BABA 具备长期潜力，未来 10-20 年有望成为中国市场的主导者，其重要性超过对负自由现金流和稀释的短期担忧。
逐段跳播
现在，各位，第四支箭是阿里巴巴。各位，阿里巴巴的股票在下跌，而我在买入。当它反弹时，我因每股140美元的备兑期权合约而失去了它。我现在甚至不知道它的价格，但每当它下跌时我就开始重新买入。
它目前的价格是每股105美元。所以，我很幸运，因为我过早地失去了这些股票；它从130、135或140一路涨到190，我说：“哦，天哪，我是不是错过了这家公司？”
Now, guys, the fourth arrow is Alibaba. Guys, Alibaba's stock was falling and I was buying it. When it rebounded, I lost it due to covered option contracts at a price of $140 per share.
I don't even know its price now, but I started repurchasing it whenever it went down. Its current price is $105 per share. So, I was lucky because I lost the stocks prematurely; It went up from 130, 135, or 140 all the way to 190, and I said, "Oh my God, have I lost this company?"
现在，阿里巴巴是什么？好的各位，把阿里巴巴想象成中国的亚马逊。它像亚马逊一样经营电子商务，像亚马逊一样经营云计算，还有数字支付，服务14亿人。由于对人工智能的热情，该股去年飙升至190美元，此后大幅下跌。很多噪音。
Now, what is Alibaba? Okay guys, think of Alibaba as the Amazon of China. It operates in e-commerce like Amazon, cloud computing like Amazon, and digital payments, and serves 1.4 billion people.
The stock surged to $190 last year due to enthusiasm for artificial intelligence , and has since fallen sharply. A lot of noise.
那么，让我们用数字揭示事实。首先，乐观的观点。云计算部门，一个利润率非常高的业务，增长了45%。这是22个季度以来最快的增长，而且有报道指出，原始创始人马云在股票出售后买入了价值超过6亿港元的股票。
So , let's reveal the facts with numbers. First, the optimistic viewpoint. The cloud computing sector, a business with very high profit margins, grew by 45%. It is the fastest growth in 22 quarters, and reports indicate that Jack Ma, the original founder, bought shares worth more than HK$600 million after the share sale.
悲观的观点是什么？嗯，人工智能方面的支出跃升了75%，而且他们出售了近100亿美元的新股。各位，当我听到这个消息时，我用手拍了拍脑袋说：“他们到底在干什么？”如果这家公司这么便宜，你们为什么要发行更多股票？这是公司被高估时才会做的事。
What is a pessimistic viewpoint? Well, spending on artificial intelligence jumped by 75%, and they sold nearly $10 billion worth of new shares. And guys, when I heard that, I smacked my head with my hand and said, "What the hell are they doing?"
If this company is so cheap, why are you issuing more shares? This is what you do when the company is overvalued.
所以各位，这里的一些指标，坦率地说，看起来相当糟糕。他们派发这些现金股息，我不明白为什么。他们的自由现金流已经转为负值，因为他们在人工智能和云计算的资本支出上投资过多。这家公司需要像亚马逊多年来所做的那样，把云和人工智能作为未来的投资重点。
因此，我试图超越短期的负面因素，着眼于长期。我认为阿里巴巴在未来10年或20年会在中国存在并占据主导地位吗？我真的相信这一点。所以，如果我相信这一点，那么这个数字就不应该像现在这样让我们感到震惊。
So guys, some of the metrics here, frankly , look pretty bad. They pay out these cash dividends, which I don't understand why. Their free cash flow has turned negative because they are investing too much in their capital expenditures for artificial intelligence and the cloud.
This company needs to focus heavily on cloud and artificial intelligence as an investment for the future, just as Amazon has done for many years . Therefore, I try to move beyond short-term negativity and look at the long term.
Do I think Alibaba will be present and dominant in China over the next 10 or 20 years? I truly believe that. So, if I believe that, then this number here shouldn't shock us as much as it already does.
好。让我们回顾这八大支柱。它可能看起来不会很好。实际上，它没有我想象的那么糟。尽管增发了更多股票，他们还是回购了股票。过去五年现金流大幅下降。净利润也是如此。营收增加了410亿美元。债务很低，盈利倍数也可以接受。
Good. Let's review the eight pillars. It probably won't look very good. Actually, it's not as bad as I thought. They repurchased the shares despite adding more shares. Cash flow has decreased significantly in the past five years.
As well as net income. Revenue increased by $41 billion. Debt is low and earnings multiples are acceptable.
好吗？现在，各位，让我们看看分析师的预测。他们预计未来三年每股收益将从6.50美元增长到11美元，营收持续增长。看看这个增长率。12.5%、13%、14%、11%。各位，曾经有一段时间，分析师预测这家公司的营收增长率在3%到7%之间。
看看现在。云在其中发挥了主要作用。如果他们能大幅增长云业务，这是一项高利润率的业务。
Good ? Now, folks, let's take a look at the analysts' estimates. They have earnings growth of $6.50 to $11 per share in the next three years, with continued revenue growth. Look at this growth rate.
12.5%, 13% , 14%, 11%. Guys, there was a time when analysts were predicting revenue growth for this company ranging from 3% to 7%. Look at it now. The cloud plays a major role in that.
If they can grow their cloud business significantly, this is a high-margin business .
所以，各位，这把我们带到了下一点，我们的股票分析工具。各位，我一直在做10年分析。使用了5%、8%和11%的营收增长率。盈利和自由现金流的增长率使用了13%、16%和19%。各位，我要稍微调整这些预测。
我实际上会降低它，因为他们在未来十年将进行大量投资。因此，我将选择10%、13%和16%。之后，我会使用16、19和22倍的盈利和自由现金流，回报率为9.5%。按下分析按钮。目前股价为105。
我的低价是115，高价是360，平均价是209。所以各位，我仍然认为这家公司有很大的潜力。
So, folks, this brings us to our next point, our stock analysis tool. Guys, I've been doing a 10-year analysis. Revenue growth rates of 5%, 8%, and 11% were used. The growth rates for earnings and free cash flow were used at 13%, 16%, and 19%.
Guys, I'm going to adjust these predictions a little. I would actually lower it because they will be investing a lot over the next ten years . Therefore, I will choose 10%, 13% and 16%.
After that, I would use 16, 19 and 22 times earnings and free cash flow, with a return of 9.5%. Press the analyze button. The stock price is currently 105. I have a low price at 115, a high price at 360, and an average price at 209.
So guys, I still think this company has a lot of potential.
这个频道对 $BABA 的历次判断
Everything Money 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。