BABA has long-term potential as a dominant player in China over the next 10-20 years, outweighing short-term concerns about negative free cash flow and dilution.

Now, guys, the fourth arrow is Alibaba. Guys, Alibaba's stock was falling and I was buying it. When it rebounded, I lost it due to covered option contracts at a price of $140 per share.

I don't even know its price now, but I started repurchasing it whenever it went down. Its current price is $105 per share. So, I was lucky because I lost the stocks prematurely; It went up from 130, 135, or 140 all the way to 190, and I said, "Oh my God, have I lost this company?"

Now, what is Alibaba? Okay guys, think of Alibaba as the Amazon of China. It operates in e-commerce like Amazon, cloud computing like Amazon, and digital payments, and serves 1.4 billion people.

The stock surged to $190 last year due to enthusiasm for artificial intelligence , and has since fallen sharply. A lot of noise.

So , let's reveal the facts with numbers. First, the optimistic viewpoint. The cloud computing sector, a business with very high profit margins, grew by 45%. It is the fastest growth in 22 quarters, and reports indicate that Jack Ma, the original founder, bought shares worth more than HK$600 million after the share sale.

What is a pessimistic viewpoint? Well, spending on artificial intelligence jumped by 75%, and they sold nearly $10 billion worth of new shares. And guys, when I heard that, I smacked my head with my hand and said, "What the hell are they doing?"

If this company is so cheap, why are you issuing more shares? This is what you do when the company is overvalued.

So guys, some of the metrics here, frankly , look pretty bad. They pay out these cash dividends, which I don't understand why. Their free cash flow has turned negative because they are investing too much in their capital expenditures for artificial intelligence and the cloud.

This company needs to focus heavily on cloud and artificial intelligence as an investment for the future, just as Amazon has done for many years . Therefore, I try to move beyond short-term negativity and look at the long term.

Do I think Alibaba will be present and dominant in China over the next 10 or 20 years? I truly believe that. So, if I believe that, then this number here shouldn't shock us as much as it already does.

Good. Let's review the eight pillars. It probably won't look very good. Actually, it's not as bad as I thought. They repurchased the shares despite adding more shares. Cash flow has decreased significantly in the past five years.

As well as net income. Revenue increased by $41 billion. Debt is low and earnings multiples are acceptable.

Good ? Now, folks, let's take a look at the analysts' estimates. They have earnings growth of $6.50 to $11 per share in the next three years, with continued revenue growth. Look at this growth rate.

12.5%, 13% , 14%, 11%. Guys, there was a time when analysts were predicting revenue growth for this company ranging from 3% to 7%. Look at it now. The cloud plays a major role in that.

If they can grow their cloud business significantly, this is a high-margin business .

So, folks, this brings us to our next point, our stock analysis tool. Guys, I've been doing a 10-year analysis. Revenue growth rates of 5%, 8%, and 11% were used. The growth rates for earnings and free cash flow were used at 13%, 16%, and 19%.

Guys, I'm going to adjust these predictions a little. I would actually lower it because they will be investing a lot over the next ten years . Therefore, I will choose 10%, 13% and 16%.

After that, I would use 16, 19 and 22 times earnings and free cash flow, with a return of 9.5%. Press the analyze button. The stock price is currently 105. I have a low price at 115, a high price at 360, and an average price at 209.

So guys, I still think this company has a lot of potential.