$AMZN · Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. · 2026-11-07
AMZN 在当前价格下并非划算的交易，但若按当前增速增长，以 10% 回报率衡量则被低估；经 AI 持股调整后的盈利更弱，自由现金流趋向负 420 亿，而用于抵消 1% 稀释的回购相对现金流而言负担沉重。尽管如此，他仍预期即使最坏情况下它也会表现良好，保守的长期回报为 7%。
逐段跳播
接下来是 Amazon。这只股票过去表现非常出色。如果算一下利润，看起来不错，也就是内在价值。我的平均成本略低于当前股价。因此，这不算一笔赚钱的交易。当然，如果它继续以这种惊人的速度增长，那它实际上就是一笔赚钱的交易，而且被低估，能够实现10%的回报。
但看实际情况，营业收入很高，净利润也很高，不过由于 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 持股的重估，我们得把它砍掉一半。然而，矛盾就在这里：自由现金流正急剧趋向负420亿，支出规模巨大。
我认为我能带来价值的另一个因素是：有效的缓解管理。如果你看 Amazon 股票同比的稀释，是1%。2.7万亿的1%就是290亿。因此，仅仅为了有效管理这种稀释，他们就得回购400亿美元。
400亿，好吧。与现金流相比，这是很大的数目。是的，一切都在增长，在 AWS 服务等方面爆发式增长，一切都很好，Cloud、OpenAI、Anthropic 等等。我的书现在在 Amazon 上有售。
如果你对价值投资感兴趣，可以看看。我们收到了很好的评价。你确实为这本书投入了很多精力，那是一条很好的评价。所以这是我迄今为止做得最好的一件事。感谢这条评价。但说到 Amazon，那已经是四年前的视频了，我想。
那对 Amazon 来说既是风险也是巨大的回报。它翻了两倍，现在几乎达到了三倍，而风险很低。这就是我在等待的。是的，Meta 会有1000亿美元，Amazon 会有2000亿美元的现金流，但这能否奏效还是个问号。
目前，市场喜欢它。它看起来便宜。不是很便宜，但它是 Amazon，所以即使最坏的情况下，我认为它也会表现良好。但仍有7%的长期保守回报。我本可以在这里提高一档，承担更高的风险，但我现在专注于书这一边、物流、那里的价值，以及看看 AI 如何运作。
Next up is Amazon. The stock has performed brilliantly in the past. If you calculate the profits, it looks good, the intrinsic value. My average is slightly lower than the current share price.
Therefore, it is not a winning deal. Of course, if it continues to grow at these amazing rates, it is actually a winning deal and undervalued to achieve a 10% return. But looking at things, operating income is high, net income is high, but we have to adjust it by half because of the revaluation of Anthropic and OpenAI stakes.
However, here's the paradox: free cash flows are trending sharply towards negative 42 billion, a huge amount of spending. Another factor that I believe I add value to is this: effective mitigation management.
If you look at the dilution of Amazon's stock year-over-year, it's 1%. 1% of 2.7 trillion is 29 billion. Therefore, just to manage the mitigation effectively, they have to repurchase $ 40 billion. 40 billion, okay.
This is a lot compared to cash flows. Yes, everything is growing, exploding into AWS services , and things like that, great deals with everything, Cloud, OpenAI, Anthropic and everything.
My book is now available on Amazon. Take a look at it if you are interested in value investing. We received great reviews. You really put a lot of effort into the book and that's a nice review.
So this is the best thing I've done so far. Thank you for this review. But when it comes to Amazon, that's a video from four years ago now , I think. That was a risk and a great return for Amazon.
It doubled twice, and now it has reached almost 3 times, and the risk was low. This is what I'm waiting for. Yes, Meta will have $ 100 billion, and Amazon will have $200 billion in cash flow, but there is a question mark over whether this will work.
Currently, the market likes it. It looks cheap. It's not very cheap, but it's Amazon, so even in the worst-case scenario, I think it will perform well. But there is still a long-term conservative return of 7%.
I could take this up a notch here with a higher risk, but I'm focusing on the book side, the logistics , the value there, and seeing how AI works .
这个频道对 $AMZN 的历次判断
Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。