Deckers is owned and attractive at 10–12x earnings: it still grows, repurchases about 10% of shares annually, adjusted EPS growth is around 8–9%, and intrinsic value is near the price for a 10% return. Hoka’s growth has slowed to single digits, raising permanent-decline risk from Nike/On; if growth stabilizes, it should be repriced fairly. Low brand awareness leaves international room; stable conditions imply good returns over the next two years, faster global growth could roughly double the investment, and even the unlikely worst case retains a margin of safety, possibly aided by takeover interest.

Another company we will be discussing here, and which will be the focus of this video, is Deckers Outdoors. So, we discussed Lulu, and we discussed the entire fashion industry.

At some point, these companies, Lulu and Deckers, will recover. But the key is knowing when.

A deeper look at Deckers Outdoors. We already discussed it 11 months ago. The stock hasn't moved far, and LoLowDecker's stock is trading at 12 times or 10 to 12 times earnings.

Dick's focus is on share buybacks, which is acceptable. They are still growing, but the key factor is that the "hooka" shoes that were driving all this growth have slowed to a single-digit growth rate.

And now the question is, by the way , I own it too. Is the shoe in a state of permanent stability and decline ? Because both "Nike" and "On" bring us these larger slippers, or sponges, or whatever.

Therefore, if growth stabilizes, it will be repriced fairly . However, as you can see here, global brand awareness is still very low. If they can increase that and continue to grow internationally, there will still be room for growth.

You can't have a company growing at 10% and priced at a P/E ratio of 10. " Aggs" is slowing down, but it's still, let's say, stable in a comfortable position. Two brands. They say they have four, but in reality they only have two brands.

The guidance remains positive. I'm filming this just before the earnings release . You will receive this after the earnings announcement. So, please tell me in the comments how the results were.

We may update later this month with the " Quadrant" update. You can see the slowdown in "Huka" here. "Aghz" is stable. Other brands are declining. I have performed a calculation for the intrinsic value.

You can download this for free through my free Value Investing course. By the way, the new value investment guide has been released. Check it out via the link in the description below.

We have accomplished a lot recently. Regarding Deckers' earnings per share , the expected earnings were taken into account. They do not pay dividends, but if they repurchase 10% of the shares annually, I have lowered the numbers with some adjustments for stock compensation, so the actual growth rate should be around 8 to 9% of the repurchases.

A final multiplier of 15, and an expected return of 10%. The intrinsic value is close to the share price to obtain a return of 10%. If the growth rate is slightly higher at 10%, and the price- to-earnings ratio is 20, we will almost double our money and possibly faster.

In the worst-case scenario, which is unlikely, it would mean a real downturn, but there is still a margin of safety, and perhaps a higher one because someone might take over the company.

This is the basic thesis. Your performance will be good over the next two years under stable conditions. If the company grows faster and expands globally, it will get the bullish thesis.

You can double your investment very quickly . The pessimistic thesis points to stability, because someone might buy the company for the cash flow and potential for recovery.