Coca-Cola is a buying opportunity at current prices: revenue growth beat PepsiCo's since the reopening and should stay stronger for three years, and its 32% margin, near a record, is more than double PepsiCo's. At a forward P/E of 24, an $86.61 fair value vs an $85.80 price leaves it fairly valued.
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Comparing Coca-Cola and Pepsi-Cola is an interesting matter. They offer similar products to the same customer groups and in similar regions of the world. However, Coca-Cola shares are trading near their highest level in 52 weeks, while Pepsi-Cola shares are trading near their lowest level in 52 weeks.
I found this situation really interesting, so I wanted to make a direct comparison and share with you the differences between these two companies, the reason for the large discrepancy in their valuations, and which one I see as a better buy today at current market prices.
Both have achieved strong revenue growth since economic reopening, but Coca-Cola's growth has been more pronounced. Remember that Coca-Cola has a larger market share in out-of-home sales channels.
Since the economic reopening, people have been spending more time and money outside the home, in restaurants, parks, cinemas, and sports complexes, and this has been great news for Coca-Cola.
Overall, Pepsi-Cola's revenue is larger than Coca-Cola's due to its strong snack business, but revenue growth has been better for Coca-Cola, and I expect Coca-Cola's revenue growth to continue to be better than Pepsi-Cola's over the next three years.
One of the biggest differences you will notice between them is in profitability, and this has been the biggest complaint of Pepsi-Cola stock investors who urge the management team to work with a model similar to Coca-Cola's, because Coca-Cola achieves significantly better profitability.
With profit margins approaching 32%, Coca-Cola's margins are nearing record levels and are more than double those of Pepsi-Cola.
Coca-Cola's profit margin has improved from 20% to 32%, while Pepsi-Cola's margins have declined from 17% to 15.5 % over the past decade. The difference in operating models is due to the manufacturing relationships between the bottling companies, distribution networks, and retailers with whom Coca-Cola has cultivated relationships over decades.
This has resulted in outstanding profit margin performance for Coca-Cola, and it's not limited to the three or six months in which Coca-Cola outperformed Pepsi. Rather, it is over the past decade, and you can clearly see that difference in the graph.
Over the course of the entire decade, Coca-Cola outperformed Pepsi-Cola in operating profitability.
When measured based on returns on invested capital, which takes into account the amount of capital a company invests and the return on that investment, it provides a more accurate performance comparison .
However, in recent years Coca-Cola has been ahead by 17.9% compared to 14.5% for Pepsi-Cola.
In addition , since 2020, Coca-Cola's performance has been improving while Pepsi-Cola's performance has been fluctuating and declining. Again, this most likely points to that difference in consumer behavior.
Coca-Cola benefits from out-of-home sales channels, and people are less interested in healthy choices when they are enjoying themselves, being out of the house, and with friends and family.
You won't find mixed juices at Disneyland, a movie theater, or a football stadium, right? You'll find beer, sugary drinks, salty snacks, and more, which puts Coca-Cola in a favorable position.
She stated that there are two major differences between Coca-Cola and Pepsi-Cola. One of them is the operating profit margin . The other is valuation when measured based on the future price of earnings.
You can see that gap widening this year as Coca-Cola's valuation has improved to a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 24, while Pepsi-Cola is trading at a valuation that is cheaper and cheaper.
For Coca-Cola, a fair value of $86.61 was calculated compared to a market price of $85.80. The stock appears fairly valued when measured by valuation multiples or when measured by discounted cash flow models .
However, I classify both as buying opportunities. I think the risk-to-reward ratio is attractive in both companies.
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Parkev Tatevosian, CFA has 2 calls on this stock; only the adjacent ones are shown.