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$APLD

Parkev Tatevosian, CFA on $APLD (Oct 28, 2026)

AI summary · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA

APLD was upgraded to buy: $18.25 versus a $26.53 DCF value leaves it at least 45% undervalued, at a record-low 2.8 times forward sales, with a -24% operating margin that is improving; revenue is expected to double over the next few years on orders if data centers can be built. Contract-renewal and high-volatility risks suit only high-risk-tolerant investors.

BullishHe framed it in years
“Should Investors Buy Iren Instead of Applied Digital? | IREN Stock vs. APLD Stock”
Parkev Tatevosian, CFAPublished Oct 28 · 17 passages

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17 passages
0:007:11

Iren and Applied Digital are among the AI companies that have been hit hard by growing concerns about unit economics and the sustainability of the AI sector.

Investors are concerned that after the spending boom coming in the next few years , there will be a significant slowdown, and among the companies most at risk are Iren and Applied Digital.

However, I thought it was a buying opportunity, and I recently upgraded the Iren and Applied Digital stocks to Buy Opportunities. Now, investors are asking me which one is better for me since I have rated them both as buying opportunities.

This is the question I will answer in this video, where I will compare them directly through a few important metrics, as well as look at valuation differences to determine which I see as a better investment today for investors with a high risk tolerance, because these stocks are among the riskiest in the market right now.

One of the reasons that attracts investors to these two companies is the tremendous revenue growth that is expected to continue for the next few years.

You can see the revenue curve has been skyrocketing since 2024, with Applied Digital generating $854 million in revenue over the past twelve months,

Over the next three years, you can reasonably expect these companies' revenues to double compared to what they are today. This is due to their having billions of dollars in accumulating orders.

They can generate revenue from data centers to the extent that they can build them at the moment.

But the question remains: what will happen to these contracts when they are due to be renewed in two, four , or six years from now ? Will the supply and demand situation remain as it is today, with demand exceeding supply, thus raising computing costs and benefiting companies that build, lease, or own these computing assets?

Or will the situation in the sector reverse and lead to a surplus in supply, resulting in a sharp drop in prices due to over- construction? This is the question mark that investors are trying to answer right now .

Another reason for investors to be concerned about some companies in the sector, including Iren and Applied Digital, is unit economics.

Similarly, Applied Digital is not profitable in terms of net profit, with an operating profit margin of -24%, but this metric has been improving at least slightly in recent years, unlike I rent, which is moving in the opposite direction.

Of course, when you look at companies that are losing a lot of money, the balance sheet becomes even more important. You need to know how much debt they have, and how much cash they have available, to determine whether they need to go back to investors and ask for more capital, which could dilute shareholders' stakes.

while Applied Digital has 6.5 billion. It is very likely that the debt of these companies will increase over the next few years, and although interest rates for borrowing by these companies have risen significantly over the past month, the good news is that they have fallen slightly over the past week.

compared to 3.26 billion for Applied Digital. Similarly, Applied Digital is trading at its lowest price-to-forward sales ratio of 2.8 .

Applied Digital is trading at a valuation that is roughly double that of I rent according to this specific metric. But you can see how both are trading near their record lows in terms of the price-to-sales ratio for futures.

This is one of the reasons that prompted me to upgrade these stocks to buy opportunities two weeks ago.

At the same time, I calculated the discounted cash flow for Applied Digital, and my calculations came to $26.53 compared to the current market price of $18.25, which is also near its lowest level in 52 weeks.

And now, it also seems to me that it is undervalued by at least 45%.

Therefore, both appear to be undervalued , and again, that is why they are being upgraded to a buy opportunity. Now, to answer the question of which is better, it is not an easy decision. There are advantages and disadvantages to each.

Applied Digital has a better profitability profile, and its operating profit margin is improving. I have rated them both as buying opportunities. No one is forcing you to choose just one of these two companies.

If you are interested in both, you can add them together to your investment portfolio.

But let me remind everyone that these two stocks are among the riskiest stocks you can own right now. So, if you are interested in them, make sure you are prepared to take those high risks.

These stocks are extremely volatile and can fall by large percentages in any given day or week. For this reason, I suggest that they should only be considered by investors with a high risk tolerance.

What this channel has said about $APLD

Parkev Tatevosian, CFA has 3 calls on this stock; only the adjacent ones are shown.

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