KLA是一家高质量、稳定的企业，回报强劲且收入具有经常性，但因缺乏爆发式增长而可能被高估。
逐段跳播
我们回到买入方面，来看我们的第二个Forbes精选。交易代码KLAC。你可能以前没听说过它，但几乎所有主要芯片制造商都依赖它。KLA制造用于检查计算机芯片微观缺陷的机器。当我说微观时，我真的是指微观。它本质上是整个行业的质量控制规则。
We return to the buying side with our second Forbes pick. Trading symbol KLAC. You may not have heard of it before, but almost every major chipmaker relies on it. KLA manufactures machines that inspect computer chips for microscopic defects.
And when I say microscopic, I really mean microscopic. It is essentially a quality control rule for the entire industry.
那么，乐观的理由是什么？随着芯片因人工智能而变得更加复杂，它们将会如此，它们需要更多这种检查。KLA还通过维护已经售出的所有机器赚取经常性收入。现在近四分之一的销售额来自类似订阅的服务。
它去年产生了近40亿美元现金，并预计季度表现还会更高。
So, what are the reasons for optimism? Well, as chips become more complex for artificial intelligence, which they will, they need more of this scrutiny. KLA also makes recurring money from maintaining all the machines it has already sold.
Nearly a quarter of its sales are now a subscription-like service. It generated nearly $4 billion in cash last year, with expectations of an even higher quarterly performance.
悲观的理由是什么？正如我们之前所说，芯片世界是周期性的。当芯片制造商放缓新工厂建设时，KLA的销售也可能下降。中国一直是一个大市场，因此更严格的美国出口规定可能会抹去其很大一部分客户。
What are the reasons for pessimism? The world of chips is cyclical, as we have said before. When chipmakers slow down the construction of new factories, KLA sales can also decline.
China has always been a large market, so stricter US export rules could wipe out a large portion of its customers.
那么，我们现在来回顾一下。市值为2470亿美元，企业价值为2530亿美元。这意味着60亿美元的净债务，但你猜怎么着？他们的自由现金流看起来是可以接受的。让我感兴趣的是，他们的自由现金流在过去五年里基本稳定。
因此，这家公司在实现营收、利润和自由现金流大幅跃升方面，可能不如其他公司那么出色。
So, let's review them now. We have a market value of $247 billion versus an enterprise value of $253 billion. This means $6 billion in net debt, but guess what? Their free cash flows appear acceptable.
What interests me is that their free cash flow has been largely stable over the past five years. Therefore, this company may not be as great in terms of achieving a significant leap in revenue, profits, and free cash flow as other companies.
出色的资本回报率。过去五年每年40%，去年每年37%。
Excellent returns on capital. 40% annually over the past five years, and 37% annually last year.
各位，看。看看这个利润率。过去十年30%，过去五年33%，去年35%。所以，它并不是在爆炸式地大幅增长。我喜欢它更平稳、更稳定。他们支付的股息消耗了约10亿美元的自由现金流。
Hey guys, look. Look at this profit margin. 30% over the past ten years, 33% for the past five years, and 35% last year. So, it's not like it's exploding with massive growth. I liked that it was calmer and more stable.
They pay dividends that consume about $1 billion of their free cash flow.
我们来看看这八大支柱。好。所以，六个“错误”标记。各位，我在想，这家公司是否仅仅因为人工智能而获得了溢价，而不是因为它看起来比其他AI公司更稳定。因为五年市盈率和五年自由现金流市现率是这里仅有的“错误”迹象。
其他一切都是“勾”标记。他们在过去五年里回购了近12%的股份。
Let's take a look at the eight pillars. Good. So, six "wrong" marks. Guys, I'm wondering if this company is getting a premium price just for AI versus the fact that it seems more consistent than other AI companies.
Because the five-year price-to-earnings ratio and the five-year free cash flow price-to-cash-flow ratio are the only "wrong" signs here. Everything else is a "check" mark. They have repurchased nearly 12% of their shares in the past five years.
那么，我们看看分析师怎么说。利润增长稳定且可以接受，未来四年几乎翻倍，从550增至1015。这是非常好的每股收益增长。至于营收，则是稳步增长。营收增长为180亿、210亿、240亿、280亿和320亿美元。未来四年每年都是两位数增长。很好。
So, let's see what the analysts say. Stable and acceptable growth in profits, nearly doubling from 550 to 1015 over the next four years. This is very good growth in earnings per share.
As for revenues, there is steady growth. $18, $21, $24, $28, and $32 billion in revenue growth. Double-digit growth every year for the next four years. Good.
各位，你们知道我们现在要做什么。我们会把它输入我们的股票分析工具。好，各位，我们来看看这家公司未来十年的情况。我在营收增长估计上更保守。我选择了6%、9%和12%的百分比。对于利润率和自由现金流利润率，我用了相同的数字。
26、29和33。我选择的数字低于所有这些，假设它们的利润会略有下降，尽管它们非常稳定。
You know what we have to do now, guys. We will put it into our stock analysis tool. Okay guys, let's take a look at this company over the next ten years. I was more conservative in my revenue growth estimates.
I chose percentages of 6, 9, and 12%. For profit margin and free cash flow margin, I used the same figures. 26, 29, and 33. I chose numbers lower than all of these, assuming that they would decline slightly in their profits, even though they were very stable.
接下来是盈利倍数。各位，高且稳定的资本回报率。这是一家高质量的企业，资产负债表强劲。我会填入17、20和23。另一个原因是我钦佩他们所处的领域。他们提供的服务是其他所有人都在回避的，因为其他所有人都试图专注于高利润率的芯片行业。
Next, the earnings multiple. Guys, high and consistent returns on capital. This is a high-quality business with a strong balance sheet. I would put 17, 20, and 23. The other reason is that I admire the field they work in.
They are providing a service that everyone else is avoiding because everyone else is trying to focus on the high-margin chip sector.
最后，我的9.5%回报率，该股目前为188。我按下了分析按钮。我得到的低价是50，高价是130，平均价是83。
Finally, my 9.5% return, the stock is currently at 188. I pressed the analyze button. I got a low price of 50, a high price of 130, and an average price of 83
这个频道对 $KLAC 的历次判断
Everything Money 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。