CHTR是高险高回报的标的；巨额债务和收入下滑威胁自由现金流，但利率与资本开支的变化提供上行空间。
逐段跳播
接下来是Charter Telecommunications Company。在调整了为合并而发行的Cox流通股之后，我认为现在的市值应该接近160亿。自由现金流应该在50亿到60亿之间。
所以我们的自由现金流倍数是3倍。债务规模巨大。但这没关系。这就是所解释的Cox交易。这是一项对利率敏感的投资。如果利率从4%上升到6-7%，而你有1200亿的债务，你的成本将增加30亿。
随着10年期美国国债收益率上升，他们以6%的利率进行了再融资。下一次再融资的利率很可能是7.5%。背负如此多的债务是个问题；不仅如此，随着人们转向只用移动网络、远离光纤，收入仍在下降。
息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）在下降，我们还必须考虑将会增加的利息。因此，净利润和自由现金流可能会减少。资本支出应该在2027年下降。那应该能释放出20亿美元。这或许能抵消利息的增加，但即便如此，如果他们无法达到所设定的90亿自由现金流目标，而两年后只有50亿，那么自由现金流的价格倍数将是3倍。
是的，利率在上升。谁知道呢？利率可能会在6个月内下降。但如果情况反转，这就是一把容易伤及自身的双刃剑。几个月前它的交易倍数是2倍，一年前是4倍。对利率敏感的公司变化就是这么快。
这完全是一个高风险、高回报的局面。因此，它在方格上仍处于绿色区域。
Then we have Charter Telecommunications Company. When adjusting for the outstanding Cox shares issued for the merger, I think the market capitalization should be closer to 16 billion now.
Free cash flow should be between 5 and 6 billion . So we are trading at a free cash flow of 3. Huge debt. But that's okay . This is the Cox deal as explained. This is an interest rate-sensitive investment.
If rates rise from 4% to 6-7% and you have debts of 120 billion, your costs will increase by 3 billion. They refinanced at 6% as 10-year Treasury bonds rose . The next refinancing is likely to be at 7.5%.
Having so much debt is a problem; Not only that, but revenues are still declining as people switch to mobile only, moving away from fiber. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) are decreasing, and we also have to account for the interest that will increase.
Therefore, net profit and free cash flow may decrease . Capital expenditures should decrease in 2027. That should free up $2 billion. This may offset the increase in interest, but still, if they cannot reach the 9 billion in free cash flow they targeted, but only 5 billion after two years, then the price to free cash flow will be 3.
Yes, interest rates are rising. Who knows? Interest rates may fall within 6 months. But if the situation is reversed, this is an easy double-edged sword . It was trading at 2x a few months ago, and 4x a year ago.
This is how quickly things change in companies that are sensitive to interest rates. It is simply a high-risk, high-reward situation. Therefore, it remains in the green zone on the square.
观察点
这个频道对 $CHTR 的历次判断
Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。