KLA is a high-quality, stable business with strong returns and recurring revenue, but potentially overvalued due to lack of explosive growth.
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We return to the buying side with our second Forbes pick. Trading symbol KLAC. You may not have heard of it before, but almost every major chipmaker relies on it. KLA manufactures machines that inspect computer chips for microscopic defects.
And when I say microscopic, I really mean microscopic. It is essentially a quality control rule for the entire industry.
So, what are the reasons for optimism? Well, as chips become more complex for artificial intelligence, which they will, they need more of this scrutiny. KLA also makes recurring money from maintaining all the machines it has already sold.
Nearly a quarter of its sales are now a subscription-like service. It generated nearly $4 billion in cash last year, with expectations of an even higher quarterly performance.
What are the reasons for pessimism? The world of chips is cyclical, as we have said before. When chipmakers slow down the construction of new factories, KLA sales can also decline.
China has always been a large market, so stricter US export rules could wipe out a large portion of its customers.
So, let's review them now. We have a market value of $247 billion versus an enterprise value of $253 billion. This means $6 billion in net debt, but guess what? Their free cash flows appear acceptable.
What interests me is that their free cash flow has been largely stable over the past five years. Therefore, this company may not be as great in terms of achieving a significant leap in revenue, profits, and free cash flow as other companies.
Excellent returns on capital. 40% annually over the past five years, and 37% annually last year.
Hey guys, look. Look at this profit margin. 30% over the past ten years, 33% for the past five years, and 35% last year. So, it's not like it's exploding with massive growth. I liked that it was calmer and more stable.
They pay dividends that consume about $1 billion of their free cash flow.
Let's take a look at the eight pillars. Good. So, six "wrong" marks. Guys, I'm wondering if this company is getting a premium price just for AI versus the fact that it seems more consistent than other AI companies.
Because the five-year price-to-earnings ratio and the five-year free cash flow price-to-cash-flow ratio are the only "wrong" signs here. Everything else is a "check" mark. They have repurchased nearly 12% of their shares in the past five years.
So, let's see what the analysts say. Stable and acceptable growth in profits, nearly doubling from 550 to 1015 over the next four years. This is very good growth in earnings per share.
As for revenues, there is steady growth. $18, $21, $24, $28, and $32 billion in revenue growth. Double-digit growth every year for the next four years. Good.
You know what we have to do now, guys. We will put it into our stock analysis tool. Okay guys, let's take a look at this company over the next ten years. I was more conservative in my revenue growth estimates.
I chose percentages of 6, 9, and 12%. For profit margin and free cash flow margin, I used the same figures. 26, 29, and 33. I chose numbers lower than all of these, assuming that they would decline slightly in their profits, even though they were very stable.
Next, the earnings multiple. Guys, high and consistent returns on capital. This is a high-quality business with a strong balance sheet. I would put 17, 20, and 23. The other reason is that I admire the field they work in.
They are providing a service that everyone else is avoiding because everyone else is trying to focus on the high-margin chip sector.
Finally, my 9.5% return, the stock is currently at 188. I pressed the analyze button. I got a low price of 50, a high price of 130, and an average price of 83
What this channel has said about $KLAC
Everything Money has only this one call on this stock.