CHTR is a high-risk, high-reward play; huge debt and revenue decline threaten FCF, but rate/capex shifts offer upside.

Then we have Charter Telecommunications Company. When adjusting for the outstanding Cox shares issued for the merger, I think the market capitalization should be closer to 16 billion now. Free cash flow should be between 5 and 6 billion . So we are trading at a free cash flow of 3. Huge debt. But that's okay . This is the Cox deal as explained. This is an interest rate-sensitive investment. If rates rise from 4% to 6-7% and you have debts of 120 billion, your costs will increase by 3 billion. They refinanced at 6% as 10-year Treasury bonds rose . The next refinancing is likely to be at 7.5%. Having so much debt is a problem; Not only that, but revenues are still declining as people switch to mobile only, moving away from fiber. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) are decreasing, and we also have to account for the interest that will increase. Therefore, net profit and free cash flow may decrease . Capital expenditures should decrease in 2027. That should free up $2 billion. This may offset the increase in interest, but still, if they cannot reach the 9 billion in free cash flow they targeted, but only 5 billion after two years, then the price to free cash flow will be 3. Yes, interest rates are rising. Who knows? Interest rates may fall within 6 months. But if the situation is reversed, this is an easy double-edged sword . It was trading at 2x a few months ago, and 4x a year ago. This is how quickly things change in companies that are sensitive to interest rates. It is simply a high-risk, high-reward situation. Therefore, it remains in the green zone on the square.