MSTR trades at an NAV discount to BTC; expected to perform well when market euphoria returns.

The gainers over the last 30 days exactly on Solana and MicroStrategy are identical at 18% over the period. Also, the return on MicroStrategy is more than double the return on Bitcoin.

That's what happens with MicroStrategy. It runs faster upwards in the bull and it falls faster downwards in the bear.

It can be quite painful if you are a top buyer of MicroStrategy and I know they exist because they've been complaining to me all the bear market. It's like, "Oh, I bought I bought MicroStrategy at 520 and 450 and everything."

I said, "Yes, that's bloody painful. But don't ever do that."

Now, speaking of proxies, strategy, uh they bought 334 Bitcoin. A couple of things to point out here looking through their AK, uh again, 334 is not a big buy, but they took us up to a very even number, 848,000, which is an all-time high bag size for MicroStrategy.

The other important news, too, is their gainers on their bag is 20.91 billion dollars. That's not bad. Their average price is about 75K and the price of Bitcoin is about 85K. They bought, by the way, about 85,800 to 334 Bitcoin.

They got to find a way to get better get better deals on their OTC desks.

And they also bought back 176 million of STRC, but they used a combination of ATM and cash to buy. So, they used 15.7 million of ATM issuing shares and 13 million of USD cash.

As I've been saying, I think it's a fool's errand to buy back too much STRC. Let the markets do their thing. And also, don't dilute the stock, for goodness sake. Don't. Wait. Burn some of that cash.

You don't need like four or five billion dollars in cash in your balance sheet, either. It's a melting ice cube. Stick it into Bitcoin. Boom. That's what I would do, but that's just me.

Now, another kind of fun news, too. Although Strategy's Bitcoin bag has hit an all-time high in the so-called execution of accumulation playbook, whatever they call it. We were at 846,500 Bitcoin in June 2026.

So, we're only What's that? 1,500 higher uh today in October? So, we have We've had this real flat part, and I'm hoping they'll go into high gear. I'm hoping they'll deploy some of that cash, because now is the time to buy Bitcoin, okay?

80K, 85K. Don't go deploying the cash when it's 110, 120K. That would not be a good idea. And wait for the craziness to come back like when the I bid buyers come in then you get a frothy market then you get lots enough premium sell the crap out of that and use it to buy Bitcoin.

That's the model. So say that friend of the channel if you're listening that's what I would do and again I'm just a crazy guy in the interest so ignore me

and more orange than ever I think that means more Bitcoin holdings than ever not the biggest buy by any stretch of the imagination so that's what that one meant it confused me about yesterday I wasn't sure what he meant I felt new record bag of Bitcoin but then you never know how much they actually ATM but not that much but the stack is firmly in profit.

They've bought I think I think they've bought Bitcoin 116 times since inception since August 2020 and I've been watching them like a hawk and my first trade was in September 2020 so long-term fan of the product

this is another interesting thing as a pair trader I love looking at pairs this is plotting MicroStrategy against Bitcoin spot pricing and it highlights a few things that are very interesting so if you imagine all of these observations from the beginning of time and the different Bitcoin prices let me try and explain carefully what it means each green dot is the pair they started buying around 10K do you remember when Bitcoin was 10K?

Anyway I dropped to have you bought Bitcoin at 10K so and I remember during March 2020 fell as low as $4,000 what a beautiful time that's why that's why you always need cash on hand cuz you never know when markets will become completely irrational anyhow

each green dot is the pair at a average of time the white line is the average of all the observations over time benchmarked against Bitcoin price now the reason I'm sharing this right now is if you look at the red dot, that is the price of MicroStrategy today about $164, $162 give or take two bucks.

This is about $164, $165 right now. And you compare that to the average of all the observations, technically, if we are at an average pair price between MicroStrategy and Bitcoin, the price of MicroStrategy would be 254 bucks.

But we're not. Again, we're still trading at an NAV discount. So, that's not cool. But again, once the euphoric times come back, I do expect good things to hit. Um but we're at the low end of the range right now in terms of the NAV premium.

Speaking of NAV premium, this is my HODL model. If you look at my calculations of MicroStrategy, by the way, I throw in their HODL assets, I add the cash too to the HODL assets, you get an NAV premium of 0.73.

So, if you're buying MicroStrategy shares, technically, you could argue you're getting a 27% discount on your Bitcoin.

MNAV trackers, watch my huddle model, and watch the MicroStrategy dilution. They are the things that I watch in this space.