$COST · Joseph Carlson After Hours · 2026-11-02
Costco 股价约 1000 美元，比说话者约 800 美元的公允价值估计高出约 22%，这一水平仍属慷慨，对应市盈率仍接近 40 倍，而当前为 45-46 倍——更合理但仍偏贵。市场把 Costco 视为不可摧毁，任何疲软都会压缩估值倍数，但说话者非常不愿卖出，若股价从 1000 美元继续上涨，他可能日后获利了结。
逐段跳播
接下来是 Costco。这是我在这个投资组合中持有很久的一家公司。它是最早的原始投资之一。我已经持有它很多年了。目前，这笔持仓的估值为 89,000 美元，其中大部分来自利润，已产生 55,000 美元的收益。
Next, we have Costco. This is a company I have owned for a long time in this investment portfolio. It is one of the old and original investments. I have owned it for many years.
Currently, the center is valued at $89,000, with the majority of that coming from profits, having generated $55,000 in earnings.
当我审视 Costco 时，我认为这只股票有些高估。它目前每股交易价格为 1000 美元。我认为它的公允价值大约在 800 美元左右。这是我对公允价值的估计。
When I look at Costco, I think the stock is somewhat overvalued. Well, it is currently trading at $1000 per share. I think its fair value is around $800. This is my estimate of the fair value.
按每股 800 美元计算，Costco 的市盈率仍在三十多的高位，也就是 40 左右，而不是今天交易时的 45 或 46。所以，这是一个更合理的估值，但仍然偏贵，在我的公允价值评估中仍属于溢价定价。
按每股 800 美元计算，我对该公司的公允评估表明，它今天被高估了约 22%。
At $800 per share, Costco is still trading in the high thirties, i.e., a price-to-earnings ratio of around 40, rather than the 45 or 46 at which it is trading today. So, it is a more sensible valuation, but it is still expensive and priced at a premium in my fair value assessment .
At $800 per share, my fair assessment of the company indicates that it is overvalued by about 22% today.
即便这个公允价值估计已经算是非常慷慨，估值仍然偏高。按每股 800 美元计算，Costco 仍以高倍数把自己定价为一家卓越的公司。因此，这是一个非常高的价格。Costco 被当作完全不可摧毁的公司来对待，我认为它或许确实如此，但没有公司是完美的。
如果 Costco 在任何品类上表现出任何疲软，这只股票的估值倍数就会经历轻微的压缩。
This high valuation comes even with an estimate of fair value that is considered very generous. At $800 per share, Costco still prices itself as an excellent company with a high multiple.
Therefore, this is a very high price. Costco is treated as if it were completely indestructible, which I think it may be, but no company is perfect. If Costco shows any weakness in any category, the stock will experience a slight compression in valuation multiples .
所以，尽管我认为这只股票被高估了 22%，我仍然非常犹豫是否卖出。如果它继续从 1,000 美元的水平上涨，我未来可能会兑现一些利润。
So, although I believe this stock is overvalued by 22%, I am still very hesitant to sell it. I may make some profits in the future if it continues to rise from the $1,000 level.
这个频道对 $COST 的历次判断
Joseph Carlson After Hours 在这只股票上共 5 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。