$BA · Schwab Network · 2026-10-26
BA 走势动荡,并受到生产和自由现金流问题的压力,说话者建议保持耐心。财报是 737 Max 认证之后的一大事件,其中 10 亿至 30 亿美元的自由现金流预测是关键观察点。该股已多次在 185 附近触底,均线可能形成阻力,期权隐含本周约 ±11 美元的波动,而看涨看涨期权日历价差只是一笔有条件的上行交易。
逐段跳播
波音正准备在明天开盘前公布季度业绩。以下是预测所显示的情况。投资者预计调整后每股收益将亏损21美分,营收预计将达到约243亿美元。
Boeing is preparing to announce its quarterly results before the opening bell tomorrow. Here's what the forecast indicates . Investors expect a loss in earnings per share of 21 cents on an adjusted basis, and revenue is expected to reach approximately $24.3 billion.
请记住,波音股价一直承压,自年初以来已出现两位数的跌幅。股东们对这只股票一直很有耐心,并期待它能复苏。是的,我认为投资者应该保持耐心;过去几年对波音来说一直动荡不安。
Keep in mind that Boeing shares have remained under pressure, posting a double-digit decline since the start of the year. Well, shareholders have been patient with this stock and are looking forward to a recovery.
Yes, I think investors should be patient; the past few years have been turbulent for Boeing.
这只股票10年前大约在140美元,然后在2019年初达到每股446美元的历史最高点。但随后我们看到了新冠疫情的影响,以及公司经历的一些事件。因此我们看到过去几年动荡加剧,我认为这令投资者感到沮丧。
The stock was around $140 10 years ago, then reached its all-time high in early 2019 at $446 per share. But then we saw the impact of Covid, and some incidents that the company experienced .
Thus we see the turmoil intensifying over the past several years , and I think this has been a source of frustration for investors.
关键在于产量数据和自由现金流,而他们在生产和提升这些数据方面遇到了一些问题。新任CEO Kelly Ortberg 已经开始着手处理这件事。
It's all about production figures and free cash flow, and they've had some problems with production and raising those figures. The new CEO, Kelly Ortberg, has started working on it .
我们较52周高点约254美元下跌了约26%,但那是去年1月的事。目前,在这些业绩公布之前,我们今年下跌了约13%。
We are down about 26% from our 52-week high of around $254, but that was last January. Right now, we're down about 13% this year before these earnings results are released.
这将是一个重大事件,因为10月20日他们的737 Max飞机终于获得了认证。这大约占他们目前订单积压的三分之一。因此,这将是波音一次重大的业绩事件,我们需要关注未来的指引。
It will be a significant event because on October 20 they finally received certification for their 737 Max aircraft. This represents about one-third of their backlog of orders at this stage.
Therefore, this will be a major earnings event for Boeing, and we need to monitor future guidance .
我认为这将是问题的关键。他们会修改今年10亿至30亿美元的自由现金流预测吗?既然已经拿到了认证,他们是否预计情况会好一些?
I think this will be the key to the matter. Will they revise their free cash flow forecast of $1 billion to $3 billion for this year? Do they expect the situation to be a little better now that they have received the certificate?
不过,你可以从这里几条简单的移动平均线看出,走势极其波动。200日移动平均线大约在218美元。50日移动平均线大约在201美元。这可能构成短期阻力位,但看起来过去一个月里我们多次在185水平触底。
However, you can see here, from a few simple moving averages, that the performance has been extremely volatile. You have the 200-day moving average here at around $218. And you have a 50-day moving average at around $201.
This may act as a short-term resistance level, but it appears we have bottomed out at the 185 level repeatedly over the past month.
股价反复震荡。但你知道吗?过去一年我们在该股上看到的这些波动和走势,某种程度上反映了我们过去十年所看到的情况,Diana。波动很大。
Unstable fluctuations in the stock price. But, do you know? These fluctuations and movements that we have seen in the stock over the past year somewhat reflect what we have seen over the past ten years, Diana. A lot of fluctuations.
我们看到波音期权链之间存在这种分化。期权市场预计到本周末股价将向任一方向波动约正负11美元。因此,这一点应该纳入考虑。他们明天早上将公布业绩,但到本周末,波动幅度将在任一方向上约为正负11美元。
That divergence we see between Boeing's option chains . The options market is pricing in a move of about plus or minus $11 in either direction by the end of the week. Therefore, this should be taken into consideration.
They will announce the results tomorrow morning, but until the end of the week, the movement will be around plus or minus $11 in either direction.
我看了偏向上行、约一个标准差的单周看涨日历价差,具体是我会买入11月6日到期、行权价200的周度看涨期权,然后卖出10月30日到期的短期期权中相同行权价200的看涨期权。所以,这只是一个行权价200、为期一周的看涨期权估值策略。
你支付的成本大约只有95美分。每份价差承担95美元的风险,就能在股价波动约一个标准差时获得上行敞口。
I looked at the one-week call calendar with an upward bias of approximately one standard deviation, where I would buy a weekly call option with a strike price of 200 for November 6, and then sell the same call option with a strike price of 200 for that in the short-term options for October 30 .
So, it's simply a one-week bullish call option valuation strategy at a strike price of 200. You'll pay an approximate cost of only about 95 cents. Any risk of $95 per spread to get a bullish exposure here when it moves by approximately one standard deviation.
现在你可以看到,在执行价200或附近时盈利达到峰值,但上行方向上你大概有一个190到210的区间,在这个区间内这笔交易可能获利。
Now, you can see peak profitability here at or near an execution price of 200 , but you likely have a range between 190 and 210 to the upside where you could be a winner on this trade.
那么,为什么这是一种低成本获得上行敞口的方式?因为你买入的隐含波动率低于你卖出的隐含波动率。你买入的隐含波动率约为48%,而在10月30日的周度期权中整体卖出的隐含波动率约为65%。
这降低了入场价格,但这是一个在上行区间内评估买入期权的策略,Diana,如果你认为这只股票会上涨的话。
Now, why is this a low-cost way to gain upside exposure? Because you are buying less implied volatility than you are selling. You are buying approximately 48% implied volatility and selling approximately 65% implied volatility overall in the October 30 weekly options.
This lowers the entry point at the price, but it's a strategy to evaluate buy options within an upward range here, Diana, if you think this stock will rise.
观察点
这个频道对 $BA 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 5 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。