Joseph Carlson After Hours on $COST (Nov 2, 2026)
Costco at about $1,000 per share is roughly 22% above the speaker's ~$800 fair value estimate, a generous level that would still leave it at a P/E near 40 versus today's 45-46 — more sensible but still expensive. The market treats Costco as indestructible, and any weakness would compress multiples, yet the speaker is very hesitant to sell and may take profits later if it keeps rising from $1,000.
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Next, we have Costco. This is a company I have owned for a long time in this investment portfolio. It is one of the old and original investments. I have owned it for many years.
Currently, the center is valued at $89,000, with the majority of that coming from profits, having generated $55,000 in earnings.
When I look at Costco, I think the stock is somewhat overvalued. Well, it is currently trading at $1000 per share. I think its fair value is around $800. This is my estimate of the fair value.
At $800 per share, Costco is still trading in the high thirties, i.e., a price-to-earnings ratio of around 40, rather than the 45 or 46 at which it is trading today. So, it is a more sensible valuation, but it is still expensive and priced at a premium in my fair value assessment .
At $800 per share, my fair assessment of the company indicates that it is overvalued by about 22% today.
This high valuation comes even with an estimate of fair value that is considered very generous. At $800 per share, Costco still prices itself as an excellent company with a high multiple.
Therefore, this is a very high price. Costco is treated as if it were completely indestructible, which I think it may be, but no company is perfect. If Costco shows any weakness in any category, the stock will experience a slight compression in valuation multiples .
So, although I believe this stock is overvalued by 22%, I am still very hesitant to sell it. I may make some profits in the future if it continues to rise from the $1,000 level.
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