MSTR 相对 BTC 存在 NAV 折价，预计在市场狂热情绪回归时表现良好。
逐段跳播
过去30天里，Solana和MicroStrategy的涨幅完全相同，在这一期间均为18%。另外，MicroStrategy的回报是比特币回报的两倍多。MicroStrategy就是这样：牛市里它涨得更快，熊市里它跌得也更快。
The gainers over the last 30 days exactly on Solana and MicroStrategy are identical at 18% over the period. Also, the return on MicroStrategy is more than double the return on Bitcoin.
That's what happens with MicroStrategy. It runs faster upwards in the bull and it falls faster downwards in the bear.
如果你是MicroStrategy的高位买家，那会相当痛苦，我知道这样的人存在，因为整个熊市期间他们一直在向我抱怨。他们会说：“哦，我在520和450的时候买了MicroStrategy，还有其他的。”
我说：“是的，那真是痛苦得要命。但千万别那么做。”
It can be quite painful if you are a top buyer of MicroStrategy and I know they exist because they've been complaining to me all the bear market. It's like, "Oh, I bought I bought MicroStrategy at 520 and 450 and everything."
I said, "Yes, that's bloody painful. But don't ever do that."
说到代理标的，Strategy买入了334枚比特币。这里有几件事要指出，翻看他们的AK文件，同样，334不算大笔买入，但他们把持仓推到了一个非常整齐的数字，848,000，这是MicroStrategy有史以来最高的持仓规模。
Now, speaking of proxies, strategy, uh they bought 334 Bitcoin. A couple of things to point out here looking through their AK, uh again, 334 is not a big buy, but they took us up to a very even number, 848,000, which is an all-time high bag size for MicroStrategy.
另一条重要消息是，他们持仓的浮盈为209.1亿美元。这还不错。他们的平均成本约为75K，而比特币价格约为85K。顺便说一句，他们买入约85,800到334枚比特币。他们得想办法在OTC交易台上拿到更好的价格。
The other important news, too, is their gainers on their bag is 20.91 billion dollars. That's not bad. Their average price is about 75K and the price of Bitcoin is about 85K. They bought, by the way, about 85,800 to 334 Bitcoin.
They got to find a way to get better get better deals on their OTC desks.
他们还回购了1.76亿美元的STRC，但用的是ATM和现金的组合来买入。他们动用了1,570万美元的ATM发行股票和1,300万美元的美元现金。
And they also bought back 176 million of STRC, but they used a combination of ATM and cash to buy. So, they used 15.7 million of ATM issuing shares and 13 million of USD cash.
正如我一直说的，我认为回购太多STRC是徒劳之举。让市场自行其是。而且，看在上帝的份上，不要稀释股票。不要。等等。烧掉一部分现金。你资产负债表上也不需要四五十亿美元的现金。那是一块正在融化的冰块。
把它投进比特币。砰。这就是我会做的，但这只是我个人的看法。
As I've been saying, I think it's a fool's errand to buy back too much STRC. Let the markets do their thing. And also, don't dilute the stock, for goodness sake. Don't. Wait. Burn some of that cash.
You don't need like four or five billion dollars in cash in your balance sheet, either. It's a melting ice cube. Stick it into Bitcoin. Boom. That's what I would do, but that's just me.
现在还有一条挺有意思的消息。尽管Strategy的比特币持仓在所谓的增持操作手册的执行中创下了历史新高，不管他们怎么称呼它。2026年6月我们持有846,500枚比特币。所以，我们今天在10月只高出多少？
1,500枚？所以，我们经历了一段真正横盘的时期，我希望他们能进入高速档。我希望他们能部署一部分现金，因为现在正是买入比特币的时候，好吗？80K、85K。别等到110K、120K的时候才去部署现金。
那可不是个好主意。等着疯狂重新回来，就像当那些竞标买家进场时，市场变得狂热，你就能拿到足够多的溢价，把它狠狠地卖出去，然后用它来买比特币。这就是模式。所以，如果你是频道的朋友，正在听，这就是我会做的，再说一次，我只是个感兴趣的疯子，别理我。
Now, another kind of fun news, too. Although Strategy's Bitcoin bag has hit an all-time high in the so-called execution of accumulation playbook, whatever they call it. We were at 846,500 Bitcoin in June 2026.
So, we're only What's that? 1,500 higher uh today in October? So, we have We've had this real flat part, and I'm hoping they'll go into high gear. I'm hoping they'll deploy some of that cash, because now is the time to buy Bitcoin, okay?
80K, 85K. Don't go deploying the cash when it's 110, 120K. That would not be a good idea. And wait for the craziness to come back like when the I bid buyers come in then you get a frothy market then you get lots enough premium sell the crap out of that and use it to buy Bitcoin.
That's the model. So say that friend of the channel if you're listening that's what I would do and again I'm just a crazy guy in the interest so ignore me
而且比以往任何时候都更“橙色”，我认为这意味着比特币持仓比以往任何时候都多，但绝不是想象中那种最大规模的买入，所以那个数字就是这个意思，昨天它让我很困惑，我不确定他是什么意思，我觉得是比特币持仓创下新纪录，但你永远不知道他们实际通过ATM买了多少，不过也没那么多，但持仓稳稳处于盈利状态。
and more orange than ever I think that means more Bitcoin holdings than ever not the biggest buy by any stretch of the imagination so that's what that one meant it confused me about yesterday I wasn't sure what he meant I felt new record bag of Bitcoin but then you never know how much they actually ATM but not that much but the stack is firmly in profit.
他们自2020年8月成立以来，我想他们买入比特币已有116次，我一直像鹰一样盯着他们，我的第一笔交易是在2020年9月，所以我是这个产品的长期粉丝。
They've bought I think I think they've bought Bitcoin 116 times since inception since August 2020 and I've been watching them like a hawk and my first trade was in September 2020 so long-term fan of the product
这是另一件有趣的事，作为一名配对交易者，我喜欢看配对，这里把MicroStrategy与比特币现货价格对照绘制，它凸显了几件非常有趣的事。所以，如果你想象从最初以来的所有这些观测值和不同的比特币价格，让我试着仔细解释这意味着什么。
每个绿点都是他们开始买入时的配对，大约在10K左右，你还记得比特币10K的时候吗？
this is another interesting thing as a pair trader I love looking at pairs this is plotting MicroStrategy against Bitcoin spot pricing and it highlights a few things that are very interesting so if you imagine all of these observations from the beginning of time and the different Bitcoin prices let me try and explain carefully what it means each green dot is the pair they started buying around 10K do you remember when Bitcoin was 10K?
总之，我顺便问一下，你在10K的时候买过比特币吗？我记得2020年3月它一度跌到4,000美元，多么美好的时光，这就是为什么你手头总要留现金，因为你永远不知道市场什么时候会变得完全不理性。
Anyway I dropped to have you bought Bitcoin at 10K so and I remember during March 2020 fell as low as $4,000 what a beautiful time that's why that's why you always need cash on hand cuz you never know when markets will become completely irrational anyhow
每个绿点都是某个时点上的配对平均值，白线是所有观测值随时间对照比特币价格的平均值。我现在分享这个的原因是，如果你看那个红点，那就是MicroStrategy今天的价格，大约164美元、162美元，上下浮动两美元。
现在大约是164、165美元。你把它与所有观测值的平均值相比，从技术上讲，如果我们处于MicroStrategy与比特币的平均配对价格，MicroStrategy的价格应该是254美元。
each green dot is the pair at a average of time the white line is the average of all the observations over time benchmarked against Bitcoin price now the reason I'm sharing this right now is if you look at the red dot, that is the price of MicroStrategy today about $164, $162 give or take two bucks.
This is about $164, $165 right now. And you compare that to the average of all the observations, technically, if we are at an average pair price between MicroStrategy and Bitcoin, the price of MicroStrategy would be 254 bucks.
但我们没有。再说一次，我们仍在以NAV折价交易。所以，这可不妙。但再说一次，一旦狂热的时期回来，我确实预期会有好事发生。不过就NAV溢价而言，我们现在处于区间的低端。
But we're not. Again, we're still trading at an NAV discount. So, that's not cool. But again, once the euphoric times come back, I do expect good things to hit. Um but we're at the low end of the range right now in terms of the NAV premium.
说到NAV溢价，这是我的HODL模型。如果你看我对比特币的计算，顺便说一句，我把他们的HODL资产算进去，我也把现金加到HODL资产里，你得到0.73的NAV溢价。所以，如果你买入MicroStrategy股票，从技术上讲，你可以说你是在以27%的折扣买入比特币。
Speaking of NAV premium, this is my HODL model. If you look at my calculations of MicroStrategy, by the way, I throw in their HODL assets, I add the cash too to the HODL assets, you get an NAV premium of 0.73.
So, if you're buying MicroStrategy shares, technically, you could argue you're getting a 27% discount on your Bitcoin.
MNAV追踪指标，关注我的huddle模型，并关注MicroStrategy的稀释。这些就是我在这个领域关注的东西。
MNAV trackers, watch my huddle model, and watch the MicroStrategy dilution. They are the things that I watch in this space.
这个频道对 $MSTR 的历次判断
InvestAnswers 在这只股票上共 9 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。