$DUOL · Joseph Carlson After Hours · 2026-11-02
Duolingo 股价 135 美元，而公允价值接近 200 美元，低于他此前的估计。增长放缓超出预期，用户增长如今以牺牲盈利为代价——并不理想，这也是下调的原因。他提醒明天的财报可能上调或下调该公允价值。
逐段跳播
接下来是“Duolingo”。这笔投资排在第12位，占投资组合权重的2%。总持仓为33,000美元，亏损13,000美元。Duolingo目前股价为135美元。我认为它今天的公允价值约为200美元，低于我此前对这家公司的估值。
Next, we have "Duolingo". This investment ranks 12th and represents 2% of the portfolio's weight. Total holdings amounted to $33,000, with a loss of $13,000. Duolingo is currently trading at $135.
I believe its fair value today is around $200, which is less than my previous estimates for this company.
它下跌的原因是Duolingo的表现不及预期。增长放缓的幅度比我预期的略大一些。用户数量的增长令人鼓舞，但Duolingo现在为了增加用户数量而牺牲了盈利能力。当一家公司不得不在获取用户和赚钱之间做选择时，这并不是理想的情况。
因此，我不得不略微下调对这家公司的公允价值估计，
The reason for its decline is that Duolingo did not perform as expected. Growth slowed down a little more than I expected. The growth in the number of users was encouraging, but Duolingo is now sacrificing its ability to generate profits in order to increase the number of users.
When a company has to choose between gaining users or making money, it's not an ideal situation. Therefore, I had to lower my fair value estimate for this company slightly,
而且我还要额外加一个警告。这家公司明天公布财报，所以情况可能会变化。我明天看了财报后可能会说：“哇，这看起来真的很糟。我对这家公司的公允价值还会进一步下降。”或者它可能看起来非常令人鼓舞。
我的公允价值可能会更高。因此，这个评估是在我们还没有更多关键额外信息来确定公允价值之前做出的。所以，这个200美元的参考值需要非常谨慎地看待。
and I will add an additional warning. This company announces its earnings tomorrow, so things may change . I might look at the earnings report tomorrow and say, "Wow, this looks really bad.
My fair value for the company is going to fall even more ." Or it might seem really encouraging. My fair value may rise higher. Therefore, this assessment comes before we have much more crucial additional information to determine fair value.
Therefore, this $200 reference comes with a lot of caution.
这个频道对 $DUOL 的历次判断
Joseph Carlson After Hours 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。