Mark Roussin, CPA on $MELI (Nov 1, 2026)
MELI is owned by the speaker; after a Brazil-election selloff left it down nearly 20% on the year, he asks whether the election changed its long-term competitive position—what he says matters—and notes its Latin American e-commerce/fintech ecosystem and expansion. He finds the sell-off interesting because a lower price with intact long-term revenue and earnings would make valuation more attractive; he likes 29x with more than 40% earnings growth expected each of the next 2 years and cites a $2,160 average analyst target implying roughly 30% upside.
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And this is a company that I not only own, but they experienced significant selling pressure following Brazil's presidential election. It was a shock. And here's what happened.
The election outcome surprised investors. Markets. They had been anticipating a different political result. And the reelection of President Lula created concerns surrounding fiscal policy, interest rates, and the Brazilian currency.
And because Brazil represents such an important market for Marcato Libre, the stock came under intense pressure. As you can see here on your screen, the stock is down nearly 20% on the year with a lot of pressure this past week alone.
For me, I last purchased Melly in May and beginning of June. The May shares, they're up roughly 5% and June shares, they're now flat following last week's dip.
But here's my question. Did the election result fundamentally change Marcato Libre's long-term competitive position? Because that's what matters to me. Marcato Libre remains one of the most important e-commerce and financial tech companies in Latin America.
Its ecosystem includes Marcato Libre Marketplace, Marcato Pago, logistics, advertising, and a growing financial services business. And I believe the integration of those businesses creates a meaningful competitive advantage.
Customers can shop, make payments, access financing, and use delivery services within the same ecosystem.
In fact, Marcato Libre has continued expanding its business across several Latin American markets. And that's why I find the recent sell-off interesting. If the stock price declines significantly while the company's long-term revenue and earnings potential remains largely intact, the valuation could become more attractive.
This is a company that is expected to generate more than 40% earnings growth each of the next 2 years while trading at a 29x multiple. I love that valuation. And here's a look at analyst 12-month price target, which they have an average of $2,160, implying roughly 30% upside from current levels.
Marcato Libre provides exposure to e-commerce and financial technology in Latin America.
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Mark Roussin, CPA has 4 calls on this stock; only the adjacent ones are shown.