Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. on $AMZN (Nov 7, 2026)
AMZN is no winning deal at the current price, though growth at these rates would make it undervalued for a 10% return; AI-stake-adjusted earnings are weaker and free cash flow trends toward negative 42 billion, with buybacks to offset 1% dilution heavy against cash flow. Still, he expects it to perform well even in the worst case, with a 7% conservative long-term return.
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Next up is Amazon. The stock has performed brilliantly in the past. If you calculate the profits, it looks good, the intrinsic value. My average is slightly lower than the current share price.
Therefore, it is not a winning deal. Of course, if it continues to grow at these amazing rates, it is actually a winning deal and undervalued to achieve a 10% return. But looking at things, operating income is high, net income is high, but we have to adjust it by half because of the revaluation of Anthropic and OpenAI stakes.
However, here's the paradox: free cash flows are trending sharply towards negative 42 billion, a huge amount of spending. Another factor that I believe I add value to is this: effective mitigation management.
If you look at the dilution of Amazon's stock year-over-year, it's 1%. 1% of 2.7 trillion is 29 billion. Therefore, just to manage the mitigation effectively, they have to repurchase $ 40 billion. 40 billion, okay.
This is a lot compared to cash flows. Yes, everything is growing, exploding into AWS services , and things like that, great deals with everything, Cloud, OpenAI, Anthropic and everything.
My book is now available on Amazon. Take a look at it if you are interested in value investing. We received great reviews. You really put a lot of effort into the book and that's a nice review.
So this is the best thing I've done so far. Thank you for this review. But when it comes to Amazon, that's a video from four years ago now , I think. That was a risk and a great return for Amazon.
It doubled twice, and now it has reached almost 3 times, and the risk was low. This is what I'm waiting for. Yes, Meta will have $ 100 billion, and Amazon will have $200 billion in cash flow, but there is a question mark over whether this will work.
Currently, the market likes it. It looks cheap. It's not very cheap, but it's Amazon, so even in the worst-case scenario, I think it will perform well. But there is still a long-term conservative return of 7%.
I could take this up a notch here with a higher risk, but I'm focusing on the book side, the logistics , the value there, and seeing how AI works .
What this channel has said about $AMZN
Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. has 3 calls on this stock; only the adjacent ones are shown.