Joseph Carlson After Hours on $DUOL (Nov 2, 2026)
Duolingo trades at $135 versus a fair value near $200, below his prior estimate. Growth slowed more than expected, and user growth now comes at the expense of profit generation—not ideal, and the reason for the cut. He warns tomorrow's earnings could raise or lower that fair value.
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Next, we have "Duolingo". This investment ranks 12th and represents 2% of the portfolio's weight. Total holdings amounted to $33,000, with a loss of $13,000. Duolingo is currently trading at $135.
I believe its fair value today is around $200, which is less than my previous estimates for this company.
The reason for its decline is that Duolingo did not perform as expected. Growth slowed down a little more than I expected. The growth in the number of users was encouraging, but Duolingo is now sacrificing its ability to generate profits in order to increase the number of users.
When a company has to choose between gaining users or making money, it's not an ideal situation. Therefore, I had to lower my fair value estimate for this company slightly,
and I will add an additional warning. This company announces its earnings tomorrow, so things may change . I might look at the earnings report tomorrow and say, "Wow, this looks really bad.
My fair value for the company is going to fall even more ." Or it might seem really encouraging. My fair value may rise higher. Therefore, this assessment comes before we have much more crucial additional information to determine fair value.
Therefore, this $200 reference comes with a lot of caution.
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Joseph Carlson After Hours has 3 calls on this stock; only the adjacent ones are shown.