$KO

可口可乐在当前价位是买入机会:重新开放以来其营收增长跑赢百事,且预计未来三年仍将保持更强增长;其32%的利润率接近历史纪录,是百事的两倍多。按24倍远期市盈率计算,86.61美元的公允价值对85.80美元的股价,估值合理。

看涨他说的是几年内
《Better Buy: PepsiCo or Coca-Cola?》
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA发布 2026-10-12 · 15 段内容
00:00/ —打开原视频

逐段跳播

15 段内容
0:006:16

把可口可乐和百事可乐放在一起比较是件很有意思的事。它们向相同的客户群体、在世界上相似的地区提供类似的产品。不过,可口可乐的股价目前接近52周以来的最高水平,而百事可乐的股价则接近52周以来的最低水平。

Comparing Coca-Cola and Pepsi-Cola is an interesting matter. They offer similar products to the same customer groups and in similar regions of the world. However, Coca-Cola shares are trading near their highest level in 52 weeks, while Pepsi-Cola shares are trading near their lowest level in 52 weeks.

我觉得这种情况非常有意思,所以我想做一次直接对比,和大家分享这两家公司之间的差异、它们估值出现巨大差距的原因,以及在当前市场价格下我认为哪一家更值得买入。

I found this situation really interesting, so I wanted to make a direct comparison and share with you the differences between these two companies, the reason for the large discrepancy in their valuations, and which one I see as a better buy today at current market prices.

自经济重启以来,两家公司都实现了强劲的营收增长,但可口可乐的增长更为显著。要记住,可口可乐在户外消费渠道拥有更大的市场份额。

Both have achieved strong revenue growth since economic reopening, but Coca-Cola's growth has been more pronounced. Remember that Coca-Cola has a larger market share in out-of-home sales channels.

自经济重启以来,人们在户外、在餐厅、公园、电影院和体育场馆花费了更多的时间和金钱,这对可口可乐来说是个重大利好。

Since the economic reopening, people have been spending more time and money outside the home, in restaurants, parks, cinemas, and sports complexes, and this has been great news for Coca-Cola.

总体来看,由于百事可乐拥有强大的零食业务,其营收规模大于可口可乐,但营收增长方面可口可乐表现更好,而且我预计,未来三年可口可乐的营收增长将继续好于百事可乐。

Overall, Pepsi-Cola's revenue is larger than Coca-Cola's due to its strong snack business, but revenue growth has been better for Coca-Cola, and I expect Coca-Cola's revenue growth to continue to be better than Pepsi-Cola's over the next three years.

你会发现它们之间最大的差异之一在于盈利能力,这也一直是百事可乐股票投资者最大的不满,他们敦促管理层采用类似可口可乐的模式,因为可口可乐的盈利能力明显更好。

One of the biggest differences you will notice between them is in profitability, and this has been the biggest complaint of Pepsi-Cola stock investors who urge the management team to work with a model similar to Coca-Cola's, because Coca-Cola achieves significantly better profitability.

可口可乐的利润率接近32%,已逼近历史最高水平,且是百事可乐的两倍多。

With profit margins approaching 32%, Coca-Cola's margins are nearing record levels and are more than double those of Pepsi-Cola.

过去十年间,可口可乐的利润率从20%提升至32%,而百事可乐的利润率则从17%下降至15.5%。运营模式的差异源于装瓶公司、分销网络和零售商之间的生产合作关系,而可口可乐与这些伙伴的关系是经过数十年培育起来的。

Coca-Cola's profit margin has improved from 20% to 32%, while Pepsi-Cola's margins have declined from 17% to 15.5 % over the past decade. The difference in operating models is due to the manufacturing relationships between the bottling companies, distribution networks, and retailers with whom Coca-Cola has cultivated relationships over decades.

这为可口可乐带来了出色的利润率表现,而且这并不局限于可口可乐跑赢百事可乐的那三个月或六个月。而是在过去整整十年间,你可以在图表中清楚地看到这一差距。在整个十年里,可口可乐在经营盈利能力上都跑赢了百事可乐。

This has resulted in outstanding profit margin performance for Coca-Cola, and it's not limited to the three or six months in which Coca-Cola outperformed Pepsi. Rather, it is over the past decade, and you can clearly see that difference in the graph.

Over the course of the entire decade, Coca-Cola outperformed Pepsi-Cola in operating profitability.

如果用投入资本回报率来衡量——这一指标考虑了公司投入的资本规模以及这些投资的回报——它能提供更准确的业绩比较。不过近年来可口可乐以17.9%领先于百事可乐的14.5%。

When measured based on returns on invested capital, which takes into account the amount of capital a company invests and the return on that investment, it provides a more accurate performance comparison .

However, in recent years Coca-Cola has been ahead by 17.9% compared to 14.5% for Pepsi-Cola.

此外,自2020年以来,可口可乐的表现一直在改善,而百事可乐的表现则起伏不定并呈下滑趋势。这很可能再次指向消费者行为上的差异。可口可乐受益于户外消费渠道,而人们在享受生活、走出家门、与亲友相聚时,对健康选择就没那么感兴趣了。

In addition , since 2020, Coca-Cola's performance has been improving while Pepsi-Cola's performance has been fluctuating and declining. Again, this most likely points to that difference in consumer behavior.

Coca-Cola benefits from out-of-home sales channels, and people are less interested in healthy choices when they are enjoying themselves, being out of the house, and with friends and family.

你在迪士尼乐园、电影院或足球场里是找不到混合果汁的,对吧?你能找到的是啤酒、含糖饮料、咸味零食等等,这让可口可乐处于有利地位。

You won't find mixed juices at Disneyland, a movie theater, or a football stadium, right? You'll find beer, sugary drinks, salty snacks, and more, which puts Coca-Cola in a favorable position.

她表示,可口可乐和百事可乐之间有两个主要差异。其一是营业利润率。其二是按未来盈利价格衡量的估值。你可以看到今年这一差距在扩大,可口可乐的估值已改善至24倍的预期市盈率,而百事可乐的交易估值则越来越便宜。

She stated that there are two major differences between Coca-Cola and Pepsi-Cola. One of them is the operating profit margin . The other is valuation when measured based on the future price of earnings.

You can see that gap widening this year as Coca-Cola's valuation has improved to a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 24, while Pepsi-Cola is trading at a valuation that is cheaper and cheaper.

对于Coca-Cola,计算出的公允价值为86.61美元,而市场价格为85.80美元。无论以估值倍数衡量,还是以现金流折现模型衡量,该股看起来都处于合理估值水平。

For Coca-Cola, a fair value of $86.61 was calculated compared to a market price of $85.80. The stock appears fairly valued when measured by valuation multiples or when measured by discounted cash flow models .

不过,我把这两者都归类为买入机会。我认为这两家公司的风险回报比都很有吸引力。

However, I classify both as buying opportunities. I think the risk-to-reward ratio is attractive in both companies.

观察点

可口可乐的营收增长与百事可乐在季度业绩中的对比
可口可乐的营收增长持续快于百事可乐
未来三年内季度财报
支持买入机会的观点

这个频道对 $KO 的历次判断

Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

2026-10-12看涨本条
把可口可乐和百事可乐放在一起比较是件很有意思的事。它们向相同的客户群体、在世界上相似的地区提供类似的产品。
2026-10-10看涨
近年来,可口可乐受益于消费者越来越频繁地走出家门。
原话 00:00 ›
看完整历史 ›
跨洋听风