MU has reservations; terminal growth rate expected to stay negative due to DRAM price compression outweighs low PEG valuation.

Oh man, it is the morning after Micron earnings. Of course, it's got to be the top of the bottom. And the question now is what are people going to do with it?

Oh, Micron going green is so important. Oh, that's great. Micron going green is is uh very good. You did not want a giant red candlestick on this. It's still a little early, but first four minutes, that's good. I like to see that.

I personally, you know, I have my reservations about Micron, but we'll see. We don't want to come to conclusions yet until our uh 640 time frame. But let's put it this way. this thing falls off a cliff.

Um, it's bad for the entire market today, but we'll see.

still a bleed here on Micron. So, not a surprise that the Q's are giving up some of their lead. This was our test today is can we actually get directional positivity on Micron.

I'm not very positive on Micron and that's not to offend anybody that owns Micron, but I have my own opinions on it. But I do think that Micron is a driver of the market today.

Still stable here on Micron. It's actually not as bearish as it could have been. Bearish to me would have been. Certainly losing 1019, but also getting underg -2%. We have not gotten under negative -2.

So, this is good. We're stabiliz stabilizing on Micron is fine, too. Yeah, especially with with the DRAM commentary, but anyway, that's topic for later.

And so as a result, Micron now under that 2% level.

I said look going into Micron earnings the one thing you have to pay attention to is what the estimates are going to do for 2028.

Okay, so uh looking at Micron again. So for the purposes uh we are still down 3%. This is bearish for the day. Uh we really wanted this to stabilize aboveg -2%. And so now it's down uh down about 3%.

So, he says Micro is textbook definition of market manipulation. Why? just because people decide, hey, you know, it's uh growth is peeking out. That's what it is is people think growth is peeking out for these.

So, if I go look at Micron and I look at the forecast earnings, you're going to see EPS growth turns negative. Uh, and by see, I mean you're going to hear me say it turns negative.

Maybe I'm giving you fake numbers, fake news. All right, earnings growth is expected to be 121% 20.8% 1.7% -3%. So that still works out to 32.6 times on Micron if you average out all those four years which is pretty volatile.

Uh you know which does suggest that Micron is trading for an even lower peg than than a lot of these other plays because their EPS is expected to be 166 bucks. You know, this is like the definition of dirt cheap.

But the problem is the terminal growth rate. People think the terminal growth rate is going to stay negative for a while and that they won't have the pricing power to offset because otherwise I mean this is technically on a peg bas basis very very cheap too.

But it comes down to what's that terminal growth rate you're willing to utilize.

And for the RAM plays when they start talking about DRAM price compression in the future. Yeah, that's exactly that's talking right up the same tree that people are nervous about.

It's why I haven't been super jazzed about Micron. And I even said this in our alpha report before. People are like, "Oh, Kevin, should I buy Micron before?" They're like, "I don't know what you should do."

But I'm not jumping up and down about uh Micron.

It's not just Micron.