AMD should beat its November 3 revenue guidance of ~$13 billion, likely at least $13.35 billion, as CPU and GPU demand accelerates growth from 41% toward 80%; rising margins should lift EPS far more than revenue, so analyst EPS estimates are too low. He sees $675-$775 in 30 days but will not add shares.
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And we'll talk about the potential scenarios for AMD stock, Meta, Celsius, ELF, SoFi, and Amazon.
So, we will discuss each one separately. Let's start with the biggest one, right? Let's start with AMD. Listen to what I think is going to happen with AMD. AMD will release their earnings report on November 3rd, right?
November 3rd, just after the market closed. So, this is a huge earnings report for AMD.
We know that AMD is now going through a phase of rapid revenue growth. We know that Lisa Su is selling these chips to large customers. And we know that AMD's importance in the GPU market is currently growing rapidly.
And especially because of their new generation of chips that they have brought to the market.
So, we're going to see a huge benefit of this. But additionally, CPUs have now moved from a one-to-eight ratio to a one-to-one ratio. So, we know that demand for CPUs is now growing much faster than most people expected, right? Even more than many experts in this industry.
And no one suddenly thinks of AMD as the company that people like Stacey Ruscone would have said a year and a half or two ago, "We don't know if we need them." And now suddenly it's like, "Oh my God, AMD is the best-positioned semiconductor company in the world to really be profitable in the next three to five years."
And now people are saying, "Gosh, we feel like we missed this opportunity, don't we?"
And a year or two ago when stocks were $100, people had the opportunity to invest, right? And now you look at that same stock and you see that it costs $600 to invest in it, right?
And it's going to get a lot more expensive to invest in these stocks soon, okay?
Now, my opinion is that if we think about 30 days from now, it's going to be a $675 to $775 stock, right? Now, personally speaking, would I bet on AMD stock that its price will be at a certain level after 30 days?
Not at all. I'm not doing that. I don't want to worry about these things. Because at the end of the day, regardless of AMD's earnings, I have no control over whether Wall Street buys or sells this stock in the next 30 days.
I cannot control what will happen overall in the stock market over the next 30 days. The market might, you know, collapse. The market may go up again. The Nasdaq 100 index could go much higher. I can't control any of this.
So, although I believe and there are some specific reasons that I am going to share with you, this stock will reach $675 in the next 30 days. I will not buy any more shares. I'm holding on to my huge multi-million dollar position in AMD, okay?
And I won't even go and buy a call option. There is no point in being greedy in this situation.
When you become greedy in investing, you are in big danger. I keep it simple. I say, "Is the stock a great opportunity?" Do I have the potential to make a lot of profit in the coming years because revenue is going here, earnings per share is going here, margins are going here? And I'll keep it simple, okay?
Now, when it comes to AMD, it's like this, okay? If you look at the average revenue estimate given by analysts, it's a little over $13 billion. This is a very important number because Lisa Su gave guidance of $13 billion, with a margin of plus or minus $300 million.
Now, in my experience following Lisa Su and her team's forecasts for years, I don't think they would release any numbers they weren't confident in. They will come and exceed the target, probably quite well, right?
So, my opinion is that they will earn at least around $13.35 billion. Because I don't think that when they made that forecast, they wouldn't at least want something that would exceed their best-case scenario expectations, right?
And since that time, we have to ask ourselves, has our confidence in AMD's ability to sell CPUs and GPUs increased or decreased? And the answer is, our confidence in AMD's ability to sell CPUs and GPUs has increased significantly.
So, the most likely outcome is that they will come in and exceed the target. And not just surpassing, but surpassing by quite a large margin, right?
And we were pretty much expecting such a stunning number from AMD. And if there's any quarter when that's most likely to happen, it's this upcoming quarter, right?
Now, the most exciting thing for AMD is that they are now in an accelerating phase in terms of revenue growth. So, 41 percent is expected, as I said, they will crush that number.
Then in the next quarter it's 57 percent, then 75 percent, then 77 percent, then 80 percent, right?
So, you have many, many more quarters ahead where growth will accelerate. And the question is, will we continue to accelerate growth beyond that particular quarter, right? It is very possible that AMD will be able to do this very effectively.
So, we could see at least five quarters of accelerated growth, but we could also see nine or ten quarters of accelerated growth over the next few years. And so, it's very exciting.
Now, there's another big thing here. Listen. This company will grow its earnings per share, or EPS, much more strongly in the coming quarters. In terms of revenue, they are positioned to do well in the future, but I think analysts are underestimating earnings per share.
In AMD's case, when you assume that their revenue is growing, earnings per share will grow much faster, for several reasons. First of all, it's not possible for AMD to increase the company's costs too much, right?
For example, if their revenue increases by 60% in one quarter, it doesn't mean they will increase all company expenses or employee salaries by 60%. That will never happen. The rate of expenditure will be very small compared to the revenue growth, right?
So, you will see that a large portion of the revenue coming to the top line is actually being added to net profit.
Moreover, AMD's margins are increasing and will increase significantly in the next 1 to 2 years. So, you need to understand that their profit margin is increasing many times over with each chip or product sold.
So, if you talk about earnings per share, if revenue increases by 60%, you will see that earnings per share have increased by 150-200%. This will make a huge difference, really huge, you understand?
So all of the EPS estimates you see are very low. And not just a little less, but by a pretty big margin, you understand?
Because AMD is clearly the biggest and then Meta.
Like, compare the things, right? AMD, I made a huge investment in it a few years ago. And look, what are the most attractive stocks for the coming year ? AMD, right? Among companies valued at over a trillion dollars, AMD is the most interesting for the coming year, right ?
You think I'm influencing AMD, which has a market cap of $1 trillion, but I'm not.
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