$AMZN · Joseph Carlson After Hours · 2026-11-04
数据中心建设放缓对 Amazon 并非利空；产能稀缺反而使其现有数据中心更有价值，并同等拖慢竞争对手。这可能制约 AWS 未来的增长，但会提升近期现金流，并允许更高定价。
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我们有像 Amazon 这样的公司，今天上涨了7%。
We have companies like Amazon that are up 7% today.
这对 Microsoft、Google、Amazon 和 Meta 这些数据中心的大型建设者来说意味着什么？
What does this mean for companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta, the big builders of data centers?
Amazon 一天之内惊人地上涨了6.4%，达到266美元。我持有的 Amazon 仓位今天上涨了13,000美元。仅 Amazon 这一只股票就让我整个投资组合涨了将近1个百分点。
Amazon's up a staggering 6.4% up to $266 in a single day. My position in Amazon's up $13,000 today. That's almost a 1%age point gain in my portfolio alone from Amazon.
当我评估像 Mastercard 或 Amazon 这样的公司，并把它们与 SanDisk 或 Micron Technologies 对比时，确实，眼下 SanDisk 和 Micron Technologies 正在赚取天文数字般的利润。
所以看好这两家公司的人会拿它们的需求、它们今天赚了多少钱、今天产生了多少现金流来说事。但如果你拉出更长的走势图，就会看到它们会经历需求的大幅涌入，然后冷却一段时间。我们不知道这种冷却什么时候会发生。
但我确实知道的是，这些商业模式拥有消费者，每推出一款产品都有数十亿用户，这些公司拥有非常持久的商业模式。它们是订阅制的、广告驱动的。当你使用 AWS 时，它是按周期持续付费的。它年复一年地增长。
When I evaluate companies like Mastercard or Amazon and I put them against SanDisk or Micron Technologies, it's true that right now SanDisk and Micron Technologies are making astronomical amounts of money.
So any bulls on those companies will point to their demand to how much money they're making today, how much cash flow they're making today. But if you pull up a longer chart, you see that they go through huge influxes of demand and then it cools off for a period.
Now, we don't know when that cooling off will happen. But what I do know is that these business models that have the consumer that have billions of customers on every single product that they release, these ones have a very enduring business model.
They're subscriptionbased, advertising based. When you use AWS, it's on a recurring basis. It grows year after year after year.
这些公司掌控着世界。Google、Apple、Microsoft、Amazon，所有这些公司都拥有你每天都在使用的产品。认为它们无法将这么多连接变现，我觉得这很荒谬。那些把资本开支定价为低盈利性资本开支或低回报的投资者，我觉得也是疯了。
这些公司有能力以惊人的速度变现，而且它们已经在证明这一点了。
These companies control the world. Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, all of these companies have the products that you use every single day. To think that they're not going to be able to monetize that many connections, I think is absurd.
The investors that have priced the capex as low profitability capex or not high returns, I think is also crazy. These companies have an ability to monetize at an incredible rate and they're already showing that.
哦天哪，这可不妙。这对 Google 或 Amazon，或任何这些花大笔钱建设数据中心的公司来说都不是好事。我认为投资者在这里忽略的一点是，Amazon、Google 和 Meta 之所以争先恐后地尽可能多拿地、尽可能多谈电力合同、尽可能快地建尽可能多的数据中心，部分原因就是它们知道这类事情正在发生。
它们知道这件事近在眼前，而共和党一夜之间失去了大量权力。所以大型科技公司知道这是不可避免的。它们知道自己身处一个监管更宽松的环境，可以快速建设、不断建设，而它们充分利用了这一点。
Oh man, this isn't good. This is not good for Google or Amazon or any of these companies that are spending all of this money to build data centers. I think what investors are missing here is part of the reason that Amazon, Google, and Meta raced ahead to get as much land as possible to negotiate as much power contracts as possible and to build as many data centers as possible as quick as possible is because they knew this type of thing was happening.
They knew that this was around the corner and Republicans lost a lot of power just overnight. So big tech companies knew that this was inevitable. They knew that they were in a lower regulatory environment where they could build and build quickly and they took full advantage of it.
现在这件事可能被放缓，这对大型科技公司来说并不是利空。事实上，这会让数据中心更加稀缺。这会让新进入者难以走完审批的繁文缛节、走完这些大公司一直在走的整个流程。这就是为什么新云公司和那些试图建设新数据中心需求的公司今天遭到重挫，而大型科技公司在上涨。
那些已经拥有消费者、已经拥有大量数据中心的公司，它们的价值反而变得更高了。这让数据中心更加稀缺。而当某样东西变得更稀缺时，它就会变得更有价值。这意味着那些已经拥有大量投入运营的数据中心、已经获得批准和许可、已经在建设中的公司，远比那些今天才试图进入这个游戏的公司更有价值。
这些就是我所持有的公司，大型科技公司。而如果再建一个数据中心变得几乎不可能，那只能意味着，掌控全世界所有算力、所有智能的公司，就是那些已经建好现有数据中心的公司。所以，当我读到这个消息时，我并不认为这对大型科技公司是利空。我不认为这会让我的公司变得不值钱。
The fact that this could be slowed down now isn't bearish for big tech companies. In fact, this makes data centers more scarce. This makes it difficult for new entrance to go through the red tape to get approved to go through the whole process that these big companies have been doing all along.
This is why neoclouds and companies trying to build out new data center demand are getting crushed today and the big tech companies are going up. The companies that already own the consumer and owned massive amounts of data centers, well, those just became more valuable.
This makes data centers more scarce. And when something becomes more scarce, it becomes more valuable. That means that companies that already have massive amounts of data centers that are operational, ones that are already approved and permitted and already going through construction are far more valuable than the companies trying to enter in the game today.
Those are the companies that I own, the big tech companies. And if it becomes nearly impossible to build another data center, all that means is that the companies that control all the computational power, all the intelligence in the world are the ones that have already built existing data centers.
So, when I read this, I don't see this as bearish on big tech. I I don't think that this is going to make the companies I own worth less.
不利的一面是，这可能会限制 AWS 或 Google Cloud 未来的增长，或 Meta 的资本开支投资，但这一切只会让它们短期内的现金流更高，而且同样会拖慢每一个竞争对手。
再者，这会让现有的公司能够对它们现有的数据中心收取更高的费用。
The downside is it could constrain future growth in AWS or Google Cloud or Meta's capex investments, but all that would do is make it so their cash flows are higher in the short term and it would equally slow down every competitor.
And again, it would make the companies existing now be able to charge more for their existing data centers.
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