AI对BKNG的去中介化风险被高估，因为其大部分业务量来自需要OTA的独立酒店；鉴于管理层与资本配置表现强劲，25%的股价下跌并不合理。
逐段跳播
而我正是这样操作 Booking Holdings 的，它占我投资组合的 20%，是我的第二大持仓。这一点之所以重要，是因为 Muse AI 以及其他各种智能代理。如果人们直接预订酒店，而不通过 Booking.com、Agoda 这些公司，甚至不通过 Expedia，那会发生什么？
And I did that exactly with Booking Holdings, which is 20% of my portfolio, my second-largest holding. And why this is important is because of the Muse AI and also other agents.
What happens if people are going to book hotels directly without going through Booking.com, Agoda and the companies, and even Expedia?
对，我们来谈谈竞争对手，因为连它们也面临风险。如果你看 Booking.com，大约 90% 的已预订间夜来自独立酒店、小型连锁以及替代性住宿。
Yeah, let's talk about the competitors because even they are at risk. And if you look at Booking.com, about 90% of the room nights that are booked are independent hotels, small chains and also alternative accommodations.
使用智能代理的主要是大型连锁酒店。所以并非 100% 的业务都真的面临风险。
Mostly the big chains are the ones that are going to use agents. So not 100% of the business is actually at risk.
当然，你现在可能会想到一种情形：连规模较小的连锁酒店也变得非常得心应手，自己搭建智能代理。但如果它们能做到，为什么今天还在用 Booking.com？如果它们真那么厉害，也许早就可以自己建一个足够好的网站、做好 SEO，完全不用 Booking.com。
它们今天还在用 Booking.com 这一事实说明，是的，它们仍然需要一个 OTA，也就是在线旅行社。
Of course, you may now think of a scenario where even the smaller chains, they become so comfortable, they build their own agents. But if they could do it, why are they using Booking.com today?
If they are so good, maybe they could have just built such a good website, do the SEO and don't use Booking.com at all. The fact that they are using Booking.com today means that, yes, they still need an OTA, an online travel agent.
我并不是说人们不会用智能代理直接预订。这种情况有可能发生。
I'm not saying that people are not going to book directly using agents. It may happen.
但在 Booking.com 上，你知道这些是真实的旅行者，他们确实对某家特定酒店做出了评价。这是一大优势。你还能获得其他一些仅靠一个网站所没有的优势。
But on Booking.com, you know that these are real travelers who actually reviewed a particular hotel. This is one big advantage. You also have other advantages that you won't have just on a website.
所以确实存在这种风险。但这只是 Booking.com 整体业务中的一小部分。
So there is this risk. But this is a small portion of the total business of Booking.com.
但 Booking.com 已经存在了。那为什么还要再建一个 OTA？就像 Booking.com 所做的那样。
But Booking.com already exists. So why build another OTA? just like Booking.com does.
但这是 Booking.com 这类 OTA 几十年前曾采用的代理模式。如今它们已从那种模式转向成为记录商户。
But this is the agency model that OTAs like Booking.com used to use decades ago. And now they moved from that to become merchant of record.
我并不是说没有风险。风险是存在的，但没有市场以为的那么大。Booking.com 一个月下跌 25% 是毫无道理的。
I'm not saying that there is no risk. The risk is here, but it is not as large as the market thinks. It makes no sense for Booking.com to be down 25% in a month.
这只股票，我当然乐见它下跌。他们在回购股票。它是世界上最好的公司之一。这就是我持有它的原因。也是世界上经营得最好的公司之一。
The stock, of course, I'm happy it is down. They are repurchasing shares. It's one of the best companies in the world. That's why I own it. One of the best-run companies in the world.
Booking.com 的 CEO Glenn Fogel，我一直说，他被严重低估了。他是世界上最好的 CEO 之一。
Glenn Fogel, the CEO of Booking.com, I always say, is very underrated. He's one of the best CEOs in the world.
Booking Holdings 把资本配置做得非常好的一种方式，就是利用它们的浮存金。这就像保险一样。
And one way that Booking Holdings does capital allocation very well is by using their float. It's just like insurance.
这个频道对 $BKNG 的历次判断
Ishfaaq Peerally 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。