CELH is a top buy; downside limited to $22, upside driven by Celsius brand volume returning to growth within 1-2 quarters.

I want to extend a big congratulations to everyone who is a shareholder of 'Elf on a Shelf'. Look, we've now more than doubled from the lows we were at just a few months ago. The next step in the ‘Elf on the Shelf’ is the flat jack flipper. 140 baby, 140 is the next target.

Celsius, the most resourceful. Do you own it? Are you interested? According to Nielsen data, energy drink volume increased by 9.8% in the four weeks to September 19 and average prices increased by 6.6%.

The Celsius family has fallen by 20%, while Alani Nu has risen by 73% or 74%, and Alani prices have been reduced by an average of 4%.

So, it might seem confusing to people when they read it for the first time , because they'll think, wait, what's all this ? Celsius volume increased by 9.8% and price increased by 6.6%, but the Celsius family decreased by 20% , while Alani Nu increased by 74% , but the price of Alani Nu was reduced by 4%.

So, when people hear this for the first time, they think, what's really going on in these numbers, right? Unless you're very good at numbers, you'll only be able to understand what's going on here.

Okay, let me explain. Okay. Celsius Holdings, this is the overall company. Okay , overall company. Overall company volume increased by 9.8% , right? And the overall company price increased by 6.6%.

Okay ? This means a revenue increase of about 17% , roughly.

Now, if we think about Alani separately, volume in that side of the business has increased by 74.3% and prices have been reduced by 4%. So, just for Alani's business, excluding Celsius, revenue growth should be about 67%, right?

Now, watch the next part , okay? They're talking about the Celsius family , right? Which has decreased by 20%. So, think of the Celsius family as just the Celsius brand, okay? Celsius brand.

I mean, I'm not talking about Alani, okay? Right? However, overall volume was still up, as Alani's business grew to a much larger scale. Now, the business side of the Celsius brand is still huge, right ?

It is much bigger than Alani. 68.4% of the total volume is Celsius and 31.6% is Alani, right? If Alani were a much larger part of the business, the situation would be such that the overall volume would increase much more, but Alani is still a relatively small business for Celsius.

So, this is something to keep in mind, right? So, that's the math behind it. Hopefully the whole thing is clear now , right?

Now, you know, from the Celsius side, Celsius' volume or sales volume is obviously very weak, right? And it's not like it happened all of a sudden. Volume has been very, very weak and down for quite some time now for the Celsius brand, right ?

So, there are several things at work here. First of all, Celsius has removed many of their SKUs or product items from the market that may not have been selling well in stores, right ?

So, that's also something to keep in mind , right?

I said, "Bloom Energy Drinks have hurt Celsius' volume over the last year or two. That's my personal opinion, okay?"

Um, I was even at Target two nights ago and I was looking at the shelves of Bloom, and I was looking at how it was arranged compared to Alani and Celsius. In many cases where you found Bloom Energy, Celsius and Alani were also there, right ?

So, I think this Bloom Energy is actually the biggest direct competitor to Celsius and Alani in the very short term, right ?

Part of this is definitely coming from Celsius. I see the way Celsius and Alani have been built; Looking at them, it seems like they are being created as long-term brands with 2030, 2035, 2040, 2050 in mind, right?

Another private group member asked, "Why do we think the Celsius brand is not the next prime?" Its growth is almost non-existent. If they hadn't bought Alani, they would have been a dying company, right?

"And I said, because if we compare Celsius to prime and try to understand whether Celsius is the next prime or not, right?" And I said, "Well, how did Prime grow up ?" Who were their customers?

Were their customers coming back again and again ? "I said, answer the questions, then come back to Celsius and see if there are any similarities or if there are any big differences ."

So everyone was shocked because it was a short-term excitement, which does not apply to Celsius. Celsius actually has an adult customer base who regularly buys the product, right? So, it is important to keep this in mind.

Now, this does n't mean that Celsius will generate 2,600% profit in the next 15-16 years, but just understand that just because a company goes through tough times early in its growth cycle, do n't assume that the brand is finished.

If they build a long-term sustainable brand, they will find ways to grow that brand and become very successful over time. So, that's my opinion on this matter , right?

But you have to understand that the entire Celsius company is outperforming Red Bull by a large margin. Now, if you're just talking about the Celsius brand, that's definitely not it, right?

But since we are taking into account the entire Red Bull company and the entire Monster company as well. Volume increased quite significantly at the end of the day. You could say it's because of Alani, but in the case of Celsius it's widespread and it's growing faster than Red Bull.

So ultimately you So ultimately you can say that they are capturing more market share.

So, Celsius is growing quite well as a company.

If and when, and I believe it will happen, the Celsius brand volume starts to grow, then Celsius' share price will skyrocket. I have no doubt that the Celsius brand will return to growth.

I am confident that they will return to growth, and probably within the next 1 to 2 quarters. And if and when that happens, which I believe it will, Celsius' share price will undoubtedly go up significantly.

And it will probably go higher the moment any news comes in, like long before the quarterly reports come out, because you get these monthly reports.

Once the Celsius brand starts growing in volume, we will start flying. And at that moment, if you do n't get on this rocket ship, it will be too late, right?

So, no, of course you can have the belief that the volume of Celsius will continue to decrease forever, but I don't believe that at all. And I'm just telling you that once it turns around —and remember it can turn around before that.

So, when you look at the Celsius brand —just the Celsius brand, not the whole company, just the brand— when you see it getting to a point where maybe it's getting close to growth, meaning maybe it's still declining, but at a very small rate, that's when the stock price can start to go up because people start to speculate a lot, right?

And so, if you go from -20% to -10% or -5% for that particular brand, people are going to start saying right away, "Okay, they're going to turn positive," right?

Because that's how we work, right? And AI programs work exactly the same way. They start to see a trend, and then they think, "Oh, it's no different than it is now." It sees a 20% decline trend and thinks, "Oh my God, Celsius is over," right?

And then all of a sudden everything changes, and then it's like, "Oh, this trend is going in the other direction." "We should buy this stock now," right? Celsius. So, Celsius is n't really a new generation buy for me, but it's one of the stocks I'm most interested in buying right now, right?

So I thought I'd include it here, even though I've been buying it occasionally since late 2024, right?

That's the main thing about Celsius. In the worst case scenario, it could drop to 22. As far as I can see, this is the worst possible situation. Do I see it dropping below 20? No.

I want it to drop below 20. I want it to come down to 22. Honestly, I would be happy if it came down to 25.

But no, I don't think it will drop below 22. 22 is the worst case scenario, but I welcome anything. But, in my opinion, even at this stage like 26, it's pretty much like getting it for free for the next 3 years, right?

Remember, I recorded a video on this channel a few days ago, seven stocks to buy right now. I talked about a lot of stocks there. I didn't talk about Celsius in that video. I forgot about Celsius.

I think I should have kept eight stocks because in my opinion Celsius is one of the best buys in the market right now.