生在未来3年内，每年能带来18%的收益。
So the point is, if you were to buy something like that, would you want to buy Apple equity at 10 times sales, right? Market cap of $5 trillion. Buying it here is a bit of a fool's errand.
However, you can buy the bond that is trading at 47 cents. It's giving 2.55% , but your actual profit is much higher than that. But you know what? If for some reason the 30-year Treasury bond returns to 4% during a recession, that Apple bond will be worth about 72, 73.
And the main thing for the audience is that if this happens in the next 3 years, it will give 18% profit per year.
苹果30年来市销率一直在2到6倍之间，不是现在的10倍。而且，他们的新产品是什么？
Apple has traded at 2 to 6 times sales for 30 years , not 10 times now. And, what is their new product ?
现在排名前两位的股票，Nvidia占8%，苹果约占6%，合计占标普500指数的13%。
Now the top two stocks, Nvidia at 8 percent and Apple at about 6 percent, account for 13 percent of the S&P 500.
我再说回来，你之前谈到苹果，你听起来是看空的，但你又对苹果债券感兴趣，想法是债券收益率会下降。因为看起来苹果现在变成了一个普通产品。他们的内存消耗在增加。他们没有任何新产品，不过如果国债收益率下降，债券看起来有吸引力，对吧？
I come back, you were talking about Apple earlier, you sounded negative but again you were interested in Apple bonds, with the idea that bond yields would go down. Because it seems like Apple has become a common product now.
Their memory consumption is increasing. They do n't have any new products, yet bonds look attractive if Treasury yields fall, right?
Maggie，他们把手机卖到3400美元。我跟你说，我买的第一部iPhone花了700美元。虽然我承认，今天的手机内存大得多，技术现代得多，什么都是。我们大量使用这些东西。它们现在是你生活的中心，你明白吧。
Maggie, they're selling the phone for $3,400. I'm telling you, the first iPhone I bought cost seven hundred dollars. Although I admit, today's phones have a lot more memory, a lot more modern technology, and everything.
We are working a lot with these. These are the center of your life now , you understand.
但很难相信，当麦当劳、Home Depot下跌35%，包括Harley-Davidson在内的所有消费类公司都这样时，那为什么苹果值5万亿美元？
But it's hard to believe, when McDonald's , Home Depot are down 35% , all the consumer companies including Harley-Davidson, then why is Apple at $5 trillion?
我见过有人这么做，这是相当复杂的交易，但如果你在47买入债券，你可以拿票息。假设你投资了100万美元。你在拿票息。也许100万里能拿到3万美元。然后你买入苹果股票的两年期看跌期权。
I've seen people do it, it's a pretty complicated trade, but if you buy a bond at 47, you can take the coupons. Let's say you invested one million dollars. You are getting coupons.
Maybe that's $30,000 out of a million. And you bought a two-year put option on Apple equity.
所以，稍微想想。如果债券价格是47，债券跌到40的唯一途径就是利率再上升1到2个百分点，那会摧毁经济，并让苹果股票归零，对吧？因为他们直接把产品卖给买家。
So, think about it a little. If the bond price is 47, the only way the bond can go down to 40 is if interest rates rise another 1 or 2 percent, which would destroy the economy and wipe out Apple stock , right ? Because they sell products directly to buyers.