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$APLD

$APLD · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-10-28

AI 摘要 · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA

APLD 获上调至买入:股价 18.25 美元,对比 26.53 美元的 DCF 估值,至少低估 45%;远期市销率仅 2.8 倍,创历史新低;营业利润率为 -24%,但正在改善;若能建成数据中心,凭借订单,未来几年营收预计翻倍。合同续约风险与高波动风险仅适合能承受高风险的投资者。

看涨他说的是几年内
《Should Investors Buy Iren Instead of Applied Digital? | IREN Stock vs. APLD Stock》
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA发布 2026-10-28 · 17 段内容
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17 段内容
0:007:11

Iren 和 Applied Digital 属于那些因市场对单位经济效益以及 AI 行业可持续性的担忧日益加剧而遭受重创的 AI 公司。

Iren and Applied Digital are among the AI companies that have been hit hard by growing concerns about unit economics and the sustainability of the AI sector.

投资者担心,在未来几年即将到来的支出热潮之后,会出现明显的放缓,而风险最大的公司中就包括 Iren 和 Applied Digital。

Investors are concerned that after the spending boom coming in the next few years , there will be a significant slowdown, and among the companies most at risk are Iren and Applied Digital.

不过,我认为这是一个买入机会,我最近将 Iren 和 Applied Digital 的股票上调为买入机会。现在,投资者问我,既然我把这两家都评为买入机会,那么对我来说哪一家更好。

这就是我将在本期视频中回答的问题,我会通过几个重要指标直接对比这两家公司,并考察估值差异,以判断对于风险承受能力高的投资者来说,我今天认为哪一家是更好的投资,因为这些股票是目前市场上风险最高的股票之一。

However, I thought it was a buying opportunity, and I recently upgraded the Iren and Applied Digital stocks to Buy Opportunities. Now, investors are asking me which one is better for me since I have rated them both as buying opportunities.

This is the question I will answer in this video, where I will compare them directly through a few important metrics, as well as look at valuation differences to determine which I see as a better investment today for investors with a high risk tolerance, because these stocks are among the riskiest in the market right now.

吸引投资者关注这两家公司的原因之一,是预计未来几年将持续的巨额营收增长。

One of the reasons that attracts investors to these two companies is the tremendous revenue growth that is expected to continue for the next few years.

你可以看到,营收曲线自2024年以来一路飙升,Applied Digital 在过去十二个月中实现了8.54亿美元的营收,

You can see the revenue curve has been skyrocketing since 2024, with Applied Digital generating $854 million in revenue over the past twelve months,

在未来三年里,你可以合理预期这些公司的营收将比现在翻一番。这是因为它们拥有数十亿美元不断累积的订单。只要它们目前能够建成数据中心,就能从中产生营收。

Over the next three years, you can reasonably expect these companies' revenues to double compared to what they are today. This is due to their having billions of dollars in accumulating orders.

They can generate revenue from data centers to the extent that they can build them at the moment.

但问题依然存在:当这些合同在两年、四年或六年后续约时,会发生什么?供需状况会保持今天这样,即需求超过供给,从而推高算力成本,并让那些建设、租赁或拥有这些算力资产的公司受益吗?还是该行业的情况会逆转,导致供给过剩,因过度建设而使价格大幅下跌?这正是投资者目前试图回答的疑问。

But the question remains: what will happen to these contracts when they are due to be renewed in two, four , or six years from now ? Will the supply and demand situation remain as it is today, with demand exceeding supply, thus raising computing costs and benefiting companies that build, lease, or own these computing assets?

Or will the situation in the sector reverse and lead to a surplus in supply, resulting in a sharp drop in prices due to over- construction? This is the question mark that investors are trying to answer right now .

投资者对该行业一些公司(包括 Iren 和 Applied Digital)感到担忧的另一个原因是单位经济效益。

Another reason for investors to be concerned about some companies in the sector, including Iren and Applied Digital, is unit economics.

同样,Applied Digital 在净利润方面并不盈利,营业利润率为-24%,但至少近年来这一指标略有改善,而 I rent 则相反,正朝着相反的方向发展。

Similarly, Applied Digital is not profitable in terms of net profit, with an operating profit margin of -24%, but this metric has been improving at least slightly in recent years, unlike I rent, which is moving in the opposite direction.

当然,当你考察那些亏损严重的公司时,资产负债表就变得更加重要。你需要知道它们有多少债务、有多少可用现金,以判断它们是否需要回头向投资者寻求更多资本,而这可能会稀释股东的持股。

Of course, when you look at companies that are losing a lot of money, the balance sheet becomes even more important. You need to know how much debt they have, and how much cash they have available, to determine whether they need to go back to investors and ask for more capital, which could dilute shareholders' stakes.

而 Applied Digital 为65亿。这些公司的债务很可能在未来几年增加,尽管这些公司的借款利率在过去一个月里大幅上升,但好消息是,过去一周里利率略有下降。

while Applied Digital has 6.5 billion. It is very likely that the debt of these companies will increase over the next few years, and although interest rates for borrowing by these companies have risen significantly over the past month, the good news is that they have fallen slightly over the past week.

相比之下,Applied Digital 为32.6亿。同样,Applied Digital 目前的市销率(远期)处于其最低水平,为2.8。

compared to 3.26 billion for Applied Digital. Similarly, Applied Digital is trading at its lowest price-to-forward sales ratio of 2.8 .

按照这一特定指标,Applied Digital 的估值大约是 I rent 的两倍。但你可以看到,就期货的市销率而言,这两只股票的交易价格都接近各自的历史最低点。这也是促使我在两周前将这两只股票上调为买入机会的原因之一。

Applied Digital is trading at a valuation that is roughly double that of I rent according to this specific metric. But you can see how both are trading near their record lows in terms of the price-to-sales ratio for futures.

This is one of the reasons that prompted me to upgrade these stocks to buy opportunities two weeks ago.

与此同时,我计算了 Applied Digital 的现金流折现,我的计算结果为 26.53 美元,而当前市场价格为 18.25 美元,这也接近其 52 周最低水平。而且现在在我看来,它似乎至少被低估了 45%。

At the same time, I calculated the discounted cash flow for Applied Digital, and my calculations came to $26.53 compared to the current market price of $18.25, which is also near its lowest level in 52 weeks.

And now, it also seems to me that it is undervalued by at least 45%.

因此,两者似乎都被低估了,再说一次,这就是它们被上调为买入机会的原因。那么,要回答哪一个更好的问题,这并不是一个容易的决定。两者各有优缺点。

Therefore, both appear to be undervalued , and again, that is why they are being upgraded to a buy opportunity. Now, to answer the question of which is better, it is not an easy decision. There are advantages and disadvantages to each.

Applied Digital 的盈利能力更强,其营业利润率正在改善。我把这两只股票都评为买入机会。没有人强迫你只在这两家公司中选一个。如果你对两者都感兴趣,可以把它们一起加入你的投资组合。

Applied Digital has a better profitability profile, and its operating profit margin is improving. I have rated them both as buying opportunities. No one is forcing you to choose just one of these two companies.

If you are interested in both, you can add them together to your investment portfolio.

但我要提醒大家,这两只股票是目前你能持有的风险最高的股票之一。所以,如果你对它们感兴趣,请确保你准备好承担这些高风险。这些股票波动极大,在任何一天或一周内都可能大幅下跌。因此,我建议只有风险承受能力高的投资者才应考虑它们。

But let me remind everyone that these two stocks are among the riskiest stocks you can own right now. So, if you are interested in them, make sure you are prepared to take those high risks.

These stocks are extremely volatile and can fall by large percentages in any given day or week. For this reason, I suggest that they should only be considered by investors with a high risk tolerance.

这个频道对 $APLD 的历次判断

Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 3 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

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