Deckers 被持有，且在10至12倍市盈率下具有吸引力：它仍在增长，每年回购约10%的股份，调整后 EPS 增速约为8%至9%，内在价值接近股价，对应10%的回报。Hoka 增速已放缓至个位数，来自 Nike/On 的永久性衰退风险上升；若增长企稳，应会被合理重估。品牌知名度低，国际市场仍有空间；若条件稳定，未来两年应能带来良好回报，全球增长加快可能使投资大致翻倍，即便是不太可能的最坏情形也仍保有安全边际，并可能受益于收购兴趣。
逐段跳播
我们在这里要讨论的另一家公司，也是本期视频的重点，是 Deckers Outdoors。我们讨论了 Lulu，也讨论了整个时尚行业。在某个时点，这些公司，Lulu 和 Deckers，都会复苏。但关键在于知道什么时候。
Another company we will be discussing here, and which will be the focus of this video, is Deckers Outdoors. So, we discussed Lulu, and we discussed the entire fashion industry.
At some point, these companies, Lulu and Deckers, will recover. But the key is knowing when.
更深入地看看 Deckers Outdoors。我们11个月前已经讨论过它。股价没怎么动，Lulu 和 Deckers 的股票市盈率在12倍，或者说10到12倍。Dick's 的重点是股票回购，这可以接受。
它们仍在增长，但关键因素是，推动这一切增长的“Hoka”鞋已经放缓到个位数增长率。现在的问题是，顺便说一句，我也持有它。这鞋是处于永久性的稳定和衰退状态吗？因为“Nike”和“On”都给我们带来了这些更大的拖鞋，或者海绵鞋，或者随便什么。
因此，如果增长企稳，它就会被合理地重新定价。不过，正如你在这里看到的，全球品牌知名度仍然非常低。如果它们能提高知名度并继续在国际上增长，就仍然有增长空间。一家增长10%的公司，市盈率不可能只有10倍。
“Aggs”在放缓，但它仍然，比如说，稳定在一个舒适的位置。两个品牌。他们说有四个，但实际上只有两个品牌。指引仍然是正面的。我是在财报发布前录制这个的。你会在财报公布后收到这个。
所以，请在评论区告诉我业绩如何。我们可能会在本月晚些时候用“Quadrant”更新。你可以在这里看到“Huka”的放缓。“Aghz”是稳定的。其他品牌在衰退。我做了内在价值的计算。
你可以通过我免费的价值投资课程免费下载。顺便说一句，新的价值投资指南已经发布。通过下方描述中的链接查看。我们最近完成了很多事情。关于 Deckers 的每股收益，预期收益已经考虑进去了。
他们不派息，但如果他们每年回购10%的股份，我已经下调了数字，并对股票薪酬做了一些调整，所以实际增长率应该是回购带来的8%到9%左右。最终乘数15，预期回报10%。内在价值接近股价，以获得10%的回报。
如果增长率略高一些，达到10%，市盈率是20倍，我们几乎能让资金翻倍，而且可能更快。在最坏的情况下，这不太可能，那将意味着真正的衰退，但仍然有安全边际，也许还更高，因为可能有人会收购这家公司。
这就是基本论点。在稳定条件下，你未来两年的表现会不错。如果公司增长更快并在全球扩张，就会得到看涨论点。你可以非常快地让投资翻倍。悲观论点指向稳定，因为可能有人会为了现金流和复苏潜力而买下这家公司。
A deeper look at Deckers Outdoors. We already discussed it 11 months ago. The stock hasn't moved far, and LoLowDecker's stock is trading at 12 times or 10 to 12 times earnings.
Dick's focus is on share buybacks, which is acceptable. They are still growing, but the key factor is that the "hooka" shoes that were driving all this growth have slowed to a single-digit growth rate.
And now the question is, by the way , I own it too. Is the shoe in a state of permanent stability and decline ? Because both "Nike" and "On" bring us these larger slippers, or sponges, or whatever.
Therefore, if growth stabilizes, it will be repriced fairly . However, as you can see here, global brand awareness is still very low. If they can increase that and continue to grow internationally, there will still be room for growth.
You can't have a company growing at 10% and priced at a P/E ratio of 10. " Aggs" is slowing down, but it's still, let's say, stable in a comfortable position. Two brands. They say they have four, but in reality they only have two brands.
The guidance remains positive. I'm filming this just before the earnings release . You will receive this after the earnings announcement. So, please tell me in the comments how the results were.
We may update later this month with the " Quadrant" update. You can see the slowdown in "Huka" here. "Aghz" is stable. Other brands are declining. I have performed a calculation for the intrinsic value.
You can download this for free through my free Value Investing course. By the way, the new value investment guide has been released. Check it out via the link in the description below.
We have accomplished a lot recently. Regarding Deckers' earnings per share , the expected earnings were taken into account. They do not pay dividends, but if they repurchase 10% of the shares annually, I have lowered the numbers with some adjustments for stock compensation, so the actual growth rate should be around 8 to 9% of the repurchases.
A final multiplier of 15, and an expected return of 10%. The intrinsic value is close to the share price to obtain a return of 10%. If the growth rate is slightly higher at 10%, and the price- to-earnings ratio is 20, we will almost double our money and possibly faster.
In the worst-case scenario, which is unlikely, it would mean a real downturn, but there is still a margin of safety, and perhaps a higher one because someone might take over the company.
This is the basic thesis. Your performance will be good over the next two years under stable conditions. If the company grows faster and expands globally, it will get the bullish thesis.
You can double your investment very quickly . The pessimistic thesis points to stability, because someone might buy the company for the cash flow and potential for recovery.
观察点
这个频道对 $DECK 的历次判断
Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。