AMD 应能超越其 11 月 3 日给出的约 130 亿美元营收指引,很可能至少达到 133.5 亿美元,因 CPU 和 GPU 需求加速,增速从 41% 向 80% 迈进;利润率上升应使 EPS 的提升远超营收,因此分析师的 EPS 预期过低。他预计 30 天内达到 675–775 美元,但不会加仓。
逐段跳播
我们将讨论 AMD 股票、Meta、Celsius、ELF、SoFi 和 Amazon 的潜在情景。
And we'll talk about the potential scenarios for AMD stock, Meta, Celsius, ELF, SoFi, and Amazon.
所以,我们会逐一分别讨论。让我们从最大的那个开始,对吧?从 AMD 开始。听听我认为 AMD 会发生什么。AMD 将在11月3日发布财报,对吧?11月3日,就在收盘后。所以,这对 AMD 来说是一份非常重要的财报。
So, we will discuss each one separately. Let's start with the biggest one, right? Let's start with AMD. Listen to what I think is going to happen with AMD. AMD will release their earnings report on November 3rd, right?
November 3rd, just after the market closed. So, this is a huge earnings report for AMD.
我们知道 AMD 现在正处于营收快速增长的阶段。我们知道 Lisa Su 正在把这些芯片卖给大客户。我们也知道 AMD 在 GPU 市场的重要性目前正在迅速上升。尤其是因为他们推向市场的新一代芯片。
We know that AMD is now going through a phase of rapid revenue growth. We know that Lisa Su is selling these chips to large customers. And we know that AMD's importance in the GPU market is currently growing rapidly.
And especially because of their new generation of chips that they have brought to the market.
所以,我们将看到这带来的巨大好处。但此外,CPU 现在已经从一比八的比例变成了一比一的比例。所以,我们知道现在对 CPU 的需求增长得比大多数人预期的快得多,对吧?甚至比这个行业里的许多专家预期的还要快。
So, we're going to see a huge benefit of this. But additionally, CPUs have now moved from a one-to-eight ratio to a one-to-one ratio. So, we know that demand for CPUs is now growing much faster than most people expected, right? Even more than many experts in this industry.
没有人会突然把 AMD 想成那种一年半或两年前 Stacey Ruscone 这类人会说“我们不知道是否需要他们”的公司。而现在突然就变成:“天哪,AMD 是世界上定位最好的半导体公司,真正能在未来三到五年实现盈利。”
现在人们说:“天哪,我们感觉错过了这个机会,不是吗?”
And no one suddenly thinks of AMD as the company that people like Stacey Ruscone would have said a year and a half or two ago, "We don't know if we need them." And now suddenly it's like, "Oh my God, AMD is the best-positioned semiconductor company in the world to really be profitable in the next three to five years."
And now people are saying, "Gosh, we feel like we missed this opportunity, don't we?"
一两年前,当股价是100美元时,人们有机会投资,对吧?而现在你看同一只股票,发现投资它要花600美元,对吧?而且很快投资这些股票会变得贵得多,好吗?
And a year or two ago when stocks were $100, people had the opportunity to invest, right? And now you look at that same stock and you see that it costs $600 to invest in it, right?
And it's going to get a lot more expensive to invest in these stocks soon, okay?
现在,我的看法是,如果我们想30天后的情况,它会是一只675到775美元的股票,对吧?现在,就我个人而言,我会不会押注 AMD 股票在30天后价格会达到某个水平?完全不会。我不会那么做。
我不想为这些事情操心。因为归根结底,不管 AMD 的财报如何,我都无法控制华尔街在未来30天是买入还是卖出这只股票。我无法控制未来30天股市整体会发生什么。市场可能会崩盘。市场也可能再次上涨。
纳斯达克100指数可能涨得高得多。这些我都控制不了。
Now, my opinion is that if we think about 30 days from now, it's going to be a $675 to $775 stock, right? Now, personally speaking, would I bet on AMD stock that its price will be at a certain level after 30 days?
Not at all. I'm not doing that. I don't want to worry about these things. Because at the end of the day, regardless of AMD's earnings, I have no control over whether Wall Street buys or sells this stock in the next 30 days.
I cannot control what will happen overall in the stock market over the next 30 days. The market might, you know, collapse. The market may go up again. The Nasdaq 100 index could go much higher. I can't control any of this.
所以,尽管我相信——而且我有一些具体理由要跟你们分享——这只股票会在未来30天达到675美元,我不会再买入任何股票。我会继续持有我在 AMD 那笔数百万美元的巨额仓位,好吗?我甚至不会去买看涨期权。在这种情况下贪心没有意义。
So, although I believe and there are some specific reasons that I am going to share with you, this stock will reach $675 in the next 30 days. I will not buy any more shares. I'm holding on to my huge multi-million dollar position in AMD, okay?
And I won't even go and buy a call option. There is no point in being greedy in this situation.
当你在投资中变得贪心时,你就处于巨大的危险之中。我保持简单。我会问:“这只股票是不是一个绝佳的机会?”未来几年我有没有可能赚很多利润,因为营收在往这个方向走,每股收益在往这个方向走,利润率在往这个方向走?我会保持简单,好吗?
When you become greedy in investing, you are in big danger. I keep it simple. I say, "Is the stock a great opportunity?" Do I have the potential to make a lot of profit in the coming years because revenue is going here, earnings per share is going here, margins are going here? And I'll keep it simple, okay?
现在,说到 AMD,情况是这样的,好吗?如果你看分析师给出的平均营收预期,是略高于130亿美元。这是一个非常重要的数字,因为 Lisa Su 给出的指引是130亿美元,上下浮动3亿美元。
Now, when it comes to AMD, it's like this, okay? If you look at the average revenue estimate given by analysts, it's a little over $13 billion. This is a very important number because Lisa Su gave guidance of $13 billion, with a margin of plus or minus $300 million.
现在,根据我多年来跟踪 Lisa Su 及其团队预测的经验,我认为他们不会发布任何自己没有信心的数字。他们会来超越目标,而且很可能超越得相当好,对吧?
Now, in my experience following Lisa Su and her team's forecasts for years, I don't think they would release any numbers they weren't confident in. They will come and exceed the target, probably quite well, right?
所以,我的看法是,他们至少会赚到大约133.5亿美元。因为我认为,当他们做出那个预测时,他们不会至少想要一个能超过他们最乐观情景预期的结果,对吧?
So, my opinion is that they will earn at least around $13.35 billion. Because I don't think that when they made that forecast, they wouldn't at least want something that would exceed their best-case scenario expectations, right?
而自那以来,我们必须问自己,我们对 AMD 销售 CPU 和 GPU 能力的信心是增加了还是减少了?答案是,我们对 AMD 销售 CPU 和 GPU 能力的信心显著增加了。所以,最可能的结果是,他们会来超越目标。而且不只是超越,而是以相当大的幅度超越,对吧?
And since that time, we have to ask ourselves, has our confidence in AMD's ability to sell CPUs and GPUs increased or decreased? And the answer is, our confidence in AMD's ability to sell CPUs and GPUs has increased significantly.
So, the most likely outcome is that they will come in and exceed the target. And not just surpassing, but surpassing by quite a large margin, right?
我们基本上就期待 AMD 给出这样一个惊人的数字。而如果有一个季度最有可能发生这种情况,那就是即将到来的这个季度,对吧?
And we were pretty much expecting such a stunning number from AMD. And if there's any quarter when that's most likely to happen, it's this upcoming quarter, right?
现在,对 AMD 来说最令人兴奋的是,他们现在正处于营收增长加速的阶段。所以,正如我所说,预期是41%,他们会轻松碾压这个数字。然后下一季度是57%,再然后75%,再然后77%,再然后80%,对吧?
Now, the most exciting thing for AMD is that they are now in an accelerating phase in terms of revenue growth. So, 41 percent is expected, as I said, they will crush that number.
Then in the next quarter it's 57 percent, then 75 percent, then 77 percent, then 80 percent, right?
所以,前面还有很多很多个季度,增长会加速。问题是,我们会不会在那个特定季度之后继续加速增长,对吧?AMD 很有可能能够非常高效地做到这一点。所以,我们可能会看到至少五个季度的加速增长,但在未来几年里,我们也可能看到九个或十个季度的加速增长。所以,这非常令人兴奋。
So, you have many, many more quarters ahead where growth will accelerate. And the question is, will we continue to accelerate growth beyond that particular quarter, right? It is very possible that AMD will be able to do this very effectively.
So, we could see at least five quarters of accelerated growth, but we could also see nine or ten quarters of accelerated growth over the next few years. And so, it's very exciting.
现在,这里还有一件大事。听着。这家公司在未来几个季度的每股收益,也就是 EPS,会增长得强劲得多。在营收方面,它们未来也有望表现良好,但我认为分析师低估了每股收益。
Now, there's another big thing here. Listen. This company will grow its earnings per share, or EPS, much more strongly in the coming quarters. In terms of revenue, they are positioned to do well in the future, but I think analysts are underestimating earnings per share.
就 AMD 而言,当你假设其营收在增长时,每股收益会增长得快得多,原因有几个。首先,AMD 不可能把公司成本增加太多,对吧?比如,如果他们的营收在一个季度里增长60%,并不意味着他们会把所有公司开支或员工工资都增加60%。
那永远不会发生。支出的增速相比营收增长会非常小,对吧?所以你会看到,进入营收顶线的一大部分收入实际上被加到了净利润里。
In AMD's case, when you assume that their revenue is growing, earnings per share will grow much faster, for several reasons. First of all, it's not possible for AMD to increase the company's costs too much, right?
For example, if their revenue increases by 60% in one quarter, it doesn't mean they will increase all company expenses or employee salaries by 60%. That will never happen. The rate of expenditure will be very small compared to the revenue growth, right?
So, you will see that a large portion of the revenue coming to the top line is actually being added to net profit.
此外,AMD 的利润率正在上升,并将在未来1到2年里大幅上升。所以你需要明白,他们每卖出一块芯片或一件产品,利润率都在成倍提高。所以,如果谈每股收益,如果营收增长60%,你会看到每股收益增长了150%到200%。这会带来巨大的差别,真的巨大,你明白吗?
Moreover, AMD's margins are increasing and will increase significantly in the next 1 to 2 years. So, you need to understand that their profit margin is increasing many times over with each chip or product sold.
So, if you talk about earnings per share, if revenue increases by 60%, you will see that earnings per share have increased by 150-200%. This will make a huge difference, really huge, you understand?
所以你看到的所有 EPS 预期都非常低。而且不只是低一点点,而是低相当大的一截,你明白吗?
So all of the EPS estimates you see are very low. And not just a little less, but by a pretty big margin, you understand?
因为 AMD 显然是最重要的,其次是 Meta。
Because AMD is clearly the biggest and then Meta.
就像,比较一下这些东西,对吧?AMD,我几年前对它做了一笔巨大的投资。而且你看,来年最吸引人的股票是哪些?AMD,对吧?在市值超过一万亿美元的公司里,AMD 是来年最有趣的,对吧?
Like, compare the things, right? AMD, I made a huge investment in it a few years ago. And look, what are the most attractive stocks for the coming year ? AMD, right? Among companies valued at over a trillion dollars, AMD is the most interesting for the coming year, right ?
你觉得我在影响市值一万亿美元的 AMD,但我没有。
You think I'm influencing AMD, which has a market cap of $1 trillion, but I'm not.
观察点
这个频道对 $AMD 的历次判断
Financial Education 在这只股票上共 14 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。