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$BA

Schwab Network on $BA (Oct 26, 2026)

AI summary · Schwab Network

BA is turbulent and pressured by production and free cash flow problems, and the speaker advises patience. Earnings are a major event after 737 Max certification, with the $1 billion to $3 billion free cash flow forecast key to monitor. The stock has repeatedly bottomed near 185, moving averages may resist, options imply a ±$11 move this week, and a bullish call calendar is only a conditional upside trade.

He framed it in weeks
“Options Corner: BA Shares Struggle to Liftoff into Earnings”
Schwab NetworkPublished Oct 26 · 13 passages

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13 passages
0:004:08

Boeing is preparing to announce its quarterly results before the opening bell tomorrow. Here's what the forecast indicates . Investors expect a loss in earnings per share of 21 cents on an adjusted basis, and revenue is expected to reach approximately $24.3 billion.

Keep in mind that Boeing shares have remained under pressure, posting a double-digit decline since the start of the year. Well, shareholders have been patient with this stock and are looking forward to a recovery.

Yes, I think investors should be patient; the past few years have been turbulent for Boeing.

The stock was around $140 10 years ago, then reached its all-time high in early 2019 at $446 per share. But then we saw the impact of Covid, and some incidents that the company experienced .

Thus we see the turmoil intensifying over the past several years , and I think this has been a source of frustration for investors.

It's all about production figures and free cash flow, and they've had some problems with production and raising those figures. The new CEO, Kelly Ortberg, has started working on it .

We are down about 26% from our 52-week high of around $254, but that was last January. Right now, we're down about 13% this year before these earnings results are released.

It will be a significant event because on October 20 they finally received certification for their 737 Max aircraft. This represents about one-third of their backlog of orders at this stage.

Therefore, this will be a major earnings event for Boeing, and we need to monitor future guidance .

I think this will be the key to the matter. Will they revise their free cash flow forecast of $1 billion to $3 billion for this year? Do they expect the situation to be a little better now that they have received the certificate?

However, you can see here, from a few simple moving averages, that the performance has been extremely volatile. You have the 200-day moving average here at around $218. And you have a 50-day moving average at around $201.

This may act as a short-term resistance level, but it appears we have bottomed out at the 185 level repeatedly over the past month.

Unstable fluctuations in the stock price. But, do you know? These fluctuations and movements that we have seen in the stock over the past year somewhat reflect what we have seen over the past ten years, Diana. A lot of fluctuations.

That divergence we see between Boeing's option chains . The options market is pricing in a move of about plus or minus $11 in either direction by the end of the week. Therefore, this should be taken into consideration.

They will announce the results tomorrow morning, but until the end of the week, the movement will be around plus or minus $11 in either direction.

I looked at the one-week call calendar with an upward bias of approximately one standard deviation, where I would buy a weekly call option with a strike price of 200 for November 6, and then sell the same call option with a strike price of 200 for that in the short-term options for October 30 .

So, it's simply a one-week bullish call option valuation strategy at a strike price of 200. You'll pay an approximate cost of only about 95 cents. Any risk of $95 per spread to get a bullish exposure here when it moves by approximately one standard deviation.

Now, you can see peak profitability here at or near an execution price of 200 , but you likely have a range between 190 and 210 to the upside where you could be a winner on this trade.

Now, why is this a low-cost way to gain upside exposure? Because you are buying less implied volatility than you are selling. You are buying approximately 48% implied volatility and selling approximately 65% ​​implied volatility overall in the October 30 weekly options.

This lowers the entry point at the price, but it's a strategy to evaluate buy options within an upward range here, Diana, if you think this stock will rise.

Watchpoints

free cash flow guidance in the earnings report

What this channel has said about $BA

Schwab Network has 5 calls on this stock; only the adjacent ones are shown.

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