对 MU 持保留态度；由于 DRAM 价格压缩的影响超过低 PEG 估值的支撑，预计终端增长率将维持负值。
逐段跳播
天哪，现在是 Micron 财报后的第二天早上。当然，这肯定是底部的顶部。现在的问题是，人们会拿它怎么办？
Oh man, it is the morning after Micron earnings. Of course, it's got to be the top of the bottom. And the question now is what are people going to do with it?
Micron 转绿太重要了。哦，太好了。Micron 转绿是非常好的。你绝不希望在这上面看到一根巨大的红色蜡烛。现在还有点早，但头四分钟，这很好。我喜欢看到这个。
Oh, Micron going green is so important. Oh, that's great. Micron going green is is uh very good. You did not want a giant red candlestick on this. It's still a little early, but first four minutes, that's good. I like to see that.
就我个人而言，我对 Micron 有所保留，但我们再看吧。在到我们的 640 时间框架之前，我们还不想下结论。但这么说吧，这东西要是直线跳水，对今天整个市场都是坏事，但我们再看吧。
I personally, you know, I have my reservations about Micron, but we'll see. We don't want to come to conclusions yet until our uh 640 time frame. But let's put it this way. this thing falls off a cliff.
Um, it's bad for the entire market today, but we'll see.
Micron 这里还在失血。所以，Q's 让出一些领先优势并不意外。这就是我们今天的考验：我们能不能在 Micron 上真正看到方向性的正面表现。我对 Micron 并不太乐观，这不是要冒犯任何持有 Micron 的人，但我有自己的看法。
不过我确实认为，Micron 是今天市场的驱动因素。
still a bleed here on Micron. So, not a surprise that the Q's are giving up some of their lead. This was our test today is can we actually get directional positivity on Micron.
I'm not very positive on Micron and that's not to offend anybody that owns Micron, but I have my own opinions on it. But I do think that Micron is a driver of the market today.
Micron 这里仍然稳定。它其实没有本来可能那么看空。对我来说，看空会是——当然跌破 1019，而且还跌到 -2% 以下。我们还没有跌破 -2%。所以，这是好事。我们在 Micron 上企稳也没问题。
是的，尤其是考虑到 DRAM 方面的评论，不过算了，那是以后的话题。
Still stable here on Micron. It's actually not as bearish as it could have been. Bearish to me would have been. Certainly losing 1019, but also getting underg -2%. We have not gotten under negative -2.
So, this is good. We're stabiliz stabilizing on Micron is fine, too. Yeah, especially with with the DRAM commentary, but anyway, that's topic for later.
所以结果就是，Micron 现在跌破了 2% 这个水平。
And so as a result, Micron now under that 2% level.
我说过，进入 Micron 财报，你唯一必须关注的一件事就是 2028 年的预期会怎么走。
I said look going into Micron earnings the one thing you have to pay attention to is what the estimates are going to do for 2028.
好，再来看 Micron。就目前而言，我们还跌着 3%。这对今天来说是看空的。我们本来真的很希望它能稳定在 -2% 以上。而现在它跌了大约 3%。
Okay, so uh looking at Micron again. So for the purposes uh we are still down 3%. This is bearish for the day. Uh we really wanted this to stabilize aboveg -2%. And so now it's down uh down about 3%.
所以，他说 Micron 是市场操纵的教科书式定义。为什么？就因为人们认定，增长正在见顶。事情就是这样，人们认为这些公司的增长正在见顶。
So, he says Micro is textbook definition of market manipulation. Why? just because people decide, hey, you know, it's uh growth is peeking out. That's what it is is people think growth is peeking out for these.
所以，如果我来看 Micron，看它的预期盈利，你会看到 EPS 增长转为负值。呃，我说的"看到"，是指你会听到我说它转为负值。也许我是在给你假数字、假新闻。好吧，盈利增长预计是 121%、20.8%、1.7%、-3%。
所以，如果你把这四年平均下来，Micron 的市盈率仍然是 32.6 倍，而这波动相当大。
So, if I go look at Micron and I look at the forecast earnings, you're going to see EPS growth turns negative. Uh, and by see, I mean you're going to hear me say it turns negative.
Maybe I'm giving you fake numbers, fake news. All right, earnings growth is expected to be 121% 20.8% 1.7% -3%. So that still works out to 32.6 times on Micron if you average out all those four years which is pretty volatile.
这确实表明，Micron 的 PEG 比很多其他标的还要低，因为它的 EPS 预计是 166 美元。这简直就是便宜到极点的定义。
Uh you know which does suggest that Micron is trading for an even lower peg than than a lot of these other plays because their EPS is expected to be 166 bucks. You know, this is like the definition of dirt cheap.
但问题在于终端增长率。人们认为终端增长率会在一段时间内保持负值，而且他们不会有定价权来抵消，因为否则的话，我的意思是，这在 PEG 基础上技术上也是非常非常便宜的。但归根结底，取决于你愿意采用什么样的终端增长率。
But the problem is the terminal growth rate. People think the terminal growth rate is going to stay negative for a while and that they won't have the pricing power to offset because otherwise I mean this is technically on a peg bas basis very very cheap too.
But it comes down to what's that terminal growth rate you're willing to utilize.
而对于内存概念股来说，当人们开始谈论未来DRAM价格压缩时，没错，那恰恰就是在说同一件让大家感到紧张的事。这也是我一直对Micron不太兴奋的原因。我之前在我们的alpha报告里也说过这一点。
人们会说，"哦，Kevin，我该在之前买Micron吗？"他们会说，"我不知道你该怎么做。"但我对Micron并不雀跃。
And for the RAM plays when they start talking about DRAM price compression in the future. Yeah, that's exactly that's talking right up the same tree that people are nervous about.
It's why I haven't been super jazzed about Micron. And I even said this in our alpha report before. People are like, "Oh, Kevin, should I buy Micron before?" They're like, "I don't know what you should do."
But I'm not jumping up and down about uh Micron.
不只是Micron。
It's not just Micron.
这个频道对 $MU 的历次判断
Meet Kevin 在这只股票上共 4 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。