AI disintermediation risk to BKNG is overstated as most volume comes from independents needing OTAs; the 25% price drop is unjustified given strong management and capital allocation.

And I did that exactly with Booking Holdings, which is 20% of my portfolio, my second-largest holding. And why this is important is because of the Muse AI and also other agents.

What happens if people are going to book hotels directly without going through Booking.com, Agoda and the companies, and even Expedia?

Yeah, let's talk about the competitors because even they are at risk. And if you look at Booking.com, about 90% of the room nights that are booked are independent hotels, small chains and also alternative accommodations.

Mostly the big chains are the ones that are going to use agents. So not 100% of the business is actually at risk.

Of course, you may now think of a scenario where even the smaller chains, they become so comfortable, they build their own agents. But if they could do it, why are they using Booking.com today?

If they are so good, maybe they could have just built such a good website, do the SEO and don't use Booking.com at all. The fact that they are using Booking.com today means that, yes, they still need an OTA, an online travel agent.

I'm not saying that people are not going to book directly using agents. It may happen.

But on Booking.com, you know that these are real travelers who actually reviewed a particular hotel. This is one big advantage. You also have other advantages that you won't have just on a website.

So there is this risk. But this is a small portion of the total business of Booking.com.

But Booking.com already exists. So why build another OTA? just like Booking.com does.

But this is the agency model that OTAs like Booking.com used to use decades ago. And now they moved from that to become merchant of record.

I'm not saying that there is no risk. The risk is here, but it is not as large as the market thinks. It makes no sense for Booking.com to be down 25% in a month.

The stock, of course, I'm happy it is down. They are repurchasing shares. It's one of the best companies in the world. That's why I own it. One of the best-run companies in the world.

Glenn Fogel, the CEO of Booking.com, I always say, is very underrated. He's one of the best CEOs in the world.

And one way that Booking Holdings does capital allocation very well is by using their float. It's just like insurance.