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$AMZN

Joseph Carlson After Hours on $AMZN (Nov 4, 2026)

AI summary · Joseph Carlson After Hours

A data-center construction slowdown is not bearish for Amazon; scarce capacity makes its existing data centers more valuable and slows rivals equally. It could constrain future AWS growth, but would lift near-term cash flows and allow higher pricing.

BullishHe framed it in months
“The Stock Market Rotation Has Begun”
Joseph Carlson After HoursPublished Nov 4 · 8 passages

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8 passages
0:4724:33

We have companies like Amazon that are up 7% today.

What does this mean for companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta, the big builders of data centers?

Amazon's up a staggering 6.4% up to $266 in a single day. My position in Amazon's up $13,000 today. That's almost a 1%age point gain in my portfolio alone from Amazon.

When I evaluate companies like Mastercard or Amazon and I put them against SanDisk or Micron Technologies, it's true that right now SanDisk and Micron Technologies are making astronomical amounts of money.

So any bulls on those companies will point to their demand to how much money they're making today, how much cash flow they're making today. But if you pull up a longer chart, you see that they go through huge influxes of demand and then it cools off for a period.

Now, we don't know when that cooling off will happen. But what I do know is that these business models that have the consumer that have billions of customers on every single product that they release, these ones have a very enduring business model.

They're subscriptionbased, advertising based. When you use AWS, it's on a recurring basis. It grows year after year after year.

These companies control the world. Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, all of these companies have the products that you use every single day. To think that they're not going to be able to monetize that many connections, I think is absurd.

The investors that have priced the capex as low profitability capex or not high returns, I think is also crazy. These companies have an ability to monetize at an incredible rate and they're already showing that.

Oh man, this isn't good. This is not good for Google or Amazon or any of these companies that are spending all of this money to build data centers. I think what investors are missing here is part of the reason that Amazon, Google, and Meta raced ahead to get as much land as possible to negotiate as much power contracts as possible and to build as many data centers as possible as quick as possible is because they knew this type of thing was happening.

They knew that this was around the corner and Republicans lost a lot of power just overnight. So big tech companies knew that this was inevitable. They knew that they were in a lower regulatory environment where they could build and build quickly and they took full advantage of it.

The fact that this could be slowed down now isn't bearish for big tech companies. In fact, this makes data centers more scarce. This makes it difficult for new entrance to go through the red tape to get approved to go through the whole process that these big companies have been doing all along.

This is why neoclouds and companies trying to build out new data center demand are getting crushed today and the big tech companies are going up. The companies that already own the consumer and owned massive amounts of data centers, well, those just became more valuable.

This makes data centers more scarce. And when something becomes more scarce, it becomes more valuable. That means that companies that already have massive amounts of data centers that are operational, ones that are already approved and permitted and already going through construction are far more valuable than the companies trying to enter in the game today.

Those are the companies that I own, the big tech companies. And if it becomes nearly impossible to build another data center, all that means is that the companies that control all the computational power, all the intelligence in the world are the ones that have already built existing data centers.

So, when I read this, I don't see this as bearish on big tech. I I don't think that this is going to make the companies I own worth less.

The downside is it could constrain future growth in AWS or Google Cloud or Meta's capex investments, but all that would do is make it so their cash flows are higher in the short term and it would equally slow down every competitor.

And again, it would make the companies existing now be able to charge more for their existing data centers.

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Joseph Carlson After Hours has 5 calls on this stock; only the adjacent ones are shown.

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