$MELI · Mark Roussin, CPA · 2026-11-01
说话者持有MELI；在巴西大选引发的抛售后，该股年内下跌近20%，他追问这场大选是否改变了其长期竞争地位——他认为这才是关键——并提到其拉美电商/金融科技生态及扩张。他认为这轮抛售值得关注，因为若长期营收和盈利保持完好，更低的价格会使估值更具吸引力；他看好29倍市盈率，同时预计未来两年每年盈利增长超过40%，并援引分析师平均目标价2,160美元，意味着约30%的上行空间。
逐段跳播
这是一家我不仅持有、而且它在巴西总统选举后遭遇了巨大抛售压力的公司。那是一次冲击。事情是这样的：选举结果让投资者感到意外。市场此前一直预期的是另一种政治结果。总统 Lula 的连任引发了对财政政策、利率和巴西货币的担忧。
而由于巴西对 Marcato Libre 来说是一个如此重要的市场，这只股票承受了巨大压力。正如你在屏幕上看到的，该股今年下跌了近20%，仅上周就承受了很大压力。
And this is a company that I not only own, but they experienced significant selling pressure following Brazil's presidential election. It was a shock. And here's what happened.
The election outcome surprised investors. Markets. They had been anticipating a different political result. And the reelection of President Lula created concerns surrounding fiscal policy, interest rates, and the Brazilian currency.
And because Brazil represents such an important market for Marcato Libre, the stock came under intense pressure. As you can see here on your screen, the stock is down nearly 20% on the year with a lot of pressure this past week alone.
对我来说，我上一次买入 Melly 是在5月和6月初。5月买入的股份大约上涨了5%，而6月买入的股份在上周下跌之后现在持平。
For me, I last purchased Melly in May and beginning of June. The May shares, they're up roughly 5% and June shares, they're now flat following last week's dip.
但我的问题是：选举结果从根本上改变了 Marcato Libre 的长期竞争地位吗？因为那才是我关心的。Marcato Libre 仍然是拉丁美洲最重要的电商和金融科技公司之一。
它的生态系统包括 Marcato Libre Marketplace、Marcato Pago、物流、广告以及不断增长的金融服务业务。我相信这些业务的整合创造了有意义的竞争优势。
顾客可以在同一个生态系统内购物、支付、获得融资并使用配送服务。
But here's my question. Did the election result fundamentally change Marcato Libre's long-term competitive position? Because that's what matters to me. Marcato Libre remains one of the most important e-commerce and financial tech companies in Latin America.
Its ecosystem includes Marcato Libre Marketplace, Marcato Pago, logistics, advertising, and a growing financial services business. And I believe the integration of those businesses creates a meaningful competitive advantage.
Customers can shop, make payments, access financing, and use delivery services within the same ecosystem.
事实上，Marcato Libre 一直在持续拓展其在多个拉美市场的业务。正因如此，我觉得近期的抛售很有意思。如果股价大幅下跌，而公司的长期营收和盈利潜力基本保持不变，那么估值可能会变得更有吸引力。
In fact, Marcato Libre has continued expanding its business across several Latin American markets. And that's why I find the recent sell-off interesting. If the stock price declines significantly while the company's long-term revenue and earnings potential remains largely intact, the valuation could become more attractive.
这家公司预计未来两年每年的盈利增速都将超过40%，而目前的市盈率是29倍。我很喜欢这个估值。再看分析师的12个月目标价，平均为2,160美元，意味着较当前水平大约有30%的上涨空间。
This is a company that is expected to generate more than 40% earnings growth each of the next 2 years while trading at a 29x multiple. I love that valuation. And here's a look at analyst 12-month price target, which they have an average of $2,160, implying roughly 30% upside from current levels.
Marcato Libre 提供了参与拉美电商和金融科技的投资敞口。
Marcato Libre provides exposure to e-commerce and financial technology in Latin America.
这个频道对 $MELI 的历次判断
Mark Roussin, CPA 在这只股票上共 4 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。